So here we are; the final weekend of the regular season. It’s hard to believe the season’s done already. After this weekend we’ll know who’s playing for the National Title, who’s going to what bowl games, and who got the shaft. There are two teams in the Big Ten playing well after the rest have packed it up and gone home. I’ll take a look at those games as well as a quick run down of who should be going where when the bowl season starts.

Fresno State at Illinois Saturday, December 5th, 12:30 ET (BTN)

Why would you want to watch this game?

Well, Fresno State may not be Cincinnati, but at 7-4, they’re going bowling and really want a clear idea of which bowl they’ll be gracing this month. An 8-4 record sure looks better than a 7-5 one when you’re trying to impress bowl reps.

Illinois couldn’t play the spoiler last week against Cincy, but can they do it this week against a much weaker team from Fresno? The Illini need something positive to carry into next year. A win here could do wonders for this program.

So, what’s the skinny?

Fresno State has had a fairly decent season. They’re going bowling anyway, and that’s more than Illinois can say.

The Bulldogs started the season off on a rough note. They lost three of their first four games, though all three were solid opponents. Wisconsin started the slide that went through Boise State and ended on the road at Cincinnati. Combined, those teams have a 31-3 record. Then, the Bulldogs righted the ship and won six of their last seven games, dropping the one on the road at Nevada. In total, the teams Fresno State has lost to have a combined record of 39-7.

They got a decent win over Idaho, and another against Hawaii. Those two teams are a combined 13-12, though, so it’s not like beating a couple of major conference champions or anything, but they’re both bowl eligible.

QB Ryan Colburn has completed just under 60% of his passes (59.8) for 2150 yards, 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. That’s good enough to be rated 27^th nationally in pass efficiency.

The Bulldogs don’t really rely that heavily on the pass, though. Their forte is the run and they have just the man for the job. RB Ryan Matthews is expected to return to action this week after recovering from a concussion suffered at Nevada. Matthews has carried 213 times for 1491 yards (7.0 ypc average), and 14 touchdowns. He leads the nation in yards per game, averaging 149.10.

Robbie Rouse and Lonyae Miller haven’t been too bad either. Both average over five yards per carry and each has scored four touchdowns. As a team, the Bulldogs rank 7^th nationally in rushing offense.

The defense is another story. The Bulldogs average 201.64 yards allowed per game on the ground. That’s good enough for 6^th in the WAC. They also give up 197.6 yards per game through the air – also 6^th in the WAC. In total, the Bulldogs rank 90^th in the nation in total defense.

Sound pretty bad? Wait until you see Illinois’ stats.

Much like Fresno State, Illinois does their best work on the ground. The Illini are 3^rd in the Big Ten, averaging 188.55 yards per game rushing. Mikel LeShoure and Jason Ford have been splitting much of the run duties. LeShoure has carried 97 times for 550 yards (5.67 ypc) and three touchdowns. Fords numbers are 82 for 523 (6.38) and three, respectively. QB Juice Williams actually has the most carries of everyone, having carried the ball 129 times for 451 yards (3.5 ypc) and four touchdowns.

Williams hasn’t been so astonishing when throwing the ball. He’s led Illinois to a 10^th place finish in the Big Ten in terms of pass offense. He’s completed 123 of 211 attempts (58.3%) for 1421 yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions. That’s a paultry 142.1 yards per game throwing.

Defensively, Illinois isn’t just as bad as Fresno State; they’re worse.

The Illini are 8^th in the conference in run defense, allowing 147.27 yards per game. They’re last in the conference in pass defense, allowing 254.8 yards per game. The Illini have given up 17 touchdowns through the air while picking up only four interceptions.

How has all of this affected Illinois? How does a 3-8 record grab you for bad? Right away, Illinois lost six of their first seven games and were out of the bowl hunt almost before it began. They were blown out by Missouri, Ohio State and Penn State in their first three real tests.

They picked up a couple of interesting wins over Michigan and Minnesota, but lost to Northwestern 21-16 and at Cincinnati 36-49, to effectively end any hope of a 13^th game.

How can Fresno State win?

