
| Eleven Thoughts on the Big Ten - Week 12 |
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| Written by Stix Symmonds | |
| Tuesday, 24 November 2009 21:57 | |
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I’ve got a few thoughts about it all…eleven to be precise. 1. Ohio State: The throw-back uniforms looked good, but didn’t help your performance.I liked the old uniform. Of course, I’m the type that tends to think simple is better – not that their current uniforms aren’t simple. The rivalry game against Michigan lacked a lot of luster in more ways than one, though. It’s been well documented for a couple of years now that the game just doesn’t mean as much as it used to. That’s thanks, of course, to Michigan’s collapse. This game used to decide the conference championship, and often who would get a shot at the national title. The last couple of years, though, Michigan hasn’t even been bowl eligible, let alone conference title eligible. The game has been more of a layup before bowl selections for Ohio State than a real rivalry. For a little bit, though, the game Saturday started to look a little like the old rivalry. Despite fielding the conference’s 9th rated defense, Michigan held the mighty Buckeyes to just one score per quarter through the first three and shut the out of the fourth. Ohio State got four interceptions and a fumble recovery in the end zone. Yet, they only scored 21 points. The Buckeyes converted just 4 of 15 third downs (27%), three of them passing, despite running for 251 yards. This was a game against a team the Buckeyes should have blown out of the water. Instead, they demonstrated just how one-sided they are and did very little to convince fans that they have what it takes to win the Rose Bowl.
2. Michigan: Now that it’s over, let the gnashing of teeth really begin.It’s probably not entirely fair, but Rich Rodriguez is about to face a hail storm of criticism. On one hand are the allegations that he violated NCAA rules by forcing or otherwise “suggesting” that his players spend more than the allotted time practicing. That investigation is just now under way, even though the allegations came out before the season even got going. No doubt, more details will begin to surface now that the season is over, but there’s little doubt that there will be a lot of questions that will be asked publicly about Rodriguez’s coaching techniques. On the other hand is the fact that Michigan will miss a bowl game for the second consecutive year – the first time that has happened since 1961-1962. There are a ton of schools that would accept a 5-7 season when it comes on the heels of a 3-9 season. It is, after all, improvement, and that’s all you can really expect when you have a new coach with a completely new system that requires new personnel. That’s the part that may be a little unfair. That Rodriguez will face criticism for failing to achieve a bowl game in only his second season is just a sign of Michigan’s undeserved sense of entitlement. Yes, the program has a long history of success and a near-permanent “elite” status. And yes, this is the worst second season of Rodriguez’s coaching career. But tearing down a program like Michigan and building it back up from the ground up takes time. Bringing in Tate Forcier and having him start the entire season is a great start, but don’t forget that Forcier is a true freshman and performed admirably considering. The rest of the pieces will take a little time to put into place. The Wolverines were expecting a bowl game and not getting it sits sourly with the fans. Still, they looked very good early in the year, and did improve over last year. Next year, if Rodriguez isn’t sacked over the NCAA violations, they should find their way somewhere warm for the post season. In the meantime, there are already a slew of people calling for his head, and it’s going to get a lot worse.
3. Iowa: Now comes the waiting game.Iowa should be invited to a BCS bowl. Is that fair? No, probably not, in light of the fact that there are six undefeated teams at the moment. We’ve got plenty of time to debate that, though. What is certain is that Iowa isn’t exactly a lock for a BCS bid at all. Despite starting the season 9-0; despite beating Wisconsin and #13 Penn State on the road; Iowa could easily get leapfrogged for the big game. It doesn’t help that their last game against Minnesota was an offensive nightmare. There were more punts than points scored (17 and 12 respectively). James Vandenberg threw for just 117 yards and an interception. Adam Robinson had a good rushing day going, running for 72 yards on 12 carries (6.0 ypc), but rolled over his injured ankle, aggravating it and jeopardizing his recovery time considerably. The defense was the one bright spot (yet again) shutting Minnesota out and picking up four turnovers in a 12-0 win. The win bumped Iowa up to #11 in the BCS and keeps them firmly in the hunt for a BCS game. Between the Hawkeyes and the Nittany Lions, Iowa should get the call. Oklahoma State and Boise State could still sufficiently impress pollsters and get that final at-large bid. The Hawks have to hope that their resume is good enough as it stands since they won’t have any more opportunities to impress the powers-that-be.
