Game of the Week

South Florida @ Rutgers: Thursday, 12 November, 7:30pm, ESPN

The game time question for South Florida:

Are 10 wins still within reach or will conference play prove more difficult than expected?

Sub-question: Oh South Florida. What are we supposed to make of you?

Another 5-0 start by the Bulls had most of the country getting excited for conference play in the Big East, but back to back losses to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati left most analysts assuming South Florida would finish up 4th in the Big East. This assumption seemed solid with another “guaranteed” loss coming against West Virginia the next week. South Florida then surprised (i.e. confused) everyone with a blowout victory over the Mountaineers which once again has left everyone feeling conflicted.

South Florida and West Virginia seem to be in about the same place in their program. They both set the tone early in the season to make a run at a conference title and BCS bid, but somehow find a way to mess it up. Simply put, neither team can seal the deal. So back to the question at hand, are 10 wins still within reach? Of course, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. South Florida will have a solid chance of making a run if they get past Rutgers, but pulling off a victory in New Jersey as fall begins to set in is not a guarantee. As out ACC staff writer said once, “I’ll take South Florida all season at home, but never on the road once in November.” Seems like that rule is tough to argue with and will be put to the test this weekend. The key stat for South Florida will be Turnover Margin. While the Bulls have a +5 margin overall, the outcome of each game this season is directly related to who wins the turnover battle. This could be a problem with Rutgers leading the country in turnover margin.

The game time question for Rutgers:

When will the Scarlet Knights get some love for only having two losses?

The simple answer to this question would be “not this week” and likely not until they have 8 wins. Standing their way are South Florida and Louisville. The problems all started for Rutgers when just about every analyst picked the Scarlet Knights to be the dark horse contender for the conference championship, and it all fell apart after a week one loss to Cincinnati. Actually, I should say week one blow out by the Bearcats. It will take a solid performance by Rutgers against a competitive conference opponent before the analysts begin to forgive Rutgers for the let down. This week they found themselves with 5 votes in the AP poll. A win over the bulls would likely result in 5 to 10 more votes and it wouldn’t be until after a win over Louisville before Rutgers would slide into the Top 25.

If it’s a ranking Greg Schiano is looking for, then the play of RB Joe Martinek will be what makes it happen. It’s tough to see the trend when you try and take Martinek’s stats at face value, because he under performed in wins against FCS opponents, Howard and Texas Southern. Looking at just the games against FBS opponents, you can see that the fate of the Scarlet Knight rests with Martinek’s success on the ground. In the Big East, he ranks 5th in yards per game, and he averages just under 5 yards per carry. South Florida’s rushing defense is second from the bottom in the Big East allowing more than 130 yards per game. If Rutgers has any chance of an upset, Martinek will have to dominate on the ground.

When the Dust Settles:

A combination of a lack of defense against the run and turnovers in the cold rainy weather will allow Rutgers to come away with a big upset.

Prediction:

Rutgers 20 - South Florida 17

Upset Alerts

West Virginia @ Cincinnati: Friday, 13 November, 8:00pm, ESPN2

The game time question for West Virginia:

Will the banged up Mountaineers generate enough offense to keep up with Cincinnati?

I read a few articles this week which are calling for an impressive performance on defense in order for West Virginia to make this game competitive. While defense in any game is important, I’m not sure any team can realistically shut down WR Mardy Gilyard and QB Zach Collaros as well as the rest of the Bearcat offense. The only hope is to keep pace and cash in on every opportunity if Cincinnati turns the ball over, but turnovers by the Bearcats are few and far between. Last week against Co nnecticut, there wasn’t a single turnover by either team which is the main reason the Huskies weren’t able to come away with a huge upset. If I was the head coach at West Virginia, I’d be spending my time making sure my star quarterback’s head is in the right place and working hard to find a way for Noel Devine to get healed up. QB Jarrett Brown has struggled in his three post concussion starts and will need to have a game similar to his earlier performances if West Virginia wants to come away with the win.

The game time question for Cincinnati:

Should we be concerned with how many points the Bearcats allowed to UCONN?