This will probably be the most straight-forward game on their entire schedule. LeShoure and Ford are decent backs that could give the Bulldogs some trouble, but they won’t see nearly enough action. The entire Illini offense revolves around Juice Williams – or at least it has for the last four years. Assuming Ron Zook doesn’t decide to start using the quarterback of Illinois’ future, Williams will run the ball more than anyone else. Fresno State needs to key on Williams and keep him from running all over them.

Offensively, they just need to keep doing what they’ve done all year. Having Matthews back would be a big bonus, but even if he only sees limited action, they should have a good day running the ball.

How can Illinois win?

Get the ball out of Juice Williams’ hands a lot more. This one-sided attack isn’t working. Williams is a quarterback, not a running back. I understand the trend of having quarterbacks that can run, but a good QB has to also be willing and able to pass the ball away and that’s what Williams needs to do. Get the air game working and burn down the Bulldog secondary.

The defense is going to have to come up huge against the run. Matthews is but one good ball carrier on this crew. Illinois is going to have to get very tough at the line and the linebackers are going to have to be making their reads quickly and accurately.

What will likely happen?

Illinois could really make this an interesting game. While Fresno State will score quite a few points against the Illini, their offense is capable of putting up a lot of points too. This could be a game of big runs, big plays, and lots of points. It will very likely come down to whose defense stinks the least.

Every indicator points towards Fresno State being that team. Their defense, poor as it may be, still rates better than Illinois’. Their run offense is much better than Illinois’, as is their pass offense. What’s more, when looking at the one common opponent they shared this year (Cincinnati), Fresno State fared better than Illinois did.

Prediction?

Fresno State 41 – Illinois 27

Wisconsin at Hawaii Saturday, December 5th, 11:30 pm ET (ESPN or ESPN2)

Why would you want to watch this game?

This has the potential to be a pretty good game. Both teams have at least six wins. That alone makes this game worth paying attention to. Hawaii has to win to play in the Hawaii Bowl. Lose, and their season is finished. Wisconsin would love to pad their stats a little before bowl selections are made. They’ve only got two bowls to keep in mind (depending on whether or not the Big Ten gets a BCS at-large bid), but a little extra momentum never hurts.

So, what’s the skinny?

The Warriors appear to be just coming into their own for the season. After a couple of layups against Central Arkansas and Washington State, they went on a six-game losing streak that included losses to UNLV and Louisiana Tech. Of course, there were also losses to slightly more competitive teams like Boise State and Nevada, but the Broncos pasted the Warriors 54-9, so it’s not like they were really that close.

But then Hawaii turned a corner. After losing 31-21 at Nevada, they jumped on a four-game winning streak. The records of most of those teams isn’t exactly inspiring (the combined of Utah St., New Mexico St., and San Jose St. is 9-26), but their last win did come against 8-4 Navy. With that win alone, the Warriors proved that they’re capable of beating someone with a pulse.

QB Bryant Moniz is fully healthy again. His 244.3 passing yards per game and 58.6 completion percentage will come in handy against a Wisconsin defense that’s rated 8^th in the Big Ten, allows 222 yards per game, and has given up 19 passing touchdowns. It’ll be strength on weakness as the WAC’s best pass offense goes against one of the Big Ten’s worst pass defenses.

RB Leon Wright-Jackson has a fantastic 7.42 yard-per-carry average. He splits time with Alex Green (who has 14 more carries than Wright-Jackson) who boasts a respectable 5.42 yard-per-carry average of his own. Even combined, though, the two have fewer yards (962) than a single top-notch runner (Fresno State’s Ryan Matthews has 1491 yards alone).

The Warrior defense isn’t terrible. It’s actually the third best total defense in the WAC, allowing 390.4 yards per game. That’s not fantastic, though, either. They also give up 27.7 points per game. Their -9 turnover margin isn’t helping anything either.

Wisconsin is having a “decent” year of their own. It’s no Rose Bowl year, but it could be worse. The Badgers are 8-3 with a chance to improve by three games over last season’s 7-6 mark. Last year, their best win came against Fresno State, who also finished at 7-6. This year, they’ve got a nearly identical win over 7-5 Northern Illinois.