4. Minnesota: There’s a lot left to figure out before bowl time.It’s a gift that Minnesota will even go bowling at all. Most years, 6-6 is a real crap shoot for a bowl game. Last season there were seven teams with a 7-5 or better record. Minnesota was one of those 7-5 squads. Things were a bit different this year, with three teams finishing 10-2, but Minnesota’s bowl hopes remained uncertain until Ohio State defeated Michigan to end the season. Unlike last year, when Minnesota jumped out to a huge start, then faded down the stretch, the Gophers spent this year floating right around .500. At best, they were 3-1 after beating Northwestern in the conference opener. From that point forward, they were 3-5 and playing a game of one-up, one-down. WR Eric Decker, the most productive Gopher in quite some time, might not be back in time for Minnesota’s bowl game. That means QB Adam Weber may have to continue to rely on people he’s not so comfortable with to get the most important win of the season. But I’ve spoken enough about that over the past several weeks. Minnesota has to figure out their defense. They looked good against Iowa in the finale, holding the Hawkeyes to just twelve points and only twelve first downs. They held the Hawkeyes to just one third down conversion. The thing is, that was against an offense that was sketchy under the best of times, and was downright awful while dealing with a slew of injuries. RB Adam Robinson was nowhere near 100% and still had a 6.0 yard-per-carry average going before rolling over his already injured ankle and ending his day. Redshirt freshman James Vandenberg is getting better, but the game Saturday was only his second start as a Hawkeye and he was making some obviously freshman mistakes. The receivers struggled to hang onto footballs and Vandenberg opted to take sacks rather than throw the ball away and preserve field position. This wasn’t really a test for their defense. They just showed up and let Iowa self-destruct over and over again. Whoever they face in their bowl game won’t be that willing to help the Gophers’ cause. They’d better figure out how to play solid defense, unless their offense suddenly becomes a much more powerful unit.
5. Penn State: That performance should have been enough to jump past Iowa.No apologies, I’m an Iowa fan – have been my whole life. I’m also a Big Ten fan who can remain objective when discussing the conference and weighing the performances of other teams. The objective truth is: that 42-14 win over Michigan State in East Lansing is good enough to negate Iowa’s 21-10 win in Happy Valley. They’re on even footing now, so whom do you choose for the at-large BCS bid? Oh, I know, head-to-head means more than what each did against common opponents. Not necessarily; not when the head-to-head game happened in late September. Not when Penn State was still trying to figure out their team minus the all-stars that departed after last season and Iowa was (almost) fully healthy and playing their best ball. Since that time, Penn State has looked much more Penn State-ish while Iowa has begun to look much more Purdue-ish (only with a solid defense but no offense instead of the other way around). By the time January rolls around, most of Iowa’s injured players will be healthy and ready to contribute, but they’ll have been many weeks out of production. How crisp will they be? What condition will they be in? Penn State will only have to deal with the usual lethargy that takes place during the six week layoff between final regular season game and bowl game. They won’t have to deal with key personnel recovering trying to get back in the swing after injury as well. In a couple short weeks, the BCS will make their selections for who they want to play in their games. Whether or not they choose Penn State is still anyone’s guess. Whatever their decisions are, the Lions can rest assured that they did what they needed to plead their case.
