| Big Ten Preview Week 2 |
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| Written by Stix Symmonds | |||
| Thursday, 09 September 2010 20:07 | |||
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It's hard to believe that we would be talking about football games having national title implications already in week 2. That's exactly what's at stake in stadiums around the country though, and the Big Ten gets to be part of at least two of those games. The time for figuring out what still needs fixing is over for those teams hoping to make a run at the national title. The real business of championships starts right now. Without further ado: here's a look at the Big Ten in week number two!
#2 Ohio State vs #12 Miami (FL) (Game of the Week) Saturday, September 11, 3:40 PM ET Why to Watch: This is one of (if not the) biggest matches of the entire season, let alone the week. Ohio State is in the driver's seat for a shot at the national title, while Miami is in the thick of the hunt for an ACC title and maybe more. It's a game between the best in the Big Ten against the best in the ACC with national title implications all around. It just doesn't get any better than this! Importance of the Game: Without repeating what I just said about national title implications, this is also the first real test for both programs this year. Ohio State is coming off a relatively thumping of Marshall while Miami is following up a similar thrashing of Florida A&M. For all of the talk about conference or national titles, these teams scarcely know what they've really got against real opposition. There will be little doubt when the fourth quarter closes that both of these teams will know what they've got and what their real chances are at reaching their goals. For one of them, the national title will be all but gone. Player(s) to Watch: Of course, the guys getting the most attention this week are OSU's quarterback Terrelle Pryor and Miami's quarterback Jacory Harris. No doubt, this is a fantastic showdown between two of the best quarterbacks in the nation, both of whom have Heisman hopes. The real players to watch though, are the defensive players. I hate to lump them all together, but there' no better way (in my opinion) to look at this game. Both quarterbacks will be phenominal and the run game should be entertaining - if not exciting - but the key to victory lies on the shoulders of the defenses. Whoever can do better at shutting down the run game and getting pressure on the opposing quarterback will have the upper hand. Remember, defense wins championships, as Alabama demonstrated last year. It will be the biggest key to this game, as it is with most. Why Miami might win: Jacory Harris is as good as they come. His 12 of 15, 210 yards, and three touchdown performance last week was just a warm-up. He has a strong cast of receivers, led by Leonard Hankerson, who caught 11 passes a week ago and found the end zone once. There are plenty of options for Harris and Ohio State's defense hasn't had to deal with this level of offensive prowess since they took care of Oregon in the Rose Bowl last January - maybe not even then. You also can't argue with a defense that pitched a shutout, even if that was against Florida A&M. Why Ohio State might win: Terrelle Pryor has really grown a lot over the off-season. He's more comfortable with his passing. More importantly, Jim Tressel appears to be more comfortable with Pryor's passing. It takes a big load off of Pryor's shoulders to be able to concentrate more on passing and allow Brandon Saine to carry the ground load. A solid offensive line should provide plenty of protection for Pryor and create some holes for Saine. The defense is solid and won't get streamrolled by anyone - even Jacory Harris. Intagibles: I'm still hearing the argument that Miami will bring that superior ACC speed to Columbus and run right past Ohio State. If you're one of those that believes this to be true, let me point you back to the Champs Sports Bowl of last year. The same argument was made about Miami against Wisconsin. Wisconsin was not then - nor are they now - the fastest team in the Big Ten. And yet, Miami's "superior speed" was strangly absent from that contest. Wisconsin stayed with Miami step-for-step throughout and never allowed Hurricane receivers to blow past their secondary, nor allowed their running backs to just skip past them. Don't expect Ohio State to be mysteriously slower than the Badgers. It's just not true. The whole notion of superior ACC (or SEC, or Big XII, or Pac-10) speed is a thing of the distant past. The top Big Ten programs have done their part to recruit speedy players of their own and, if those weren't available, they simply employ defensive schemes that negate the speed nicely. Forget about speed. It's a non-issue. The biggest intangible of this game will be pure heart. There's a lot riding on