Wisconsin’s worst stretch was a two-game skid at Ohio State and against Iowa. The problem is, those were the only two truly tough teams on Wisconsin’s schedule. Aside from Northern Illinois, the best team(s) the Badgers has beaten ended with a 6-6 record.

QB Scott Tolzien has managed a 62.4 completion percentage, but only averages 199.3 yards per game and has thrown 10 interceptions to his 16 touchdowns. He’s good, but he’s not that good. The Badgers are 7^th in the Big Ten in terms of passing offense.

RB John Clay has been the go-to guy for the Badgers’ offense. Behind a strong offensive line, Clay has run for 1224 yards on 241 attempts for a nice 5.08 yards per carry and has scored 13 touchdowns. Clay is a bruising back that is more prone to running over would-be tacklers than trying to run around them. He’s led Wisconsin to the second-best rushing offense in the conference and the 18^th best rush attack in the nation.

Defensively speaking, the Badgers have the third best run defense in the conference, allowing just 97.18 yards per game (12^th best in the nation). Against the pass, they’re only 8^th in the conference, though, and 68^th in the nation.

How can Hawaii win?

The Warriors need to come out throwing – like they’d really do anything different. Wisconsin doesn’t have a very good pass defense and throwing is Hawaii’s strength. They should take advantage of it right out of the gates and put the Badgers under the gun immediately. Even with Clay’s proficiency for running the ball, it should take the Badgers longer to get down the field and put points on the board than Hawaii throwing the ball.

Defensively, the Warriors have to key on Clay. Tolzien can certainly throw the ball when he has time, but that’s not Badgerball. Wisconsin wants to run and Clay is their main man. Shutting him down might be a tall order, but slowing him down is a must. If he’s allowed to run roughshod, he’ll help Wisconsin put together long drive after long drive and the defense will get very tired. By the fourth quarter, he’ll be picking up yards in huge chunks and Hawaii will be in trouble.

Hawaii needs to protect the football at all cost. Wisconsin’s offense will run them over. Unless Hawaii jumps out to a 28 point lead early, they can’t afford to give the ball away. A 14 point lead can be erased in a heartbeat if the Warriors hand the ball over to the Badgers even once.

How can Wisconsin win?

First, and foremost, remember that this is not a vacation to Hawaii. The Badgers can’t get caught up in the warm weather, sandy beaches, and pretty ladies. I’m sure the coaches will have them tied up with practices and whatnot, but they still can’t come into this thing thinking they’re on a school-sponsored vacation. Hawaii needs this win, and they’re going to fight tooth and nail to get it.

Obviously, John Clay is going to be the bulk of the offense once again. The Warriors are 5^th in the WAC in run defense, allowing 193.58 yards per game. It’s ripe for Clay’s picking. As I mentioned before, establishing a good, successful run game will wear down the Warrior defense, chew up a lot of clock, and keep that pass offense off the field.

Defensively, the Badgers have to get a lot of pressure into the backfield and on Bryant Moniz. Don’t allow him time to set up and throw. Force him to make throws on the run. Don’t allow him the time to make good reads.

The Badgers should be working for the turnover every time they’re on defense. Exploit Hawaii’s -9 turnover margin. It won’t be as easy as just reaching out and stealing the ball away, but tackles should be more than just tackles. They should be trying to strip the ball. They should be trying to pick off passes. Create opportunities for the offense to run away with the game.

What will likely happen?

This should be a fairly high scoring game. Each team’s offensive strength matches well against their opponent’s defensive weakness. Hawaii should move the ball in decent chunks and put themselves in great position to get points. Wisconsin, meanwhile, should steamroll the Warrior defense with John Clay, then put a little exclamation point on it with Tolzien throwing.

Two things will make all the difference: a) whoever’s defense steps up bigger and, b) whoever controls the turnovers. Given the strength on weakness dynamic of this game, the offenses should rule the day. If Hawaii can slow down Clay, they’ll have a big upper hand. Whoever controls the ball more often will win the game, though, so getting the turnovers will tip the scales.

