2010 Big Ten Preview: Week 7 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Stix Symmonds   
Friday, 15 October 2010 15:48

The 2010 season is half over already.  There have been a few surprises along this short road.

Last weekend, the nation saw No. 1 Alabama fall to No. 20 South Carolina.  We watched undefeated Michigan fall to undefeated Michigan State and undefeated Northwestern drop to Purdue.

With more big games on the schedule, what will happen this week?  Could the new no. 1 fall?  Will other unbeaten teams fall by the wayside?

#1 Ohio State @ #16 Wisconsin (Game of the Week)

Saturday, October 16, 7:00 PM ET

Why to Watch:  Last week, the #1 team in the land fell from its pedestal.  Ohio State has ascended to the top spot, but standing in their way is another top 20 team in Wisconsin.  The Buckeyes have to travel to Camp Randall to defend their top ranked status.

Wisconsin needs a signature win this year.  So far, their only claim to fame (besides a lofty preseason ranking) is a narrow win over Arizona State.  They haven't exactly proven that they really deserve their status as a front-runner for the Big Ten title.

Key Player(s): Terrell Pryor has turned into a quality passer to compliment his dangerous running ability.  What's more, Jim Tressel appears more willing to allow Pryor to let loose of the ball more than in the past.  Part of that has to do with Pryor's maturity as a quarterback, but part of it is Tressel's realization that the run game isn't good enough to carry the Buckeyes against a number of the opponents on their schedule. 

Again this week, Pryor's ability to throw against Wisconsin's secondary may be the difference between a Buckeye victory and an upset.

Keep an eye on Wisconsin's James White.  Everyone knows how strong John Clay is, and everyone respects his ability.  However, over the last couple of weeks, White has emerged as a true threat from the Badger backfield.  His quicker, flashier style compliments Clay's straight forward bowl-you-over attack.  Michigan State had a tough time defending White, as did Minnesota.

White could be the guy that opens up the Badger offense against a very tough Buckeye defense that will key heavily on John Clay.

Intangible:  The Buckeyes have suffered tremendous injuries this year.  It hasn't been a factor up to now.  Even Pryor has struggled somewhat, to stay healthy.  Now however, the Buckeyes are facing one of their toughest opponents - at least the toughest since going head-to-head with the Miami Hurricane. 

Why Wisconsin might win:  The Badgers have a strong offense behind Scott Tolzien, John Clay, and James White.  They also have a fairly good defense. That's not a combination the Buckeyes have really faced yet this year.

Illinois presented the Buckeyes with a better-than-expected defense, but a rough offense.  Indiana and Miami presented explosive offenses, but weak (or nonexistent) defenses.  The Buckeyes have yet to deal with a team that can play both sides of the ball well.

Wisconsin has a deadly combination between Tolzien, Clay, and White.  If Tolzien plays up to potential, and the others are used with relative balance, Ohio State will have a lot to account for on the defensive side of the ball.

The biggest advantage the Badgers have on their side is home field advantage.  If you have to face the Buckeyes, it's better to face them in front of your home crowd than to play in the daunting Horse Shoe of Columbus, Ohio.

Why Ohio State might win:  Sheer talent trumps the day more often than not.  Whatever problems Ohio State may have encountered, they're nothing the Buckeyes can't handle.  They have consistently had some of the best recruiting classes in the nation - let alone the conference.  What's more, Tressel and his staff have done their part as coaches to train that talent up to a high level of play.

From Pryor to Saine to Sanzenbacher, Ohio State is loaded with talent on offense.  Certainly, it's more than enough to push Wisconsin's defense around and make them play nearly flawlessly.  The Buckeyes are equally talented on the defensive side, which should force the Badgers to pull out every weapon in their arsenal to put points on the board.

Ohio State is just too deep and too strong across the board for Bret Bielema's crew.

What will Happen:  Look for Wisconsin to pull out all of the stops early.  In an emotionally charged battle for Big Ten supremecy, the Badgers will take the Buckeyes into halftime with a close battle on their hands.  Clay and White will dazzle the audience with their ground performance, even if it won't produce a ton of points.  Tolzien will be accurate and effective enough to balance that offense fairly well.

The second half will be a different story, though.

Bielema isn't as adept at making solid adjustments as Tressel is. His team will attempt to play the second half the same way they do the first and it'll backfire.  Pryor will continue to pass the ball well against the Badger secondary.  Wisconsin's offense however, will grind to a halt as the Buckeyes clamp down on them.

By midway through the fourth quarter, Wisconsin will be in full-on panic mode as they trail by ten or more, and see time slipping away.  That panic will cause even more mistakes, and Ohio State will simply run out the clock on a victory.

Look for Ohio State to win by 10 to 14 points.

Prediction: Ohio State

Indiana vs Arkansas State

Saturday, October 16, 12:00 PM ET

What will Happen:  Indiana's offense is explosive, thanks mostly to Ben Chappell's passing.  Arkansas State won't provide the same level of defense Ohio State did last week, nor will they have the explosive offense Michigan brought to the table two weeks ago.

In a higher-than-necessary scoring game, look for Indiana to out-gun Arkansas State.

Prediction: Indiana

Illinois @ #11 Michigan State

Saturday, October 16, 12:00 PM ET

What will Happen:  This could actually be a very intriguing match.  The Illini played exceptionally well against Ohio State a couple weeks ago.  They turned around last week to beat Penn State soundly.  Suddenly, a team that had been picked by many (including me) to be at the very bottom of the Big Ten, is hanging tough with the conference elite. 

