The conference race likely comes down to this.  Iowa is at Ohio State for all the Big Ten marbles.  Illinois and Michigan State hang onto their bowl hopes by the thinnest of threads.  Penn State is fighting for a potential BCS at-large bid, as is Wisconsin.  Things aren’t just heating up, they’re white hot.  It’s crunch time in a lot of ways.

I’ve got a trip out of town this weekend, so this one will be short and sweet.

South Dakota State at Minnesota Saturday, November 14^th, 12:00 (BTN)

Why would you want to watch this game?

Minnesota is one game short of bowl eligibility.  With a trip to Iowa City ending their regular season in two weeks, this is Minnesota’s chance to become eligible so they can spend next week making their case for a 13^th game.

So, what’s the skinny?

Minnesota’s coming off a tough loss to an Illinois team that virtually everyone thought they should beat.  That’s after putting together a masterful performance the week before against Michigan State, despite the loss of WR Eric Decker.

QB Adam Weber had a fantastic game against the Spartans, throwing for 416 yards and 5 touchdowns.  Duane Bennett and Nick Tow-Arnett each caught two touchdown passes, and Weber spread the ball around to six different receivers, keeping Michigan State wondering who would get it next.  Things actually looked better than they had even with Decker in the lineup.

Then last week, Minnesota took a big step backward.  The Gopher defense didn’t even show up for the first half, allowing the Illini to put 28 points on the board before the break.  Part of that may have been due to the change of quarterbacks for the Illini.  After Juice Williams sat down with an ankle injury, James Charest completed 10 of 19 passes for 185 yards and a touchdown – not fantastic numbers, but definitely a look Minnesota wasn’t ready for.  Even a stellar fourth quarter wasn’t enough to get the win.

South Dakota State is sporting a 7-2 record that includes a win over last year’s Football Championship Subdivision semi-finalist Northern Iowa – the very same Northern Iowa that lost to #10 Iowa because of two blocked field goals in the closing seconds.

The Jackrabbits are averaging 27.2 points per game and are allowing 13.9 ppg.  This is the first time this season that the Jackrabbits will be facing an FBS opponent though, so any statistics I might throw out here would be skewed by the lower level of competition they’ve faced. 

How can Minnesota win?

Believe it or not, just showing up isn’t good enough.  The Gopher defense hasn’t been stellar and the offense is spotty.  SDSU may not be the toughest competitor they’ve faced this year, but they’re good enough to shock Minnesota if they decide to take a nap through this one.

Throw early and throw often.  Bury the Jackrabbits.  The run will be there when it’s needed. 

How can South Dakota State win?

Throw everything in the defensive cupboard at Adam Weber.  Get him off balance and keep him that way.

Be conscious of the balance of the attack offensively.  Throw on first, run on third, then mix it up.  Do what they don’t expect you to do.  The Gopher defense isn’t really that strong.  Keep them guessing so they don’t get too comfortable. 

What will likely happen?

That’s all well and good, but it’s back to reality now.  Minnesota should have gotten a big wake up call in that loss to Illinois.  They’re hanging in the balance of bowl eligibility, they have the talent to be one of the better teams in the conference, and now they need to win.  They won’t take this SDSU team too lightly because they know they can’t afford to.

Weber will have a good day throwing and the defense will do enough against the smaller opponent to make it look easy.

Prediction?

Minnesota 42 – South Dakota State 20

Indiana at #18 Penn State Saturday, November 14^th, 12:00 (BTN)

Why would you want to watch this game?

The Nittany Lions have missed their only opportunities to pick up a signature win this year.  Now they’ve got to play for the bowl game.  The Rose Bowl dream is gone, so now Penn State is playing for the next best thing, whatever that is.  If it’s a BCS game, wonderful, but if it isn’t, they want to make sure they’re right behind the champion, in line for the Capital One, and they have to make it convincing enough that whoever falters between Iowa and Ohio State won’t leapfrog them into the best possible bowl.

