| 2009 College Football Bowls: International Bowl Preview |
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| Written by Mark Noe | |||
| Saturday, 02 January 2010 00:00 | |||
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Why you should watch:Well, if you watch that would make two of us. Take a break from the BCS games and watch two middle of the pack teams from their respective conferences square off in what could be the least cared about football game of the season. As my man, Felder, put it, "this may be South Florida's best chance at winning a game above the Mason-Dixon line because it's being played in a dome." True, but if Northern Illinois can start up the ground game, this could get out of hand quickly regardless of the climate controlled dome interior. When Northern Illinois has the ball:For the Huskies, it will be all about the running game. The offense isn't the juggernaut of the past in rushing yards, but Northern Illinois has two very talented backs. Chad Spann leads the team with 938 yards and 19 TDs. Me'co Brown plays the role of "back up" nicely and has 645 yards and 4 TDs when Spann is on the sidelines taking a break. Calling the plays for the Huskies will be QB Chandler Harnish who completes more than 66% of his passes for 1540 yards, 11 TDs, and only 5 INTs. With a TD2INT ratio just shy of 2.0, Harnish has a proven ability to keep the ball out of the hands of opposing secondaries. While he has plenty of yardage through the air, there isn't a single receiver Harnish favors more than others. The team leader in receiving yards is WR Landon Cox with 528 yards and 4 TDs. Where the Huskies quarterback can hurt defenses is with his unexpected ability to scramble. While I wouldn't call him a running quarterback, Harnish does have just enough speed to keep plays alive and gain a few yards on broken plays (250 yards, 2 TDs). If South Florida expects to slow down the Northern Illinois running game, it will begin in the trenches with DE George Selvie and DE Jason Pierre-Paul. Both are talented players and have a proven ability to single handedly impact offenses. While Selvie has been all the rage over the past two years, he has taken a backseat in the stats to Pierre-Paul who is the team leader in sacks (4.5), tackles for a loss (13.5), and ranks 5th in tackles (40). The Huskies could probably handle blocking one outstanding defensive end, but two might be a different story. When South Florida has the ball:Oh South Florida, what should we do with you? The Bulls still seem to be floundering after losing star quarterback Matt Grothe even after their freshman backup B.J. Daniels led them to a win against Florida State. At that moment everyone jumped on the B.J. Daniels band wagon, but we later learned that the Seminoles weren't really all that good and neither was the freshman quarterback now calling the plays. Daniels completes only 52.7% of his passes, but the South Florida spread offense gives him enough opportunities to have nearly 1800 yards through the air on the season. What makes the Bulls' young quarterback so dangerous is his ability to run the ball. This isn't the same "he can scramble" assessment I made about the Northern Illinois quarterback, but rather a legitimate "this dude can run" statement. Daniels has 798 yards and 9 TDs on the ground which puts him well above the rest of the Bulls in rushing yardage. When B.J Daniels drops back to throw down field, he has four wide receivers to target with over 250 yards on the season. Containing the Bulls quarterback will be the top priority for the Huskies defense. While the Northern Illinois defense has a proven ability to get to the quarterback (19.5 combined sacks), the highest ranked defensive linemen in total tackles is ranked 8th. I know it seems like an "in the weeds" stat assessment, but it shows that the Huskies' D-line allows opposing offenses to reach the second level. If this happens in Toronto, Northern Illinois will be going home with a loss. Intangibles:As mentioned earlier, South Florida just doesn't seem to have the ability to win anywhere that might have temperatures below 50 degrees. I know the game is going to be played indoors, so we'll have to wait and see if this is a weather issue or if it is more magnetic. What will happen:The teams seem pretty well matched in this game, and the winner will be decided at the quarterback position. The South Florida quarterback position to be a little more precise. The Huskies have a +8 turnover margin on the season which will make the difference in the game as B.J. Daniels turns the ball over once through the air and twice on the ground. My pick: Northern Illinois
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