this game and whoever fights harder for longer will likely come away with the victory. It's the Big Ten versus the ACC; top dog against top dog. Don't forget, this is also being played in the Horseshoe. There are few better home field advantages than Columbus, Ohio. What will Happen: Look for an offensive shootout for the first half. Both quarterbacks will showcase their talents against defenses that have yet to face that level of talent. Both Harris and Pryor will have solid numbers and the score may well already be approaching 24-24. The second half will be a completely different contest, however. The defenses will be more comfortable with what they're seeing and adjustments will be made to correct for their deficiencies. This is where we will separate the true contender from the also-ran. This is where the edge begins to show for Ohio State. Harris will still make some exciting plays, but they'll be fewer and will come farther between as the Buckeye secondary locks down on the receivers and start to get a handle on the rush up front. Miami will stay step-for-step for a little while, but in the end, OSU's defense is just a notch better than Miami's. Prediction: Ohio State 38 - Miami 31 #11 Wisconsin vs San Jose State Saturday, September 11, 12:00 PM ET Why to Watch: Wisconsin still has a few questions that need answered. John Clay is just fine, but Scott Tolzien had a less-than-spectacular game a week ago. SJSU may not be a very dangerous opponent, but this is still an important game. Wisconsin doesn't have a lot of time to get everything clicking before the competition gets tougher. Importance of the Game: It's hard to place a lot of importance on a game like this. However, Wisconsin is knocking on the door to a Top 10 ranking in the Coaches Poll (the only available poll that actually figures into the BCS standings). A big win, by a large margin, helps break the Badgers into that coveted Top 10 tier of college football teams. Also, this SJSU team just faced the defending National Champions last week. A larger margin of victory than Alabama had would speak volumes to Wisconsin's true strength already this year. What will Happen: John Clay should have another solid day against a defense that allowed 257 rushing yards by a team that was missing their top rusher. Likewise, Tolzien should find the opposing secondary no better than the one he faced last week. SJSU will be outmatched in this one the same way they were last week. There shouldn't be any surprises here. Prediction: Wisconsin 31 - SJSU 6 Michigan State @ Florida Atlantic Saturday, September 11, 12:00 PM ET Why to Watch: The Spartans showcased a surprisingly effective rush attack last week against Western Michigan. Kirk Cousins however, was merely average passing the ball. Can Michigan State get that pass attack working before they take on Notre Dame next week? Importance of the Game: For Michigan State, this is all about putting together wins that will count toward their bowl stock at the end of the year. They could be a real player in the Big Ten race this year, but won't be strong enough to make a successful run at the title. After a 6-7 season last year, the Spartans need a good start to gain momentum before taking on the top teams in the conference. What will Happen: Florida Atlantic isn't Western Michigan. The Owls came out of last week with an exciting 32-31 victory over UAB. No, it's not the same as coming away with a victory over Michigan or Wisconsin, but it's a nice win and there are weaker opponents out there than UAB. Still, Le'Veon Bell and Edwin Baker are serious weapons on the Spartan offense. UAB can't boast this kind of rush attack backed up by an exciting quarterback like Kirk Cousins. Of course, Michigan State still has Greg Jones on the defensive side of the ball to make life miserable for the Owls. Don't be surprised if FAU makes this game kind of interesting through the first quarter and into the second. Don't expect it to last long, though. Michigan State will control the clock and ultimately control the scoreboard in a handy out-of-conference win. Prediction: Michigan State 30 - Florida Atlantic 13 Purdue vs. Western Illinois Saturday, September 11, 12:00 PM ET Why to Watch: Purdue is still my darling of the Big Ten this year. They faltered a little against Notre Dame last week, but they weren't embarrassed by an Irish team that looks much better than we saw during the Charlie Weiss era. Robert Marve has been thoroughly introduced to Boilermaker football, now it'll be interesting to see how he responds. It'll also be interesting to see if they can get the pass game working. Importance of the Game: Purdue will likely be on the cusp of bowl eligibility. It's games like this one that can help push them over the edge. There's very little room for error. Any unnecessary misstep and the Boilermakers will be home for Christmas...again. What