Indiana needs a big win for their own bowl hopes.  At 4-6 they need to win out just to become eligible, and a win over someone like Penn State could sway some minds among bowl committees.

So, what’s the skinny?

Last week was the big one for Penn State.  They hosted Ohio State with a shot to bury the Buckeyes’ title hopes and reassert their own.  Though they didn’t yet know that Iowa would fall to Northwestern, a victory over Ohio State would have left them with just one conference loss, and in a race with the Hawkeyes for a trip to Pasadena. 

Daryll Clark completed just 12 of 28 attempts for 125 yards and an interception against the Buckeyes.  He also ran 11 times for just 20 yards (1.8 yards per carry), but did get a touchdown.  Evan Royster carried 13 times for just 36 yards (2.8 ypc) and was scoreless. That was pretty much all the offense Penn State could generate. 

Meanwhile, Ohio State scored in every quarter.  Terrelle Pryor tossed for two touchdowns and ran for another.  Penn State’s vaunted defense was unable to keep the Buckeyes from consistently marching downfield and putting points on the board.

And there went Penn State’s Rose Bowl hopes.

Indiana doesn’t possess a defense anywhere near as tough as Ohio State’s.  In fact, Ohio State has the top rated overall defense in the conference while Indiana is in dead last. 

Offensively, though, there may not be such a huge difference in quality, just in style.  The Buckeyes only have the 7^th rated total offense and Indiana’s is 9^th.  But if the 7^th rated offense can put 24 points on the board against Penn State, it’s not unthinkable that Indiana could put up nearly 20.

Ben Chappell and his crew are on a three game losing streak.  Two of those games came to #10 Iowa and #20 Wisconsin, but the other one came when unrated Northwestern came from way behind to knock off the Hoosiers. 

That’s been the norm for Indiana lately, actually.  The last three weeks, Indiana has jumped out to an early lead, only to have it stripped away.  Against Wisconsin, it was much earlier than the others, but it must have felt the same. 

Indiana’s defense seems to get rolling as early as the offense.  They held Northwestern scoreless in the first quarter of their game, and held them to just a safety in the third quarter too.  Against Iowa, they led 21-7 at the end of the first half.  Against Wisconsin…well…that was the exception, but they did score first.  They just haven’t been able to hold on down the stretch.  It’s as if they put their best stuff out there right away, then don’t know how to make adjustments down the stretch.

How can Penn State win?

I would be prepping the defense against a fast Hoosier start.  They’ll come out guns blazing (no pun intended in reference to the Pistol Offense), wanting to bury the Lions quickly and try to hold on.  If the defense can weather the initial storm (which they should), the Hoosiers will fizzle out and their defense will begin to soften considerably.

I would want to come out throwing against Indiana.  While their run defense isn’t great, their pass defense is awful.  I wouldn’t worry at all about the Lions’ defense’s ability to keep the game from turning into a shootout.  I would gear up the offense to strike fast and strike hard, and bury the Hoosiers by the end of the first half.

How can Indiana win?

I would work the linebackers half to death with side-to-side drills.  They’re going to be key to shutting down the lanes Clark will want to run through.  They’ll need to cover more ground against this team than against any other they’ve faced. 

Offensively, I would work on the short game.  I’d want to get everyone from the running backs to tight ends, to receivers involved in a pass game that works the short-to-mid range, and keeps the linebackers in close, but spreads out the safeties and corners.  I’d work with Ben Chappell on having a very quick release, getting the ball out to a receiver before the pocket has time to collapse or the linebackers have time to blitz.  Bring the linebackers and safeties in close, then go for the big play.

What will likely happen?

Penn State’s statistics may be slightly skewed because of a weaker schedule, but that doesn’t mean they’re not strong.  Their defense is plenty capable of keeping Indiana in check.  Their offense is plenty capable of moving the ball, especially against a very weak Hoosier D. 

Indiana may jump out to an early lead, but it won’t take long for Penn State to take firm control of this game and put Indiana away.

