The conference title has been decided. Ohio State’s in; Iowa’s out. Just as importantly, the rest of the bowl picture is coming into focus.

I’ve got some thoughts on the Big Ten – eleven of them to be precise.

1. Ohio State: Welcome to the Rose Bowl!

If you’re an Iowa fan, feel free to move on to another section of this article. I feel your pain.

Ohio State did what they needed to do, when they needed to do it. The win Saturday over #13 Iowa wasn’t pretty. They squandered a 14 point fourth quarter lead, gave up 24 points (most they’ve allowed in a win since week 1 vs. Navy) to an offense that’s one of the worst in the Big Ten, and needed overtime heroics to put away a team that’s struggling with a roster full of injuries. That wasn’t exactly a real “statement” game for the Buckeyes.

But don’t get down on them. Jim Tressell’s crew did exactly what was necessary against a team that simply refuses to lie down and die. When Iowa tied things up in the third quarter, Ohio State came to life and added two scores to their total and put the Hawkeyes back into a hole. When the Hawks came storming back late in the game, the Buckeyes buckled down and stopped Iowa in their tracks. When the game was on the line in overtime, the Buckeyes got nasty on defense and shoved the Hawkeyes out of field goal range, then picked off their last ditch effort at a score.

And then they played smart football. It wasn’t sexy to run the ball three times up the middle, knowing they probably weren’t going to get a score. But it put them in perfect position to kick an easy field goal and seal more than just a win: they sealed a trip to Pasadena. Now, it doesn’t matter what Iowa, Penn State, Michigan State, or anyone else does; Ohio State has won all tie breakers and will represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl.

2. Iowa: Chin-up. That was a fantastic performance.

Following their 27-24 overtime loss to Ohio State, my brother quipped that he sometimes felt “like a Cubs fan”. As good as Iowa may be, they never seem to be able to get to the big show, and when they do, it isn’t a pretty outcome. I completely agree.

However, last Saturday’s loss in Columbus needs to be looked at with some perspective. Iowa hasn’t won in the Horseshoe since 1991 and only three times since Eisenhower was in office. The Hawkeyes had a true freshman quarterback making his first-ever college start in one of the toughest venues in college football. Their first string running back has missed the entire season from an injury, their second string was hobbling with a high ankle sprain and their third string was sitting out thanks to bruised ribs. They were missing an All-American caliber lineman. Oh yeah, and all of this was against the fourth rated defense in America.

To say that the deck was stacked against the Hawkeyes is perhaps the biggest understatement of the year.

Did any of that stop the Hawkeyes from believing they could win the game? Hardly. It was just one more hurdle to overcome in a season chalk full of hurdles overcome. When the Buckeyes said “bring it”, Iowa simply smiled and said “oh it has been broughten” - or something like that.

James Vandenberg looked more like a veteran, completing 20 of 33 passes (60.6%) for 233 yards and two touchdowns, than the true freshman he is. Adam Robinson ran the ball 20 times for 74 yards – bum ankle and all. Most importantly, when the chips were down (trailing 24-10 in the 4^th quarter), the Hawkeyes answered with all the moxy of a championship team that deserved to be at the top of the Big Ten ladder.

When this season is done, there will likely be a whole lot of “what ifs” floating around about the Hawkeyes. What if Iowa hadn’t lost to Northwestern when Ricky Stanzi went down? What if they’d gone for the win against Ohio State instead of playing for overtime, and succeeded? Would the Hawkeyes have sufficiently impressed the BCS to get into the biggest game of all? What if they’d lost to Northwestern, but beat the Buckeyes and gone to the Rose Bowl? Would they have won their first Tournament of Roses game since whooping California 38-12 way back in 1958?

