2009 College Football Bowls: Fiesta Bowl Preview PDF Print E-mail
Written by Erik Lord   
Sunday, 03 January 2010 12:22

Why you should watch: 

The two best non-AQ FBS teams collide in a showdown in the desert. Between the two teams, they have a perfect record of 25 wins and zero losses this season – the best combined record in any bowl game outside the BCS National Championship (26-0). While each team would have loved a chance to take down an undefeated foe from one of the “major” conferences, they're both salivating at the chance to face each other. TCU and Boise State met last season in the Poinsettia Bowl, and it was one for the ages, ending in a 17-16 victory for the Horned Frogs. It's safe to say both teams are stronger this season, so it will come down to which team has improved the most in the past year. Break out your chips and salsa, and sit down for one hell of a show.

When Boise State has the ball: 

The Boise State offense has been unconscious this season, leading the nation in scoring with 44.2 point per game. Sophomore QB Kellen Moore is the most efficient passer in the nation, leading all quarterbacks with a rating of 166.9. He has thrown for 3325 yards, 39 touchdowns, and just 3 interceptions. His favorite targets have been receivers Titus Young (969 yards, 10 TD) and Austin Pettis (850 yards, 14 TD), who is expected to return to the field after missing the last two games due to an ankle injury. Moore is also very adept at getting the tight ends involved, especially near the red zone. While the passing game has been the strength of the Broncos offense, they are very strong on the ground as well. Junior Jeremy Avery and sophomore Doug Martin lead a running back corps that is averaging 5.3 yards per carry and nearly 200 yards per game. Martin, a hard-nosed player who used to line up as a safety, has been the primary weapon lately...rushing for 332 yards and 8 touchdowns in the last three games. Avery and Martin will be hard-pressed to gain ground against a TCU defense that is completely stifling against the run. The Frogs have allowed more than 100 rushing yards just four times this season, and have allowed only 7 rushing touchdowns all season. The defense is full of fast and talented athletes, but the standout player is senior DE Jerry Hughes, who finished 2009 with 54 tackles, 11.5 sacks, and 7 quarterback hurries. The Broncos will have to continue their terrific offensive line play in order to contain Hughes and the terrific TCU pass rushers. If Moore can get enough time in the pocket, he should be able to complete the short passes necessary to move the Broncos methodically down the field. But the TCU secondary is very talented, and will look to force Moore into mistakes.

Boise State

(13-0)

vs.

TCU

(12-0)

Rank

Per Game

 

Per Game

Rank

20th

194.5

Rushing Offense

256.5

5th

30th

266.0

Passing Offense

212.6

66th

1st

44.2

Scoring Offense

40.7

4th

39th

126.9

Rushing Defense

80.5

3rd

13th

172.8

Passing Defense

152.8

4th

15th

17.7

Scoring Defense

12.4

6th

1st

0.4

Sacks Allowed

0.8

4th

72nd

1.8

Sacks

2.7

21st

71st

38.5 %

3rd Down Conversions

43.2 %

31st

14th

32.2 %

Opponent 3rd Down Conversions

26.1 %

1st

2nd

+ 1.46

Turnover Margin

+ 0.33

41st

33rd

85.5 %

Red Zone Scoring

84.8 %

38th

When TCU has the ball: 

Everyone talks about TCU as a defensive team, and rightfully so – their defense is the strength of the team. But the Frogs have played extremely well on offense, as evidenced by their numbers. Their balanced attack, led by junior QB Andy Dalton, has lit up scoreboards for 40.7 points per game. Dalton, at 6-3 and 215, is a weapon with his legs (522 yards, 3 TD) as well as his arm (2484 yards, 22 TD, 5 INT). His favorite targets are sophomore WR Antoine Hicks, and junior receivers Jimmy Young and Jeremy Kerley. Kerley is a complete weapon, contributing as a receiver (467 yards, 2 TD), running back (14 carries, 3 TD), kick returner (17 returns, 457 yards), and punt returner (34 returns, 487 yards, 2 TD). And senior RB Joseph Turner is a consistent force on the ground. The Boise State defense has been very impressive this season, starting with their complete domination of Oregon in the opening week. Their pass defense has been the strength of the unit, allowing opponents fewer than 173 yards per game. Led by talented CB Kyle Wilson and hard-hitting safety Jeron Johnson, the secondary has yielded just 14 touchdowns all season, while intercepting 21 passes (returning 3 for touchdowns). The Broncos have shown vulnerability on the ground, however, surrendering more than 200 rushing yards in three games this season, including 320 by Fresno State back in September. The key to slowing down the Frogs rushing attack will start at the point of attack, where sophomore DT Billy Winn is one of the nation's finest (43 tackles, 12.5 tackles-for-loss, 6 sacks).

Special Teams: 

Special teams may be the most exciting aspect of this game. Boise State features outstanding returners in Austin Pettis (28 kickoff returns, 779 yards, 2 TD) and Kyle Wilson (21 punt returns, 224 yards), while TCU's Jeremy Kerley is an outstanding specialist in both punt and kickoff returns. The coverage teams are equally skilled, so it will be interesting to see which team gains the field position advantage.

Intangibles: 

Turnovers are a factor in any football game, but they may be the DECIDING factor in this game. Both squads are opportunistic on defense, so it will be important for the offenses to limit the mistakes.

What will happen: 

Despite balanced offenses on both sidelines, the game will likely feature more passing than running – as both defenses are tough against the run. The running game of the Frogs will have adequate success against a Broncos defense that has been burned on the ground this season. With their ability to run the football, TCU will control the clock and keep their attacking defense fresh for each series.

My pick:  TCU

 
Discuss (1 posts)
2009 College Football Bowls: Fiesta Bowl Preview
Jan 05 2010 05:18:53
Immediate post game: TCU beat TCU. Turnovers killed them. Some of that was solid defense by Boise State, but some of it was poor execution by TCU. It was an entertaining game and I really thought the Frogs would pull it out in the end, but they just couldn't seem to quit tripping over themselves.

You called the Intangibles.

Now, as for your tweet about Boise State getting a shot at the national title, I agree that they deserve it, but won't get it. It's going to come down (once again) to strength of OOC schedule. It's not necessarily BSU's fault, but it is what it is. They'll have to beat someone like Texas or 'Bama convincingly before they get a real nod for the big crystal ball. The problem is, those programs will never willingly schedule BSU. It's a no-win situation.
#41

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