Prediction?

Penn State 31 – Indiana 17

Michigan at #20 Wisconsin Saturday, November 14^th, 12:00 (BTN)

Why would you want to watch this game?

Michigan needs another big win.  It’s been a long, long time since the Wolverines had a big win.  In fact, the only real quality win they’ve had was back in the second week when they knocked off Notre Dame, and it’s debatable just how good that win was.  They’re on a three game losing streak, they’re one game short of bowl eligibility, and both of their last games are against rated opponents.

Wisconsin is already bowl eligible and already assured that they’ll get an invitation somewhere.  The question is, where?  At 7-2, they’re firmly in the hunt for the Capital One bowl with an outside shot of a BCS bowl.  Every win gets them closer to January 2010.

So, what’s the skinny?

Where should we stand in regards to Michigan?  On one hand, they’re not looking very good right now.  They’ve lost three straight and five of their last six.  Their only win during that six game stretch was against Delaware State.  It’s been a month-and-a-half since anyone in Ann Arbor really had anything to celebrate. 

On the other hand, this team is two games better than they were all of last year, and still have two games to play.  They could still become eligible for a bowl game, and could technically still lock one in with seven wins.  The goal for the season, really, was just to show improvement over last season and give the fans hope that the team was moving in the right direction.  They’ve done that.  The fans may have forgotten it, thanks to the 4-0 start Michigan came out with, but they’ve done what they set out to do this season.

Michigan’s run offense is very good, averaging over 208 yards per game.  Their pass offense isn’t great, though, despite having Tate Forcier under center.  They’re 9^th in the conference with only 195.7 yards per game.  Their defense is mid-to-lower-level of the Big Ten.  They’re okay against the run, but dreadful against the pass. 

Wisconsin is quietly taking care of business.  After streaking out to a 5-0 start, Wisconsin dropped two straight to Ohio State and Iowa – both rated teams.  They all but fell off the map.  They’ve been ranked the last couple of weeks, but no one has really been singing their praises.  They’re not in the conference title discussion and definitely aren’t in any national title discussions.  Therefore, they’ve not really been in any discussions.

Both their offense and their defense is rated 4^th in the conference.  They’re 2^nd in rush offense, 8^th in the pass offense, 4^th in run defense, and 5^th in pass defense.  Overall, they’re a pretty balanced team and that’s translated directly to their record. 

The big knock against Wisconsin is their ability to beat the really tough opponents.  Ohio State and Iowa not only represent the only losses on Wisconsin’s schedule to date, but also the only ranked opponents on Wisconsin’s schedule to date.  What’s more, they didn’t just narrowly miss those games.  Ohio State beat them by 18 and Iowa beat them by 10.  They weren’t within a single score in either of those games. 

How can Michigan win?

What shouldn’t Michigan be working on?  Okay, they don’t need to work on the run game.  But everything else is in need of an overhaul.

I would be drilling my defense on the basics of tackling.  There’s no doubt that Wisconsin will run the ball and John Clay won’t go down easily.  If the Wolverines want any chance at all in this game, they’ll have to be very solid at the point of attack. 

Running the ball against Wisconsin won’t be easy, but I’d keep going with what’s worked so far.  The pass attack isn’t going to suddenly show up, especially against a Badger defense that’s been pretty fair against the pass.  So, I would want to use the pass sparingly.

How can Wisconsin win?

Throw the football!

Scott Tolzien is plenty capable and Michigan’s secondary is easy prey.  They can run all day, but why not run up the score as well as some stats?

What will likely happen?

Wisconsin is too powerful and too balanced for Michigan.  The Wolverines haven’t really beaten anybody with the exception of Notre Dame, and that was a long, long time ago.

Prediction?

Wisconsin 33 – Michigan 17

Michigan State at Purdue Saturday, November 14^th, 12:00 (ESPN/2/Classic)

Why would you want to watch this game?