Am I the only person in the country who is beginning to question the strength of the Cincinnati defense? The Bearcats squeaked by UCONN 47-45 in what unexpectedly turned out to be a thriller. Some are trying to write the game off as the “off game” every team is bound to have in a season, but the Huskies were able to walk up and down the field scoring at will. If there were a stat to point to here, I would be more likely to accept the “off game” excuse, but both teams played clean ball. Not a single turnover in the game, equal in 3rd down conversions, equal in red zone conversions, and both teams had solid quarterback protection. The Bearcats did lose the special teams battle in punt returns to a team which generally doesn’t perform well in that arena. The defense had no answer for the Huskies’ running game and allowed over 200 yards rushing in addition to the 200 yards of passing Connecticut put up. I think Cincinnati got lucky last weekend after a poor performance by the D and Special Teams. I guess the real question is whether or not the Huskies are going to be the wake up call for the Bearcats.

When the Dust Settles:

Call it a gut instinct. Call it the hair on my neck standing on end. Call it whatever you want, but I think this games going to end with West Virginia on top. West Virginia’s defense is significantly stronger than the Huskies’ and their offense is much more dangerous. While the turnover margins look lopsided in the season total category, the Mountaineers have a +3 margin in the second half of the season. I think one turnover will make the difference.

Prediction:

West Virginia 35 - Cincinnati 33

Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh: Saturday, 14 November, 8:00pm, ABC

The game time question for Notre Dame:

How will the Irish react with their backs against the wall?

Look, I hate the Irish just as much as the next guy, but they never cease to come up big when everyone starts to count them out. Last week’s loss to Navy is not indicative of a larger problem for the Irish. Had the Midshipmen’s head coach, Ken Niumatalolo, not challenged the fumble by Notre Dame on the first play of the game, Notre Dame would be walking around with one more in the win column. Had Golden Tate turned around on the pass play instead of blocking down field Ram Vela wouldn’t have intercepted the ball and Notre Dame would be walking around with one more in the win column. Give the Midshipmen credit. They played above their level and matched Notre Dame for 60 minutes, and with a bit of luck came away with the win.

If games were determined solely on who wants it more (and many times they actually are) then the Irish should pick up a win here. Their BCS bowl hopes have been dashed and Clausen may be out of the Heisman race, but with a 9-3 finish they could easily play on New Year’s Day. Charlie Weis is no doubt on the hot seat and will make sure his defense is ready to defend against the run.

The game time question for Pittsburgh:

Can the Panthers keep their focus this weekend playing out of conference?

If I told you the Panthers had games against Notre Dame, Cincinnati, and West Virginia, which team would you think the Panthers might be overlooking? I’d have to say it’s the Irish, especially after their defense was just run over by Navy. Pittsburgh might have the toughest remaining schedule in college football, and winning out will put them in a BCS bowl which is plenty of pressure for QB Bill Stull and freshman RB Dion Lewis. It’s as simple as this… I’ve been waiting patiently all year for the annual Panther collapse, and now is the best time to hold my breath and expect it.

When the Dust Settles:

Notre Dame comes away with a big win over Pittsburgh and then expects the entire country start talking about them being a BCS bowl again. Argghhhh! I hate the Irish!

Prediction:

Notre Dame 28 - Pittsburgh 20

Some grab a CO2 extinguisher, this guy is about to go critical:

Joe Martinek

RB Rutgers

With rain in the forecast for much of the rest of the day, Martinek will likely get as many touches against South Florida as he did during a rainy night at West Point. Against Army, he had 25 carries for 139 yards.

The Undercards

Syracuse @ Louisville

Another of my favorite match ups… the battle for the conference cellar. The Syracuse offense is struggling to get anything going against teams with any sense of a defense. The Louisville defense struggles in games against teams with any sense of an offense. This kind of scenario will make for an “exciting” game, but not one you really want to watch. The Cardinals will win this one at home, but not before the Orangemen give them a scare or two.

Prediction: Louisville 38 - Syracuse 24