Michigan State meanwhile, is not-so-quietly putting together an undefeated season.  That season includes victories over Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Michigan.  The last two came on back-to-back weeks.

Are the Spartans due for a letdown?  If they see the toughest part of their schedule behind them until they face the Hawkeyes three weeks from now, they very well could be.

I would expect this to be a very exciting game.  Illinois' defense could seriously challenge Kirk Cousins and the Spartan rushing attack led by Le'Veon Bell and Edwin Baker. 

However, thier offense really isn't strong enough to handle Greg Jones and his cohorts.  As fun as this game could be - and it could be one of the best on TV this weekend - Illinois just doesn't have the strength all around to take down the mighty Spartans.

Prediction: Michigan State

Minnesota @ Purdue

Saturday, October 16, 12:00 PM ET

What will Happen:  The Golden Gophers have not had a good year by anyone's standards.  At 1-, they'd have to win all but one more just to become bowl eligible.  They're on a five game losing streak that includes names like South Dakota and Northern Illinois.

Purdue meanwhile, is 3-2 and has a nice victory over previously undefeated Northwestern to their credit.

Does this alone mean that Purdue is better than Minnesota?  Not necessarily, no.  Purdue has largely played a softer schedule than the Gophers have, and it could easily be argued that Minnesota might have a winning record against the same level of competition.

Look for this to be a ground battle - something you wouldn't normally see in a match between these two programs.  Purdue's ground attack is far superior to their air attack this year, which is strange, to say the least.  Adam Weber hasn't been the All Big Ten caliber QB for Minnesota that many thought he would be, either.  For both of these programs, it's been up to guys like Duane Bennett and Dan Dierking to get things done offensively. 

That's where Purdue actually has the edge (right now, at least).  The Boilermaker run defense is ranked 6th in the conference while the Gopher run D is dead last.  For my money, if this is going to be a ground battle, Purdue holds the edge.

Go ahead and let the competition argument begin.  Until we see it in action, there's no good comparison besides the stats to let us know differently.

Look for this to be a close battle, and possibly an ugly one.

Prediction: Purdue

Michigan @ #14 Iowa

Saturday, October 16, 3:30 PM ET

What will Happen: This could be another compelling match for the week.  Denard Robinson has been the most electrifying talent to lace up his...oh wait.  He's been the most electrifying talent to put on pads in the Big Ten this season.  Yeah, that works.

Robinson is the #2 runner in the nation behind LaMichael James, amassing an average 165.17 yards per game - as a quarterback!  He's also averaging 203.8 yards per game through the air.  His ability to break out of the backfield and explode for big gains is almost legendary, and he's only a sophomore.

However, Robinson was held somewhat in check by a tough Michigan State defense last week.  He's facing an even tougher defense in the Iowa Hawkeyes this week. 

Robinson also threw three interceptions against the Spartans last week (which could have been the difference in the game).  It's reasonable to expect that he'll do much better about protecting the football against the Haswkeyes.  Don't expect a lot of errant throws this week.

Iowa represents possibly the most balanced team the Wolverines have faced to date, though.  Not only do they have a talented and veteran QB in Ricky Stanzi; they also have a talented running back in Adam Robinson.  On top of that, Iowa boasts a couple of good receivers and some terrific tight ends. 

Iowa's scoring defense is #1 in the nation.  They haven't allowed a rushing touchdown all year and only give up 10.2 poitns per game.  There are none tougher anywhere in the nation than this Hawkeye group.

Look for Iowa to give up a few big plays, but largely limit Robinson over the course of four quarters.  Look also for Iowa's offense to find sustained success against a porous Wolverine defense.

Robinson will still be Robinson, but he won't be that guy all day long.  It'll only come in flashes.  Meanwhile, Iowa's defense will be relentless and their offense will be steady and true.

Prediction: Iowa

The Big Ten At-A-Glance

Ohio State and Michigan State lead the way with overall records of 6-0, and 2-0 in conference play.

Iowa is right behind them with a 4-1 overall record, 1-0 in the Big Ten.

Purdue is currently 4th in the conference with a 3-2 overall record, 1-0 in the Big Ten.

Wisconsin, Michigan, and Northwestern are all tied for 5th with 5-1 records, 1-1 in conference play.

Illinois comes next at 3-2 overall, with a 1-1 Big Ten record.

Indiana is currently 9th with a 3-2 overall record; 0-2 in the Big Ten.

Penn State is 10th with a 3-3 overall record; 0-2 in the Big Ten.

Minnesota brings up the rear with a 1-5 overall record; 0-2 in the conference.

Final Thought:  Unless Ohio State drops to Wisconsin this season, we likely won't see the true frontrunner for the conference title for a few more weeks.  Michigan State takes on Northwestern next week and Iowa in week 9.  Every other game on their schedule is very winnable. 

Ohio State meanwhile, doesn't face anyone until Iowa in week 12 that should (on paper) be a serious threat. 

If Michigan State gets past Iowa in a few weeks, and Ohio State beats the Hawkeyes in week 12, it's possible that we could see two undefeated teams from the Big Ten this year.  On the other hand...the Hawkeyes could play spoiler to both of them, and we could have at least three one-loss teams in the Big Ten this year.

Quite a way to end the last season before a conference championship eh?!

That's it from here.  Until next time...HAPPY BOWL HUNTING!

 
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