This is virtually it for both of these teams as far as bowls go.  Purdue is 4-6; one more loss and they can forget a bowl game.  Michigan State is 5-5, but has Penn State for their last game.  It’s now or never for bowl eligibility.

So, what’s the skinny?

Purdue has turned it on of late, winning three of their last four including victories over Ohio State, Illinois, and Michigan.  Sandwiched in there is a 37-0 shutout at the hands of Wisconsin.  The Boilermakers have traded in a strong run game from the beginning of the season for a strong pass game.  Their defense is generally terrible, to say the least, but occasionally they put together a great performance, like against Ohio State.

Michigan State  has been hit or miss all year.  They’re coming off a nice win over Western Michigan, but that came on the heels of back-to-back losses to Iowa and Minnesota.  Their pass game is the best in the conference, and their run game isn’t so shabby either.  Defensively, they’re good against the run, but not so much against the pass.

How can Purdue win?

Pass, pass, pass, then pass some more.  Don’t give MSU time to breathe.

Defensively, they’ve got to get after Kirk Cousins and try to get him out of sync. 

How can Michigan State win?

Balance the attack.  They should be able to move the ball pretty much however they want to, as long as the don’t get too predictable. 

Get after Joey Elliott.  He’s a good quarterback, but prone to making as big mistakes as he does big plays.

What will likely happen?

Purdue’s playing pretty decent ball, but Ohio State was as much a fluke as anything, and neither Illinois nor Michigan are as deep as Michigan State. 

Prediction?

Michigan State 27 – Purdue 24

Northwestern at Illinois Saturday, November 14^th, 12:00 (ESPN/2/Classic)

Why would you want to watch this game?

The Wildcats are now bowl eligible, thanks to knocking off Iowa in Iowa City.  Now it’s all about locking in a good one.  Illinois has to win out just to earn eligibility.  This could be sha-na-na-na, hey-hey-hey, goood-byyyye.

So, what’s the skinny?

Northwestern looked all but out of bowl contention.  They were 5-4 with Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin left and no quality wins on their resume.  Then they knocked off, then #4, Iowa on the road.  Suddenly, they’re bowl eligible with a quality win and a chance to impress some bowl representatives.

The win over Iowa was nice.  Dan Persa did a masterful job of running the ball against the Hawkeyes and kept them off balance all game long.  Of course, it didn’t hurt that Corey Wooton also got that big fumble in the end zone for the score and knocked out Ricky Stanzi in the process.  The loss to Penn State the week before wasn’t so pretty, though.  Nor was the loss to Michigan State on October 17^th.

Illinois couldn’t beat anybody.  That is to say, they couldn’t beat anybody in the FBS.  Then, suddenly out of nowhere they decided to wake up and play football in 2009.  They’ve won their last two over Michigan and on the road at Minnesota to keep their bowl hopes alive.

Their wins over Michigan and Minnesota were impressive considering how they’d played through the first seven weeks.  Juice Williams is back to his old self and the Illini defense is doing just enough to give him a chance to win some games.

How can Northwestern win?

That depends on who plays quarterback.  If it’s Persa, then Northwestern needs to run him just like they did against Iowa.  Illinois’ run defense isn’t as good as the Hawkeyes’, and he looked pretty good.  If it’s Kafka, he can’t run well right now, so they have to come out passing.  Simmons isn’t really lighting up the night with his running, so that’s what it boils down to.  Persa equals run, Kafka equals pass.

Defensively, it’s still the same as it’s always been: get after Williams. 

How can Illinois win?

Get after the quarterback.  Both are injured and there is no real third option.  There’s no two ways about it, Northwestern is hurting and Illinois’ defense has to pounce.

What will likely happen?

Northwestern has all the heart to pull this off, and they’ve got their biggest win in ages to motivate them onward.  Illinois is riding their own high, and this is a perfect let down game for the Wildcats.

Prediction?

Illinois 30 – Northwestern 28

#10 Iowa at #11 Ohio State Saturday, November 14^th, 3:30 (ABC)

Why would you want to watch this game?