It’s all a bunch of worthless wondering though. What Iowa has done this season is something pretty special. With a team full of no-names, dealing with injuries, overcoming obstacles at every turn; Iowa managed to get themselves into the national title discussion, picked up (at least) a nine-win season, beat most of the toughest teams in the conference on the road, and elevated themselves firmly into the conference elite. Rather than worrying about what might have been this year, I’m excited about what is, and even more excited about what may be next year when virtually everyone from this magical season returns for another go of it.

3. Penn State: That win was nice, but there’s still a potential BCS bid in the works – they need to be bigger.

It would seem like crazy-talk to be discussing the Nittany Lions in conjunction with a BCS bowl when they lost to both Ohio State and Iowa, and both games were at home. It’s not completely out of the picture though.

First-thing’s-first, though. This last weekend, Penn State put away Indiana 31-20. After falling behind 10-0 in the first quarter, the Lions tied it up in the second, then started pulling away through the third and fourth quarters. The Lion defense gave up a touchdown and field goal in the first quarter, then held them scoreless throughout the second and third quarters. Even though they gave up ten more points in the fourth, Daryll Clark & Company put up fourteen of their own to put the game away.

Now, back to the whole BCS thing:

That’s not good enough. Consider that the Big Ten (still) has an automatic BCS bid aside from the Rose Bowl. Ohio State’s going to the Rose Bowl, but there are three teams fighting for that second spot, should the BCS decide to grant the Big Ten that second spot. Right now, Iowa still holds the upper hand, thanks to victories over Penn State, Wisconsin, and Michigan State – all on the road. The Hawkeyes are only barely above the Lions in the BCS standings, though, because the Coaches and AP don’t really like them. How else to you explain Penn State and Wisconsin ranking above Iowa in both polls over the last two weeks despite the fact that Iowa beat them both? All it will take is for Penn State to sufficiently impress the coaches and AP folks for them to leapfrog Iowa in the BCS standings and become the #2 team in the Big Ten.

Wisconsin hasn’t been in the mix since losing back-to-back games to Ohio State and Iowa in weeks 6 & 7. They’re a good team; probably better than they’re given credit for, but they lost to the two toughest teams in the conference in consecutive weeks and the perception of their strength took a major hit. It’s never completely recovered. Penn State is still considered the tougher of the two teams, and will remain in that position unless something drastic happens in the final week of the season.

Penn State could conceivably get a post-January 1 BCS game, but they’ll have to really impress some people to make that happen. Eleven point wins over teams they should completely annihilate won’t get it done. Iowa still looks pretty strong, despite all of their injuries and their consecutive losses. If they thrash Minnesota in the final week, Penn State will have to make a huge statement against Michigan State to steal away a BCS bowl. It’s not impossible, but it’ll take much, much more – especially since their schedule is perceived to be so incredibly weak.

4. Indiana: This start fast – fade fast thing you’ve got going on isn’t working.

Indiana can play good football. They really can. They just can’t seem to play it for a full game, and that’s what’s killing them.

Let’s take a look at the honor roll of missed opportunities.

Week 4 – Indiana leads Michigan 26-21 going into the fourth quarter, then give up 15 points, while only gaining 7. Final score: Michigan 36 – Indiana 33.

Week 8 – Indiana leads Northwestern 28-3 in the first half. They then give up 14 points before the half and 12 more in the second half. Final score: Northwestern 29 – Indiana 28.

Week 9 – Indiana leads Iowa 21-7 at the half and 24-14 at the end of the third quarter. They then give up 28 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. Final score: Iowa 42 – Indiana 24.

Week 11 – Indiana leads Penn State 10-0 after the first quarter. They then go scoreless through two quarters and have to fight from behind against a rated opponent. Final score: Penn State 31 – Indiana 20.

Granted, holding Penn State down for three quarters when you only lead by ten is a far cry from holding down Northwestern for two and a half quarters when you lead by 25. You can excuse that game from the list if you want, but there’s no excusing the others. Michigan looked very good in the early going, but were exposed. Indiana should have been the one to expose them. Northwestern is good, but not great, and there’s no excuse for allowing them to make a 26 point run. Despite the fact that Iowa was undefeated, and in the national title hunt, Indiana had them by the throat. There’s absolutely no reason they should be allowed to put up 28 points in a single quarter to win.

