Why you should watch

Can anyone say drama? Michigan State apparently left half their players at home, suspended for their part in a fight on campus.  Texas Tech is now sans Head Coach Mike Leach after he was canned for mistreating injured receiver Adam James.  About the only thing not being talked about in regards to this bowl game is football.

This game is a train wreck.  It might be pretty ugly and there are definitely casualties, but we can’t keep from craning our necks to see the carnage.

When Texas Tech has the ball

Well now, here’s question of the day #1:  will Texas Tech look like Texas Tech with defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill running the show?  No doubt, McNeill won’t try to upset the apple cart any more than it already is, but will he have the same strategic mind that Leach has?  More importantly, will he be able to focus his team away from the off-field distractions and on Kirk Cousins & Company?

The Red Raiders bring a pass happy attack led by junior QB Taylor Potts.  Potts has been accurate, completing 65.6% of his passes for a very impressive 3068 yards and 20 touchdowns (with 12 interceptions).  He has four good targets in Alexander Torres, Deltron Lewis, Tramain Swindall, and Lyle Leong – all of whom have five or more TD catches – but the roster is full of available ball catchers and he’ll have no shortage of hands to toss to.

When the Red Raiders do run the ball, Baron Batch is no slouch, averaging 5.37 yards-per-carry and boasting 12 touchdowns on the ground.

Just assume that the “Leach Affair” will be the farthest thing from the players minds when they take the field.  Potts should have an enormous day against a Spartan defense that ranks 103^rd in the nation against the pass (last in the Big Ten) – when everyone’s available.

Speaking of the Spartan defense, Potts will have to keep his eyes on LB Greg Jones.  Jones has nine sacks on the season, 13.5 tackles for loss, and 141 tackles.  He’s a one-man-wrecking-crew.  Also, the warriors of Sparta have five different defenders with an interception (though they all only have one each) that can disrupt this pass attack if they’re on their games.

When Michigan State has the ball

Here’s question of the day #2.  How will Michigan State recover from the loss of B.J. Cunningham and Mark Dell?  Cunningham has started nine games and Dell just three, but both have been major contributors to the Spartan pass attack (2^nd and 3^rd on the team respectively).  Sophomore Keshawn Martin and junior TE Charlie Gantt will need to step up their game to fill the holes.

Larry Caper has had to step in this year and try to fill Javon Ringer’s shoes.  He hasn’t been anywhere close, but he has managed a little over four yards-per-carry.  It’s been enough to keep defenses honest and buy QB Kirk Cousins a little breathing room.

Look for a fairly straight forward attack from Michigan State.  They still have leading receiver Blair White, and he’ll be used more than usual, but without Cunningham and Dell, it’ll be even more important for Caper to generate some kind of ground game while Cousins works out a rhythm.  The Spartans will likely utilize the run as much as the Red Raiders will allow.  If that works even a little, expect Cousins to start working over Gantt.  He and Martin can help draw attention away from White, who will make the really big plays.

On the other side of the ball, Cousins will have to watch out for Brandon Sharpe, who has 15 sacks, 16 tackles for loss, and three forced fumbles to his credit.  He’s the kind of disrupter that can make life miserable.

Intangibles

Do I really need to get into all of the intangibles?  Yes?  (Sigh) Okay.

I’m not going to lie.  I have not been looking forward to previewing this game.  Watching it, yes…previewing it, no.  What do you really expect to happen in a game where both teams are mired in controversy, one has lost its head coach just days before kickoff and the other is missing almost an entire starting unit thanks to testosterone-driven stupidity?

Either of these teams have ample reason for their heads to be anywhere but on football right now.  The players and coaches who are allowed to be on the sidelines have had to endure questions about seemingly everything except their contribution to an upcoming bowl game that should be the highlight of their season.

The winner of this game could very well be the team that is best able to put aside the distractions and remember to play football.

What will happen

Let’s be honest, this isn’t exactly Alabama against Texas now is it?  On one side of the equation we have one of the most explosive offenses in the country.  On the other, we have a so-so offense.  Neither defense is overly impressive.

The Red Raiders will come out throwing the ball and finding success right away.  Michigan State will try to counter with a more balanced attack, but some of the key pieces are missing and it will show fairly early.  Larry Caper will have one of his better days and Kirk Cousins will find Blair White more than a few times.  Look for Gantt to have one of his biggest days as well.

Both teams will have some big pass plays and there may be a good run or two sprinkled in now and again.  Defense will be something of an after-thought.  For Michigan State, it won’t exist and for Texas Tech, it won’t matter.

The Red Raiders are head-and-shoulders better than the Spartans.  This could be a pretty exciting show, but not necessarily one of the better games in terms of competitiveness.  The Red Raiders will run away with this one – with or without Mike Leach.

My Pick: Texas Tech