will Happen: Western Illinois isn't Northern Illinois. This is an FCS opponent that might be okay in their own league, but shouldn't be able to stand against a Big Ten team that's hoping to make a little noise this year. Robert Marve should find the sailing much more comfortable this week than he did last. Look for him to have the kind of day so many expected him to have against Notre Dame - except better. Meanwhile, look for Dan Dierking & Company to have a little more say in the movement of the offense. Marve needs to understand that he can't do it all and I think he'll be ready this week to let more people play a role in the Boilermaker victory. The defense played surprisingly good against Notre Dame last week. Expect them to look almost scary at times against Western Illinois. Prediction: Purdue 27 - Western Illinois 9 Michigan @ Notre Dame Saturday, September 11, 3:30 PM ET Why to Watch: While this isn't the most intriguing match-up of the week, it's not far off. This is a match between two similar, nationally recognized teams. It has the makings of a classic. Notre Dame employs a spread offense now, and Brian Kelly has done a fantastic job of getting his players comfortable with his system quickly. Rich Rodriguez, on the other hand, has finally got enough of his players in place to raise Michigan back to a level of respectability that many had thought would never come under RichRod's tenure. Both defenses are quick and Michigan's looked downright good in their victory over Connecticut last week. Importance of the Game: For Notre Dame, this is something of a statement game. While Michigan still isn't quite the Michigan of old, they're making big strides forward and are a legitimate threat to just about anyone in the Big Ten. At least, they look that way right now. Beating Purdue was one thing, but the Boilermakers don't get people as excited as Michigan is doing right now. A win here would let people the nation over know that the Irish are back. For Michigan, this will help determine whether last week was a fluke, or whether they're truly a good team again. UConn is a far more respected opponent than many of their Big Ten counterparts faced in the opening week, and Michigan handled them fairly easily. A win here will firmly convince skeptics that Michigan is taking another step in the right direction, and could take a lot of heat off Rich Rodriguez. Intangibles: The Charlie Weiss era in South Bend is over and the Brian Kelly era has begun. So far, it's begun on a positive note. Kelly knows what's on the table, though. One win will not convince the powers at Notre Dame that he's their guy for the future. Weiss lasted longer than he should have, but the Irish won't make that mistake again. Kelly has to prove that he's building a winning program, and he won't have the leash Weiss had to do it. There's a lot riding for him on every single game this season. A respectable finish will buy him the time he needs to make Notre Dame a real power again. Rich Rodriguez is likely at the end of his leash. Michigan has done a good job so far of giving him the time to put the pieces in place so that he can make Michigan the same kind of power that he made West Virginia a few years back. Don't underestimate just how much damage was done with that 3-9 season in 2008 though, and how little the 5-7 season last year did to repair it. Michigan is used to nothing less than New Year's bowl games and fighting for the conference (and national) title. This is a game between two coaches looking to secure their jobs and two programs needing to get back to their winning ways of the past. What will Happen: Denard Robinson was a full-on phenom last week against Connecticut. He was 19 of 22 through the air for 186 yards and a touchdown. That's all well and good, but the young man also posted 197 yards on 29 carries and another touchdown. UConn just couldn't find an answer for Robinson. Notre Dame should do a little better job of slowing Mr. Robinson down, but don't look for them to stop him. He's a true dual threat that has a lot of quality help around him. Don't let that make you think that Michigan will just roll over Notre Dame, though. The Irish defense wasn't spectacular, allowing three Purdue ball carriers to average over four yards per carry last week. However, Purdue's offense probably isn't as weak as Notre Dame's defense made them look. Michigan shouldn't expect to go into South Bend and have their way. Dayne Crist should also have a decent day against a Michigan defense that looked very good against UConn, but is still a little suspect. Crist was 19 of 26 last week, for 205 yards and a touchdown. I wouldn't expect those numbers to come so easily, but Purdue's defense was deceptively good, so similar numbers wouldn't be unsurprising. Look for a really exciting contest that's close from beginning to end. There should be fireworks from