Indiana is now 4-7 and out of the bowl hunt altogether. If they had been able to hold off even two of those four losses, they’d be 6-5, bowl eligible, and have a winnable game against Purdue to secure a 13^th game. Given their true ability, they should really be 7-4 and heading somewhere warm for the Holidays.

The fast start may be exciting, but getting beat down the stretch hasn’t done this team any favors.

5. Wisconsin: The schedule could work in their favor now.

A month or so ago, Wisconsin’s 45-24 drumming of Michigan would’ve looked pretty darn impressive. Going into the second week of October, Michigan was 4-1 and their only loss was an overtime thriller against in-state rival, Michigan State. They’d beaten Notre Dame four weeks earlier and had easily taken care of their other opponents, with the exception of a narrow win over Indiana.

Now, it’s not such a big deal. Michigan had lost three straight and five of their last six. That great start started looking more and more like a mirage.

The Badgers traded punches with the Wolverines throughout the first half. The lead changed hands four times through the first two quarters with halftime seeing the Badgers ahead just 21-17. Then, Scott Tolzien, John Clay, and the rest of the guys in Crimson and White decided to stop playing around. The Badgers outscored the Wolverines 24-7 in the second half and made their 45-24 victory look pretty easy.

Next up is a potentially tough road trip to Northwestern, then a nice, warm, early December date in Hawai’i.

If Wisconsin can win them both, they’ll end the year with a very respectable 10-2 record, which should be good enough for a January bowl game. The sad part is, if all stays with the status quo, that bowl game will likely be the Outback Bowl. There’s nothing wrong with the Outback Bowl, but generally, a team with a 10-2 record would be looking for a BCS bowl, or at least the Capital One Bowl.

If Iowa and Penn State both win their remaining games, one will get BCS consideration while the other will likely get the Cap One nod. That only leaves the Outback for Wisconsin. It’s not impossible that Wisconsin could jump ahead of either of these teams, but it would be difficult to believe that the Badgers would leapfrog the Hawkeyes since Wisconsin hosted Iowa and lost.

What helps is that December 5^th date at Hawai’i. While Penn State and Iowa will be braving the cold in practices on campus, the Badgers will be basking in the sun and surf, picking up important game experience, and staying fresh in the minds of pollsters – who ultimately decide the fate of all bowl-bound teams.

The Badgers have done a great job in turning their fortunes around this season, but the best move they may have made was to schedule a December date at a warm, winnable location.

6. Michigan: Are they getting what they deserve?

After last week’s loss to Northwestern, Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said that he believed “you generally get what you deserve”. He was talking about his own Hawkeyes dropping out of the national title picture, but could it be holding true for Michigan this year as well?

Again, you have to look at this season with a little perspective. Last year, this program was 3-9. With one game left, this year’s version is 5-6. The worst case scenario for this team now is a two-game improvement over last season. That hopes got un-deservedly high after just four games is not the fault of Rich Rodriguez or his players. This is still very much a program in transition. They’re still breaking in a new coach, a new system, and a new quarterback. Right now, they’re within a game of where most people predicted them to be.

I’ve heard more than a few fans who aren’t very happy with this second consecutive non-bowl season, though. They’re starting to wonder if RichRod has what it takes to coach in Ann Arbor. They’re starting to really wonder if this new, lighter, system will work in the Big Ten.

In fairness, Michigan could still get a bowl. It would require knocking off the league leader, Ohio State, but nothing’s impossible. It’s not even close to being likely, though.

Are the fans a little bit right? Are the Wolverines paying for not having patience? Are they paying for somehow believing that they’re entitled to an annual shot at the conference title and/or national title?