In the end, Wisconsin has the edge. John Clay will keep Hawaii’s offense off the field and wear down their defense. Wisconsin’s +3 turnover margin also favors them. If there are any turnovers in this game, they’ll more likely go Wisconsin’s way than Hawaii’s. Finally, Wisconsin’s pass defense isn’t great, but it’s good enough to stop Hawaii more often than Hawaii will stop them.

Prediction?

Wisconsin 38 – Hawaii 30

Big Ten Bowl Projections

Since we only have two games going on this week in the Big Ten this week, it’s a good time to take a look at what the post-season looks like. As with most years, there are still some things that are outside of anyone’s control. The BCS does what it wants to do and Ohio State is the only team that cannot be swept aside by them in favor of someone else. There’s a two-way fight between Iowa and Penn State for a possible at-large bid and how that plays out will affect where everyone else goes.

Here’s how it should pan out – regardless of what happens in the two games going on this week:

*Rose Bowl January 1,2010, Pasadena, CA

Ohio State vs. Pac 10 Champion

Exactly who Ohio State will play is yet undecided. Oregon is the frontrunner, but Oregon State is just one game back in the Pac 10 race and they play each other this weekend. The winner of that game will be going to Pasadena to face the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl.

**Fiesta Bowl January 4, 2010, Phoenix, AZ

Iowa vs (Boise State?)

Technically, neither of these positions are near being decided. There are a lot of scenarios that are thrown around, depending on who you talk to. Some people believe that Penn State will get the invite to Phoenix over Iowa because of the “JoePa factor”, or because Penn State has a bigger name than Iowa. In their logic (which I don’t share), Iowa’s victory over Penn State in Happy Valley makes no difference when you’re talking about tv ratings.

That is assuming that the good folks on the bowl committee even want a Big Ten team at all. With six undefeated teams around the nation, and only two spots available in the National Championship Bowl, there could be a much better match waiting to happen than one that includes a Big Ten team – if you follow the “Big Ten Stinks” bandwagon, anyway.

Lastly, Texas could lose to Nebraska (not likely, but it is a conference championship after all), which would throw everything into turmoil. Since the Big XII champion wouldn’t be going to the national championship game, they would go to the Fiesta Bowl. That would be Iowa/Penn State/someone else against Nebraska.

If things work out right though, it should be Iowa in the Fiesta and they’ll probably be facing an undefeated Boise State team. That’s a lose-lose situation for Iowa, but I’ll get into that if it comes to fruition after the bowls are selected.

Capital One Bowl January 1, 2010, Orlando, FL

Penn State vs. (LSU?)

If the Nittany Lions aren’t handed a favor because of their legendary coach, or because of some past success, this is where they’ll land. There’s little speculation as to who their opponent will likely be. Either Florida or Alabama will be playing in the national championship and the other will get another BCS bowl. That leaves LSU, third in the SEC to take Cap One honors. Honestly, I hope this matchup happens. There could be far worse matches than a tough Nittany Lion team against a tough LSU squad.

Outback Bowl January 1, 2010, Tampa, FL

Wisconsin or Northwestern vs. (Tennessee)

Why Wisconsin or Northwestern? Remember last year anyone? Last year, Northwestern was 9-3 while Iowa was 8-4, yet the folks at the Outback Bowl chose the Hawkeyes over the Wildcats. Regardless of whether Wisconsin beats Hawaii or loses to them, the Outback folks have a habit of picking the people they want within the rules. Those rules state that they can take any team that’s eligible so long as they don’t possess two more wins or two more losses than the top remaining eligible team. At worst, Wisconsin and Northwestern will have identical records. At best, Wisconsin will only have one more win. So, the Outback Bowl can choose whichever team they want. They just can’t choose Michigan State or Minnesota.

On the other side of the coin is the SEC. Tennessee is tied with a lot of people at 7-5, but after the BCS shakes the tree a little, the Vols would be a likely candidate for selection here. Then again, check the standings in the SEC and run them down. There could be a number of options here.

Champs Sports Bowl December 29, 2009, Orlando, FL

Northwestern vs. (Miami?)