both teams on both sides of the ball as two spread offenses go head-to-head with two growing defenses. I'll give the nod on this one to Michigan, based solely on the current belief that UConn may have better prepared them for this game than Purdue did for the Irish. Prediction: Michigan 31 - Notre Dame 30 Illinois vs. Southern Illinois Saturday, September 11, 7:30 PM ET Why to Watch: Ron Zook fans were hoping for a statement win last week against Missouri. They didn't get it, and the heat is getting turned up even higher than it was before. If Illinois comes out and puts a Big Ten-style thumping on Southern Illinois, just maybe there will be reason to hope in Champaign. If they win by anything less than 14 points though, expect the public roar to become something just short of a lynch mob. Importance of the Game: This could be Zook's last hurrah...or meow... What will Happen: The eventual outcome of the game will depends largely on Nate Scheelhaase's ability to prove he can be a real quarterback. Last weeks 9 of 23 for 81 yards performance does nothing to instill confidence in Illini faithful. One touchdown with three interceptions does even less. Still, Illinois' defense was better than expected and Mikel Leshoure put up very solid numbers (20 carries for 112 yards - a 5.6 ypc average). Even if Scheelhaase still struggles to remember which side of the football is up, the ground game should be good enough to carry the offense and the Illini defense should be more than capable of holding Southern Illinois down. Prediction: Illinois 27 - Southern Illinois 3 Northwestern vs. Illinois State Saturday, September 11, 12:00 PM ET Why to Watch: The Wildcats had a scare against Vanderbilt in the first week of play. How good is Vanderbilt really, though? They were winless in the SEC, but had some better-than-you'd-think games last year. Maybe they are better than they appear on paper. Maybe... This game will tell us how good Northwestern really is. At least, it'll give us a better idea. Plus, admit it...you'd like to see Dan Persa in action again. Importance of the Game: Northwestern should be bowl eligible this year, but the Big Ten is better top-to-bottom than it was a year ago. It's entirely possible that Pat Fitzgerald's crew could be much closer to staying home for Christmas than they've been since he took over the head position. Winning a bowl game may have to take a back seat to just getting to a bowl game, and this game could be the difference. What will Happen: Persa put up solid numbers against Vandy last week and looked really sharp in doing so. He was 19 of 21 for 222 yards with three touchdowns and added another 82 yards on the ground. There wasn't much going on the ground - outside of Persa, that is - but it didn't hamper the Wildcats too badly. Look for another outstanding performance by the junior quarterback. Look also for Northwestern's defense to make a much better statement this game than they did last. This is Illinois State we're talking about. Again, they're not Northern Illinois. They shouldn't provide too much of a challenge for Northwestern. Prediction: Northwestern 27 - Illinois State 7 Minnesota vs South Dakota Saturday, September 11, 12:00 PM ET Why to Watch: The Golden Gophers had a nice opening win over Middle Tennessee State last week. MTSU is a respectable team that could give any number of BCS programs fits. Now we'll get to see how Minnesota handles the cake-walks. Importance of the Game: On tap for the Gophers is USC. While the Trojans have a suspect defense, there's nothing wrong with thier offense and should give Minnesota all they can handle. USC is also just the beginning of a brutal schedule that sees Minnesota taking on Northern Illinois, traveling to Wisconsin, posting back-to-back dates against Penn State and Ohio State, and ending the season against Iowa. In other words, if the Golden Gophers want to go bowling, they'll need a big win over a weak S.D. team. What will Happen: Adam Weber looked mediocre against MTSU, but that might just have as much to do with the Blue Raider defense as it does Weber's ineffeciency. I doubt it, but it might. Still, the ground game was something to get excited about as Duane Bennett posted 187 yards on 30 carries. Jon Hoese punched the ball into the end zone three times as well. It's not known right now if Hoese will be available for this game after his father passed away Monday, but the rush attack is in good hands. Look for Weber to settle down and put up more respectable numbers. Bennett may not quite put up the same numbers he did last week, but he should be more than fine this week too. The defense, which was "okay" last week, should have a stellar day and gain a little extra confidence. South Dakota will get a nice pay day, but won't put up any real competition. Prediction: Minnesota 41 - South Dakota 7 #9 Iowa vs Iowa State Saturday, September 