Last weekend’s 24-45 thumping they took at the hands of Wisconsin is just another reminder that they’re not back to being the Michigan of old. The question that really nags at Michigan fans is: what if they never are again?

7. Northwestern: Second chances are a beautiful thing, aren’t they?

Pat Fitzgerald’s crew had one main objective going into their 2008 campaign – win a bowl game. They finished their regular season 9-3 and looked like they would fulfill their dreams. They just couldn’t quite figure out how to beat Missouri.

This year, hopes were high. High hopes don’t buy bowl games though, and it’s been touch-and-go all year long for the Wildcats.

After starting 2-2, a bowl appearance was anything but a given. Two wins over Purdue and Miami (OH) made it a more comfortable thought. Then they split Michigan State (loss) and Indiana (win). Things really got murky. They were 5-3, but had a trip to undefeated Iowa, another trip to resurgent Illinois, and a home date against two-loss Wisconsin. None of those games were easy wins.

Northwestern made a huge splash by handing the Hawkeyes their first loss of the season. Now they’ve followed that up with a 21-16 win over Illinois. Just like that, they’ve got a second chance at completing last season’s mission.

This year’s version of the Wildcats isn’t as powerful as last year’s, and a win against Wisconsin is anything but a given. In all honesty, it doesn’t matter. Believe it or not, Northwestern doesn’t want too prestigious a bowl game. They want one they can win. That’s step one. Next year they can work on getting to a New Year’s bowl game and winning. After that, they can talk about conference championships.

Right now, they just need to win. Given the season they’ve had, that would be some very sweet vindication.

8. Illinois: The dream was short lived.

When Illinois started their season at 1-6, a bowl game was farthest from anyone’s mind. Maybe it should have stayed that way. But Illinois made a few people wonder.

Juice Williams put together a masterful performance, looking like the all-star he’s supposed to be, in a 38-13 rout of Michigan. They followed that up by traveling to Minnesota and knocking off the Gophers 35-32. All of a sudden, a bowl game wasn’t impossible.

With Northwestern, at #5 Cincinnati, and Fresno State left on the schedule, it was a tall order, but if Illinois was really and truly back, nothing was impossible.

That can all be put to rest now. Thanks to a 21-16 defeat at the hands of Northwestern, Illinois will most definitely be home for Christmas. It really doesn’t matter how Illinois performs now against Cincy and Fresno State, there won’t be any sunny celebrations down south.

Now it’s all about building for next year. After this letdown of a season, Illinois had better start finding something they can build on.

9. Michigan State: You’re bowl eligible, but will you be playing in December?

There are seven bowls with Big Ten tie-ins. Right now Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Minnesota, and Michigan State are eligible. Michigan could still become eligible with one more win, but they have to play Ohio State, so it’s not likely.

Should Michigan pull off the miracle and defeat Ohio State, there may some worry in Spartan camp. The Wolverines have a long history of good showing at bowl games and would almost certainly get a bid somewhere. That would mean that it would come down between Michigan State and Minnesota for the final bowl spot. The Spartans have to play Penn State to finish their season while Minnesota has to face Iowa. Neither are very likely to win, but Minnesota has the slight edge given Iowa’s late woes and the ferocity of their rivalry.

Worst case scenario: Michigan upsets Ohio State, Minnesota upsets Iowa, and Michigan State loses to Penn State. That would give Minnesota seven wins, Michigan would likely get the nod over State, and the Spartans could be home for the Holidays.

Best case scenario: Michigan loses to Ohio State. Then it doesn’t matter what Minnesota does against Iowa, or what the Spartans do against the Lions – they’re in a bowl.

All of that is for next week to worry about, though. Right now, Michigan State should be celebrating. With Penn State looming ahead, Michigan State needed a win over Buckeye-killer Purdue to become eligible. They got that win and are in a good position to go bowling.