For all intents and purposes, this is for the Big Ten title.  Both teams have just one conference loss and both have gotten past Penn State.  Whoever wins this one is likely on their way to Pasadena come January.

So, what’s the skinny?

A few weeks ago, I would have given Iowa this game by ten points.  No kidding.  Say what you want about Iowa’s narrow victories over Northern Iowa, Arkansas State, Michigan State, Michigan; every game they’ve played at home.  They really don’t matter, except the loss to Northwestern, of course.  On the road, Iowa has been flawless.  Against the big teams, Iowa has played their best ball.  They beat Iowa State (5-5) 35-3.  They beat Arizona (6-2) 27-17.  They beat Penn State (8-2) 21-10.  They beat Wisconsin (7-2) 20-10.

Then, they lost Ricky Stanzi and all of that went out the window.  James Vandenberg may become a fantastic quarterback in due time.  However, he threw only three passes before taking the helm in the first half of their loss to Northwestern.  He needs at least a good year of experience before going up against Ohio State for the conference championship.  He got three quarters.

Terrelle Pryor was starting to take a ton of heat for poor performances.  The “dual-threat phenom” was far less than phenomenal in the Buckeyes’ loss to Purdue.  He didn’t look like much more against Wisconsin, even though the Buckeyes got the big win. 

Since the Purdue debacle, though, Pryor has looked like his old self, and Ohio State has rolled to three straight dominating victories, including a win over Penn State.

How can Iowa win?

Vandenberg needs to step up big time.  Stanzi wasn’t just the quarterback for Iowa, he was the leader – the consummate field general.  His passing was iffy, his decisions were poor, and he wasn’t that good at running with the ball.  But no one, and I do mean no one, was better at taking control of an offense than Ricky Stanzi.  Vandenberg needs to find a little of that, along with a lot better touch on the ball than he had last week.

The defense has to play inspired.  Pryor is stoppable, but the Buckeyes are rolling and there’s a conference championship on the line.  Iowa’s secondary is going to have to be awfully tough and fast.

Iowa’s going to have to find just a little more magic.

How can Ohio State win?

Get after Vandenberg.  He’s as green as green can be.  The offensive line is strong, but not as strong as Penn State’s.  The Iowa run game isn’t as terrible as made out to be, but it’s not tough enough to carry the offense.  Iowa will have to pass a lot, so rattle the youngster right away and walk away with the game.

Offensively, just don’t turn the ball over.  Pryor will pick up enough yards to keep the chains moving and eventually the Buckeyes will score.  Just don’t get sucked into tossing into a secondary that’s intercepted more passes than anyone in the conference. 

What will likely happen?

As much as I would like to say that this game will live up to the early billing, it won’t happen.  Iowa is hurting, and hurting badly.  They were injured coming into the season, but pieced together a unit capable of doing some special things.  Now, those pieces are torn apart too, and what’s left is a hodge-podge of talent that hasn’t had any real time together.  They’re in shambles and will begin to look like a very vanilla team that apparently got lucky a lot this year.

Ohio State is just hitting their stride and Iowa will barely be a ripple in the water.

Prediction?

Ohio State 28 – Iowa 6

Game of the week:  Iowa at Ohio State

This isn’t the game of the week because it’s going to be the best game.  It’s the game of the week because of what it represents.  As soon as Ohio State dispatches of Iowa, they can start packing their bags for Pasadena.

Player to watch:  Illinois QB Juice Williams

Against a mediocre Northwestern defense, Williams should have a stellar week and lead Illinois to another fabulous late-season win.

Upset Alert:  Purdue over Michigan State

Once again, I didn’t actually pick this upset, but with the way Purdue has been playing lately, you can’t count them out.  Michigan State hasn’t been playing that great this year and it’s more than possible that the Boilermakers could pull off another upset over a team with a better record.

Until next time, HAPPY BOWL HUNTING!