11, 3:30 PM ET Why to Watch: Does anyone (besides me) remember Iowa's 2002 season? Let me refresh your memory. Iowa went 11-1 and tied for the Big Ten title. That one loss came to Iowa State, who went 7-7 on the year. This is an in-state rivalry that gets moderate national attention. Since Iowa State rarely challenges for any Big XII accolades, it doesn't quite get the attention it deserves. It's always a hard-hitting, hard-fought affair and fans in the state of Iowa know that it's tough to predict how this thing will turn out. Also, Paul Rhodes is doing some pretty good things in Ames, so Iowa's lofty national ranking doesn't mean a lot. Remember, this is the same team that beat Nebraska in Lincoln last year before winning a bowl game over Minnesota. Importance of the Game: For fans in the state of Iowa, there are few games that hold more importance than this one. For State, this game often sets the tone for their entire season. A win over 9th ranked Iowa could establish them as a true threat in the Big XII North. For Iowa, the stakes couldn't be higher. That #9 ranking places them in the national title hunt and some pundits have gone so far as to give them a very realistic shot at getting to Glendale. The big talk has surrounded the showdown with Ohio State in late November, but all of the talk about titles will be for naught if the Hawkeyes can't beat their "little brother" from Ames. Also at stake is the Hy-Vee (regional grocery chain) Cy-Hawk Trophy presented to the winner each year. Intangibles: Besides the raw emotion always present at this game, along with Iowa's national respect, there's a little additional "extra curricular activity" going into this game. Iowa senior Preseason All-American DE Adrian Clayborn made the statement that the Hawkeyes were "the only team in Iowa", which didn't set well with Cyclones and their fans. The 'Clones would love nothing more than to put the Iowa defender firmly in his place and ruin the Hawkeyes hopes of hoisting a crystal football at the end of the season. Off the field, these two teams generally have a "friendly rivalry". The University of Iowa offered help to Iowa State University when flood waters encroached on their campus and threatened Jack Trice Stadium. It's safe to say that ISU would have done the same if the roles were reversed (and may have a year ago when the roles really were reversed). On the field though, there's no love lost between these two programs. They hate each other with a seething, white hot passion. Clayborn's comment only fanned the flames a bit higher and added a little extra incentive for both programs to play at their peak level. What will Happen: Last year, Tyler Sash intercepted three Austin Arnaud passes and Iowa took away five total from the Cyclones. Arnaud did little to dispell the hope that things will be different this year when he tossed two interceptions against Northern Illinois. The Cyclones still came away with a nice 27-10 victory over a respected MAC team. True, NIU isn't the same Husky team that they were a couple of years ago, but they still command a level of respect, and Iowa State had few problems with them. Alexander Robinson put up 97 yards on 19 carries and scored twice. Their defense held NIU to fewer than 100 yards passing and stood fairly well against the run as well. Don't look for those numbers to be as nice this week though. Iowa's QB Ricky Stanzi has a stadium full of receivers he can throw to and has worked hard to eliminate his mistakes of the past. Iowa's Robinson had a nice 109 yard day of his own last week and gets sophomore Jewel Hampton back to help out. Also, Iowa's defense is head-and-shoulders better than Northern Illinois'. Look for Tyler Sash to record his first interception(s) of the year and for Iowa's vaunted defensive line to log their first sack(s) of the year as well. This will be one of the more emotionally charged games of the week, but Iowa's talent will out over the course of this one. They're just too loaded on both sides of the ball for Iowa State to hang with them for four quarters. Prediction: Iowa 24 - Iowa State 20 #14 Penn State @ #1 Alabama Saturday, September 11, 7:00 PM ET Why to Watch: Oh, shall I count the reasons! This is a match between the Big Ten and the SEC (who battle almost yearly for college football supremecy). This is the #1 team in the nation getting their first test of the season. This is Penn State with the opportunity to reinsert themselves as a national contender. This is college footbal at it's best. This was also nearly my game of the week. Any other week, it probably would have been. Importance of the Game: Alabama came into the season ranked #1 on the heels of a national championship in 2009. And well they should. There are questions though, as to whether or not they have the defense to repeat. The Crimson Tide are replacing almost their entire defense (returning