6. Michigan State: Start packing for the Alamo…or Insight…Thanks to that thrilling (cough, cough) 42-14 loss to Penn State, the Spartans will finish sixth in the final Big Ten standings. That’s good enough for a trip to San Antonio. Then again, the good folks of Texas may just decide that Minnesota is the better draw. Remember that the Alamo Bowl gets fifth (or sixth if there’s a second Big Ten team playing a BCS bowl) pick of which Big Ten team they want to come play, but they don’t necessarily have to pick the fifth best team in the Big Ten. The only restriction that they have is that they can’t pick a team with two fewer wins or two more losses than the top remaining available team. That shouldn’t be a problem as every eligible team besides MSU and Minnesota will be gone by the time the Alamo gets to pick, and both of those teams are 6-6. Why would they want Minnesota over Michigan State? Well, there is that 42-34 victory over Michigan State that the Golden Gophers put up back in week 9. From a competition stand point, neither team has beaten a ranked opponent this year, but Minnesota did face more top 25 teams and did win the head-to-head. We all know that bowl games are really about money though, and the money comes with whichever team will sell more tickets and generate more interest in the game. In that arena, the Spartans may hold an advantage. They don’t travel as well as Iowa or Penn State, but they don’t do too poorly and thanks to last season’s performance, more people are likely to tune in on TV to Michigan State than to Minnesota. Should the Alamo choose Minnesota over the Spartans, then they’ll be going to Tempe, Arizona for the Insight Bowl. The folks in Tempe put on a pretty decent bowl and treat visitors very well, so the Spartans would be lucky to play there as well. As far as prestige goes, though, the Alamo is in January and the Insight is in December. Of course, in the BCS era, if you’re not playing in January, you’re not really playing. Wherever Michigan State goes, they should probably consider themselves lucky. Their season has been anything but what they expected and far less than what they were capable of. It’s time to go back to work, ironing out whatever they can before they find out who their opponent will be and can start putting together a game plan. Then, the Spartans need to put together a good performance to generate positive momentum into the 2010 season.
7. Purdue: Not a bad finish.Beating Indiana 38-21 isn’t too bad. It could’ve been worse. That’s not really what I’m talking about, though. As bad as Purdue looked on paper through the first six weeks, they actually looked pretty good over the last six. The first half of the season saw Purdue go 1-5 with their only win coming against Toledo. The second half saw the Boilermakers go 4-2 with wins over Ohio State, at Michigan, and at Indiana, as well as a very narrow loss to Michigan State. In the end, the Boilermakers are still a game short of challenging for an open bowl selection – one they might have actually gotten thanks to their tough play against Oregon and Ohio State. They would have been an interesting draw, but it’s all moot since they didn’t make eligibility. Still, that finish should do wonders for Danny Hope’s crew in providing momentum they can carry into 2010.
8. Indiana: There was no fast start this time, and it didn’t make a difference.The Hoosiers had no hope of a bowl game. Going into their rivalry game against Purdue, at home, Indiana was 4-7 with no chance at all of becoming bowl eligible. The only thing on the line against the Boilermakers was pride – and the Old Oaken Bucket, of course. For once, the Hoosiers didn’t come out of the gates with a fast start that faded down the stretch. They were outscored by Purdue 14-0 in the first quarter, then found their way to the endzone once each quarter through the rest of the game. Unfortunately, they allowed Purdue to score at least once per quarter as well. At the final whistle, the Hoosiers were down 38-21. It’s almost poetic though, when taking their entire season into perspective. The Hoosiers started the season 3-0. Then they faded, winning just one more game the rest of the way. Indiana ended their season on a five game losing streak. Granted, those three wins weren’t against anyone special (Eastern Kentucky, Western Michigan, and Akron), nor was their latest win (Illinois), but it’s the symbolism. Several times this year, the Hoosiers have jumped out to early leads only to have everything sour on them. That’s pretty well the way their season went as well, jumping out to a good early start, only to see it all go south. The Oaken Bucket stays with Purdue. There’s no bowl game to prepare for. There’s nothing much to take from the season but a hand full of “what-if’s”. There’s a lot to figure out before next September rolls around.