Virginia Tech could take this position instead of Miami. They have identical 9-3 records, and Tech did beat Miami head-to-head, which is why Miami will get the nod here. VT will be playing on January 1^st.

Northwestern will be here unless they’re chosen above Wisconsin for the Outback Bowl. That’s not at all impossible, so you could just as easily pencil Wisconsin in here. Those are the only two options. After this team is 6-6 Michigan State or 6-6 Minnesota. By rules, Champs couldn’t choose either of those teams if they wanted to, which they wouldn’t anyway.

Valero Alamo Bowl January 2, 2010, San Antonio, TX

Michigan State vs. (Texas Tech?)

Is it right that a team with a 6-6 record should be playing post-January 1^st? Not in my book. January bowl games used to be reserved for the best teams in America, not teams that barely make eligibility. The Spartans shouldn’t be anywhere near a January bowl game with a record like that. Still, here it is. It’s not like the Alamo Bowl people have a lot of choices. They get the 5^th pick of available Big Ten teams (after BCS selections), and assuming Iowa or Penn State gets a BCS bowl, it’s either MSU or Minnesota and they’re both at 6-6. The Spartans are a slightly bigger draw than the Golden Gophers, though Minnesota did win the head-to-head.

Never underestimate the almighty dollar, folks. That’s what drives a lot of these bowl games.

On the other side is the Big XII #4 spot. Missouri could get the nod, but again, Tech might be the more interesting draw.

Insight Bowl December 31, 2009, Tempe, AZ

Minnesota vs. (Missouri?)

Do I need to go back through the whole “this is either Minnesota or Michigan State” explanation? There are only two possible choices for the Insight people, and one of them will be taken. They get whoever is left. The only thing that would make this different is if the Big Ten doesn’t get a second BCS bid. Then the Insight really would get a choice between two teams. Then it’s a toss-up.

As for Missouri, it’s the very same story. This could be Texas Tech.

*The Rose Bowl is the only bowl that’s decided already and can’t be changed.

**If the BCS chooses Penn State over Iowa, just insert Iowa in the Capital One and the rest stay the same. If they don’t pick a second BCS team, then every B10 team shuffles down a bowl.

In that scenario:

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl December 26, 2009, Detroit, MI

Minnesota vs. Central Michigan

For Minnesota fans, this would be a worst-case scenario. No offense to the Little Caesars folks, but playing in Detroit on the day after Christmas is about like not playing a bowl at all. It’s not a warm, sunny climate. People aren’t really paying that much attention to bowl games yet. It’s not a bowl Big Ten teams really rave about going to when they’re laying out their hopes of a post-season destination. In fact, most would rather not play it.

The match-up for this one is Big Ten seventh selection (whoever’s left) vs. MAC. It could be Ohio here instead of Central Michigan. Saturday’s game will decide that.

Let’s be honest a moment

The Big Ten wants to improve its image, right? The only way you accomplish that is by beating tough opponents out of conference. The best indicator of a conference’s strength is how well they fare in bowl games. Last year, the Big Ten was 1-6 with an underrated Iowa’s victory over an overrated South Carolina as that one win. The only way to counter the bad image is to have a great bowl season, and I do mean great.

Now, if the Big Ten does get two teams into the BCS and five teams playing in January, then they have an opportunity to defeat some pretty respectable opponents and help their image a ton. On the other hand, wouldn’t it be better for the Big Ten if more of their teams were facing slightly lesser competition?

Imagine Minnesota against Central Michigan (or Ohio) rather than Missouri. Imagine Michigan State against Missouri rather than Texas Tech. Imagine Iowa against LSU (rematch of the classic 2005 Capital One?) instead of Boise State.

As a fan of the conference, I’d love nothing more than to see as many of their teams as possible playing in January. As a fan of the conference, though, I’d also like to see them sweep their bowl games. In the long run, it could do more for the conference by winning a ton of bowl games against slightly lesser competition than by losing to the toughest possible opponents available.

It’ll all get sorted out this coming Sunday.

Until then, HAPPY BOWL HUNTING!