Pac-10 Championship Game

Oregon State (8-3) at Oregon (9-2)
Saturday, December 3rd (9:00 PM EST)

They call it the Civil War, and it's a gridiron battle the entire state of Oregon looks forward to every year. This year, the audience will be nation-wide, as the winner of this heated rivalry will win the Pac-10 and an automatic bid to the Rose Bowl. It's the Ducks and the Beavers, and one game to decide the champion. Oh, and it's a Thursday night matchup on ESPN – this is what Championship Week should be.

When Oregon State has the ball: No one is surprised by the success of the Rodgers brothers this season. Jacquizz and James made a name for themselves last season, and have continued to be one of the most dominant offensive tandems in the nation...and certainly the finest duo from the same household. Jacquizz is 9th in the nation in rushing (119.4 ypg) and 3rd in rushing touchdowns (19). His brother James leads the Pac-10 in both receptions (77) and yards (865), and is also a threat to take a handoff to the house (260 rushing yards). The surprise this season has been the play of QB Sean Canfield. The senior began the season behind Lyle Moevao, but took over the reins of the offense in their very first game. Canfield has since emerged as one of the finest quarterbacks in the Pac-10, leading the conference in yards (254.3 ypg), touchdowns (19), and quarterback rating (147.5). Despite Canfield's success, there are concerns about the pass protection of the Beavers' offensive line. The Beavers have allowed 27 sacks this season, second worst in the conference (WSU has allowed a staggering 53). The big uglies will have their hands full against the Ducks defensive front, that has racked up 30 sacks this season. The ferocious Ducks are led by junior LB Kenny Rowe, who leads the team in tackles for loss (9.5) and sacks (7). The key for the Beavers will be to continue their success on 3rd down, where they lead the Pac-10 (48.4 %) and were unstoppable in November (60.5 %).

When Oregon has the ball: First-year head coach Chip Kelly was promoted from offensive coordinator, so it's no surprise that the Oregon offense has been the strength of the team. The Ducks lead the conference in scoring, averaging 37.7 points per game. Their high-octane rushing offense (231.4 ypg) has been phenomenal at home (270.5 ypg), and completely destroyed a formidable USC defense with 391 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns just a month ago. An ugly situation with LaGarrett Blount at the beginning of the season turned into an opportunity for freshman RB LaMichael James, who is certainly the leading candidate for Pac-10 Freshman of the Year with his 1310 yards, 11 touchdowns, and an absurd average of 6.89 yards per carry. Junior QB Jeremiah Masoli is equally dangerous as a passer (14 TD, 4 INT) and runner (619 yards, 12 TD), and has just gotten better as the season has progressed. He accounted for six touchdowns (3 passing, 3 rushing) in the Ducks 44-41 victory over Arizona last week. The run game will need to hit on all cylinders in order to gain ground on Oregon State, who leads the conference in rush defense (98.5 ypg). But after seeing what the Ducks did to USC, I'm not convinced anyone can slow down this Oregon offense.

Intangibles: On any given Saturday, Autzen Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the entire country. On Thursday night, with the Rose Bowl on the line, it will be absolutely insanity. The crowd will certainly play a role in this game.

What will happen: After a disappointing loss to open the season, the Oregon Ducks have been one of the most complete teams in the country, winning 9 of their last 10. Oregon State is a formidable opponent, and certainly has the skills to win this game. But the home field advantage, and the running game of the Ducks will just be too much for the Beavers to overcome.

My pick: Oregon

Upset Alert

Arizona at USC

If I showed you a “tale of the tape” on these two teams, you may not be able to distinguish one from the other. Both are extremely talented on both sides of the football, and both have shown weaknesses as well. My pick to win this game is USC, simply because they're at home and have the better defense (by a nose). But don't be surprised if the Trojans lose yet ANOTHER conference game. Mike Stoops is creating quite a solid program in Arizona, and they're going to be a force to be reckoned with for quite some time.

About to go Nuclear

Sophomore RB Shane Vereen (California)

Vereen's success after stepping in for the injured Jahvid Best has been nothing short of amazing. He has amassed 352 yards and 4 touchdowns in his last two games, and is starting to raise suspicions that nearly anyone can run for 100 yards in this offense (seriously, give me the rock coach). This week he faces a Washington Huskies defense that has been porous against the run (155 yards per game)...uh oh....NUKE 'EM!

(It's my new catch phrase...not sure it's politically correct...but then again, I don't care)

Stats Don't (often) Lie

“Defense wins championships.” It's a common statement, and one that I tend to agree with in nearly all situations. But it's not always the case. Arizona State boasts the 12th best total defense in the nation (297.6 yards allowed per game), but with their complete lack of any offensive production the Devils have finished the season with six straight losses and a 4-8 record. Could be that Dennis Erickson doesn't have it in him to turn this program around. But I disagree. Erickson is a fine recruiter, and with a new offensive coordinator could have the Devils back in the upper echelon of the Pac-10 conference.