9. Wisconsin: If you had any hope at all of snagging one of the “big bowls”, it went away with that loss to Northwestern.Was Wisconsin even really in the running for a BCS bowl? Only technically. Their record of 8-2 was good enough that 10-2 was achievable, and that would have kept them tied with Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State. The Buckeyes were already set for the Rose Bowl, but the Badgers could have at least argued that they were as deserving as Penn State (they didn’t beat any rated opponents either) and had better name recognition than Iowa. It was a long-shot, but hey, stranger things have happened. That all went out the window, though, when the Badgers fell 33-31 to Northwestern. In a back-and-forth battle, Wisconsin fell down 10-0 in the first quarter but battled back to take a 14-10 lead early in the second. They gave up 17 unanswered points before the half, though. The Badgers scored ten more points to open up the second half, but gave up a couple more field goals late in the third and early in the fourth quarters. A final touchdown made it a two point game, but the Badgers couldn’t pick up a field goal to get the win. And just like that, any hope of a BCS bowl was lost. Now, it’s time to start planning for a trip to Hawaii for a great end-of-season game in a tropical location. From there, it’ll likely be Tampa for the Outback Bowl. Either Iowa or Penn State will probably get an at-large BCS bid and the other will head to the Capital One Bowl in Orlando. That’s still a huge improvement over last year when they were 7-5 and got blown out by Florida State in the Champs Sports Bowl.
10. Northwestern: That strong finish should do wonders for your bowl aspirations.Three weeks ago, things looked a little “iffy” for the Wildcats. They were 5-4 and still had a trip to undefeated Iowa and a home date against Wisconsin to deal with. Having Illinois sandwiched in the middle helped ensure at least bowl eligibility. But Northwestern didn’t settle for that. They went on the road and handed Iowa their first loss of the year, knocked off Illinois on the road, then came back home and took down the Badgers as well. The three game sweep to end the season was the most impressive portion of the entire year, especially for a team that lost to Syracuse and Minnesota early, then was beaten solidly by Michigan State and blown out by Penn State. Northwestern didn’t just make a case for a bowl game, they made a strong case for a very good bowl game. Unfortunately, 8-4 won’t be good enough to challenge for the Capital One like it would have a year ago, thanks to OSU, PSU, and Iowa all ending with 10-2 records, and Wisconsin likely to end at 9-3. Still, a New Year’s date in the Outback isn’t out of the question anymore and their recent record certainly indicates that they deserve it.
11. Illinois: This schedule would have been really smart if you were any good.Before the season started, Penn State coach Joe Paterno lobbied the Big Ten to add a twelfth team. His reasoning was that Big Ten teams are at a disadvantage to other conferences since they don’t play a conference title game and generally end their season before Thanksgiving. That leaves the teams doing nothing but practice for four-to-six weeks before they play their bowl games. Anyone who has really competed in athletics can tell you that spending too much time practicing without a live opponent to face leads to what we call “rust”. You’re just not as sharp as you are when you get to put your practice into a real game situation against people you haven’t seen in a long time, if ever. So, old Joe had a good point, and a valid one. Illinois, however, went out and kind of blew his argument for another team out of the water. They took two breaks during the regular season and scheduled Cincinnati and Fresno State after Thanksgiving, allowing them to play all the way to December 5th and keeping them as sharp as their potential competition. They also scheduled Missouri, who was a solid top 25 last year, in the season opener, giving their schedule a little added strength. It should have been a recipe for BCS consideration – if only Illinois was any good. Sitting at 3-7 with wins over Illinois State, Michigan, and Minnesota, and losses to everyone else, this schedule looks more like self-inflicted torture than genius. Right about now most Illini fans (and probably some players and coaches) are just wanting this nightmare of a season to be over. Instead of getting to go home and lick their wounds, they’ve got to prepare for two additional tough opponents who can easily add to Illinois’ woes. If Illinois was anywhere near what they were supposed to be, this could be a BCS push. Instead, it’s just a continuation of the nightmare. Nice thinking, but bad, bad timing.
Until next time, HAPPY THANKSGIVING and HAPPY BOWL HUNTING!
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