only one starter), and haven't faced anyone yet who can really push that defense. A win here for the Nittany Lions would erase any hope for a Roll Tide repeat. On the other hand, it would launch Penn State into the national spotlight. Coming into the year, they're projected by most prognosticators to be the fourth best team in the Big Ten. That could change over night if they knock off the defending national champs, and could launch them high enough to enter the title race themselves. A win for 'Bama might not raise any eyebrows, but it would confirm for the Tide coaching staff that things are just fine in Tuscaloosa. A big win would confirm for virtually everyone that the Tide is still a national title-caliber team. Player(s) to Watch: Keep an eye on Penn State's receivers versus Alabama's corners. Brett Bracket is listed as 6'6" and Derek Moye is 6'5". Dre Kirkpatrick is listed as 6'3", but DeQuan Menzie is only listed at a flat six feet. Will the height differential play a difference? I doubt it with Kirkpatrick, but Menzie may have troubles getting thrown over. It's also worth watching the receiver match-ups because RB Evan Royster didn't have a great game against a weak Youngstown State. On 11 carries, Royster only managed 40 yards and never sniffed the end zone. With that kind of production (or lack thereof), the pass attack will become even more important. It will also be interesting to see how true freshman Robert Bolden handles the 'Bama defense. He had a slow start against Youngstown State, but once he got rolling, he completed 20 of 29 passes for 239 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. This will be his first test against a true football power. What will Happen: If you're looking for a 'Bama burnout of the Nittany Lions, I don't think you'll get it. Yes, they looked a little suspect in the opening quarter against Youngstown State, but once they woke up, they were plenty effective. The Nittany Lions have been looking forward to this game since 'Bama won the championship. It might even be part of the reason they started so slowly against the Penguins - they may have been looking ahead. Potentially complicating things for Alabama, they not only have to test their defense against a potent Penn State offense, but they're still missing Mark Ingram. The Heisman Trophy winner isn't likely to start this game, and probably won't see a single snap. That's not to say that Alabama is in deep trouble or anything, though. They've got plenty of weapons to choose from and Penn State hasn't faced this level of competition since taking on Ohio State mid-last year. That didn't turn out well for the Nittany Lions, so don't go predicting 'Bama doom just yet. Expect Robert Bolden to have a rough start while his offensive line tries to figure things out against Alabama's defensive front. For the same reason, it wouldn't be wise to expect Royster to come out burning up turf either. On the other side of things, Alabama isn't really known for their offense. It's good, don't get me wrong, but they won that championship thanks to excellent defense. The Crimson Tide will keep the pace relatively slow, keeping the ball on the ground and playing the smart football they're known for. The first half will largely be a defensive battle. The second half, I expect things to start coming alive a little more. Penn State's defense will start to show some fatigue, opening the door for a well-balanced Tide attack. On the other hand, I would also expect Joe Pa and crew to make some important adjustments and get their offense working a little better as well. Look for short-to-mid range passes from Bolden to find thier tall receivers. Also, look for senior TE Ander Szczerba to play a large role in the pass attack, giving Alabama a lot to think about. In the end, this will be a much closer game than many pundits have predicted. Look for Penn State to be well within striking distance of the upset as the fourth quarter draws to a close. I wouldn't even be that surprised if Joe Pa finds a way to pull it out. I don't think they will though. Despite Alabama's huge turnover on defense, these guys aren't completely green. Many of them have real game experience that will serve them well. They'll still be the staunch defense we're used to seeing (if just a shade less predictable), and will cause the Nittany Lion offense to stumble at least once too many. Prediction: Alabama 23 - Penn State 20 Indiana - bye week With Miami/Ohio State, Iowa State/Iowa, Michigan/Notre Dame, and Penn State/Alabama, this is set to be one of the most exciting weeks in Big Ten football for the entire year. We've got heated rivalries, traditional rivalries, and games with national title implications. It doesn't get a whole lot better than this, folks. Enjoy the weekend and... Until next time, HAPPY BOWL HUNTING!
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