10. Purdue: Oh, the season that could have been!

Purdue needed to win out to become bowl eligible. After knocking off Ohio State in mid-October, dismantling Illinois, and picking up a win over Michigan, it didn’t look so impossible. After all, Michigan State isn’t so tough, and Indiana is tailor-made for a Boilermaker win.

Unfortunately, Michigan State was a little tougher than Purdue had anticipated. Either that, or the Boilermakers just couldn’t shake the public’s perception of them. Whatever the reason, Michigan State handed the Boilermakers their 7^th loss of the season, 40-37. That officially eliminates them from bowl contention.

But for just a moment, think about what might have been. Think about the two point loss at Oregon. Think about the three point loss to Notre Dame. Think about this latest three point loss to Michigan State. There are other close games out there, but eight points is all that separates Purdue from being 7-3 right now with wins over two ranked opponents. Not only would a bowl game be definite, a January bowl would be within reach. For a team that’s perennially in the conference cellar, that’s pretty amazing to think about.

11. Minnesota: That was too close against an inferior opponent.

It’s acceptable to lose to California, Penn State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. All four are rated in the BCS top 25 (though California doesn’t show up in the polls) and Minnesota really wasn’t expected to be among the conference elite. Losing to Illinois is a little embarrassing. But beating South Dakota State by a score of 16-13? That’s unacceptable.

This is the point in the season where you’re making your case for the best possible bowl game. This is the point where you’re trying to convince the bowl reps that you’ll not only bring a lot of fans to the game, but that you’ll make a good contest of it. After all, they not only want good ticket sales, they also want good television ratings so they can better negotiate with the networks next year.

With all due respect to SDSU, this Gopher team is supposed to be tougher than that. This is the team that nearly knocked off Wisconsin. This is the team that did knock off Michigan State. This is the team that went into the fourth quarter against California all knotted up. Teams like that just don’t narrowly miss against FCS opponents. They just don’t.

Next up is Iowa and don’t fool yourself. The Hawkeyes may be dealing with a ton of injuries, and they may be on a two game losing skid, but they’re not soft. This Hawkeye team just put up 24 points and took Ohio State to overtime with a true freshman at quarterback and a running back that was far less than 100%.

It’ll take more than that to knock off the Hawkeyes, and more than that to win whatever bowl game they get invited to.

One more thing: what’s wrong with the AP and the Coaches?

I get that the human element in the ranking process allows for humans to override the computers by taking into consideration factors that the computers can’t detect. But how is it that teams like Iowa get rated below teams like Penn State and Wisconsin in those polls when the Hawkeyes beat both of them on the road? Don’t tell me that it’s because Penn State and Wisconsin look better right now than the Hawkeyes do. That’s what Power Rankings are for. The polls aren’t “power rankings”…they’re supposed to be rankings based on the entirety of the season to that point. Iowa beat both PSU and Wisconsin in their respective houses, but get punished for dropping to Northwestern when their quarterback was injured and then again for losing in overtime to Ohio State in the Horseshoe?

What is it? Is it that you can’t stomach that a team like Iowa can have that kind of success with less-than-adequate talent? Is it that you work so hard to bring in (or love on, in the case of the AP) four and five star recruits, and you don’t like that Iowa can win with two and three star recruits?

Or is it that you don’t like that Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz is so even-keeled, never getting overly excitable in wins or losses? Is it that he takes whatever happens on the field in stride, never assuming that his team got screwed out of something they deserved, and is always willing to admit that they’re not an “elite team”?

Or is it that just two years ago, Iowa was 6-6, and looked nothing like a championship caliber team? So, only teams like Florida, Texas, USC, or LSU are worthy of your real respect, is that it? Because, teams like that always win at least nine games, and on a really good year go undefeated?

The fact that the BCS is broken goes far beyond the exclusion of teams like TCU, Boise State, or Utah from national title talk. The BCS is also broken because there is a bias against any team that doesn’t quite fit the mold of a superpower – regardless of what they do on the field.

That’s what I think.

Until next time, HAPPY BOWL HUNTING!