Well, that cleared some things up…and muddied some more. What a difference four quarters can make to an entire conference outlook! Welcome back to the lead Ohio State, good-bye Iowa.

1. Iowa: The season may have just taken a horrible turn.

It’s one thing to lose a running back. It’s another to lose the second string running back and an offensive lineman. It’s something else to lose the only quarterback on your roster with any experience in the biggest game of the year against a team that’s beaten you two of the last three years.

There’s no two ways to put it, Iowa got beat by Northwestern. Fans can cry about missed calls, but really? As if Iowa hasn’t benefitted from a few blown calls this year? The fact is, Stanzi went down and the offense went bye-bye. The defense did a decent enough job, though it only got one turnover (which the Hawks weren’t able to do anything with), but with redshirt freshman, James Vandenberg under center, the offense simply lost its spark.

Vandenberg has a terrific arm, which he showed several times Saturday. The problem is, while he was showcasing that terrific strength, he was busy overthrowing his receivers by a good mile. He simply didn’t have the touch or the timing that Stanzi has, and it was evident immediately.

It’s not Vandenberg’s fault. He’d only tossed three passes all year. Other than drilling passes to wide open receivers in practice, Vandenberg hadn’t done much of anything all year long. He was merely along for the ride – learning from a veteran through all the ups and downs. He never got the benefit of gaining playing time in games that didn’t mean much, against opponents that with marginal talent. He was thrust head first into a game against a team that has had Iowa’s number the last few years, with an undefeated record and possible BCS championship on the line. Talk about pressure!

Northwestern didn’t do anything fantastic, they just played football and dared Iowa to come up with another come-from-behind win. I would wager good money that with Stanzi under center, the Hawkeyes would have delivered. The opportunities were there.

The bad news is, Coach Ferentz called Stanzi’s sprained ankle “severe” and hinted that the quarterback of lore (or will be) will probably be out for the Ohio State game next week and could be out for the Minnesota game to end the season. If Vandenberg doesn’t pull a 180 by next week, Iowa will have gone from undefeated to a three-loss team overnight.

2. Northwestern: That’s the big game they needed.

Make no mistakes about this: Northwestern both earned this win and got a gift.

They definitely played well. The offense kept Iowa’s defense on the field for a long time, and that’s always a key ingredient in a big win. Their defense also got the huge fumble recovery in the end zone for a touchdown that made all the difference and caused two other turnovers. Though they weren’t constantly in the Hawkeye backfield, they did disrupt the run game and took full advantage of the inexperienced Vandenberg when Stanzi went down. They took control of the momentum and never relinquished it.

On the other hand, the Wildcats should consider themselves somewhat lucky. Yes, they played a great game, and I don’t mean to take anything away from them. However, there were many, many plays that Ricky Stanzi would have made something happen, where Vandenberg squirmed around the backfield totally confused, and generally threw the ball away.

As long as Stanzi’s in the huddle, the Hawkeyes have a chance, and without him, they’re severely limited. They’d become accustomed to his style of leadership and his cool demeanor in the face of adversity. They didn’t seem to know what to do when that adversity was the loss of Stanzi himself. Don’t fool yourselves. If Stanzi hadn’t sprained his ankle, that game would have looked very, very different. He really does mean that much to the Hawkeye team.

Lastly, consider at least part of that win a gift from the refs. There were no fewer than three consecutive holding/pass interference plays that weren’t called during Iowa’s final drive. Had they all been called (or even a couple of them), Iowa would have moved into Northwestern territory and at least threatened to make the comeback. That the Wildcats got away with them only added to the frustration of the Hawkeyes and kept them securely on their own side of the field.

Still, that’s the kind of win that can catapult a team into bigger and better things. Much like Iowa’s win over Penn State around this time last year, a win over a top 5 team can give a program like Northwestern all the confidence it needs to put together a great win streak of its own.

3. Purdue: That was far too close.

Hey Boilermakers, did you not hear that Michigan wasn’t really that good this year? I’m sorry, maybe I forgot to mention that in my preview.

I did notice that many (okay all) of my cfb-campus brethren felt that Michigan would win this game, but I won’t hold that against them. Truth is, Purdue has been playing pretty decent football all year. Their record may not show it, but Purdue has been in the mix pretty much every game, except last week’s disappointment against Wisconsin.

They have a run game. They have a pass game. Their defense is “iffy”, but their offense keeps them in it. Michigan, on the other hand, has been in free fall ever since entering the truly competitive portion of their schedule.

I really thought Purdue would make it look easier than they did. Still, it’s just one more reason that their remaining opponents can’t take them so lightly. Throw the record book out the window. Purdue is playing like a 7-5 caliber team right now and that should make some people concerned.

4. Michigan: So, who has jumped off the RichRod Bandwagon now?

It’s really kind of sad to listen to the gnashing of teeth that’s going on over this sudden meltdown. It really should have been foreseen. Michigan was flying a little too high in the early part of the season. After starting 4-0, including a win over Notre Dame, suddenly everyone (including yours truly) was singing Michigan’s praises.

The lack of serious competition was of little concern. The Wolverines were beating the teams they did play convincingly. They got that late win over the Irish, and even though they lost to Michigan State, it was close, and Michigan State was supposed to be a conference title contender. That State isn’t nearly as good as they were supposed to be wasn’t yet determined. They almost knocked off Iowa, who was barely halfway into a 9-0 start to their season. Things looked good.

It was hard to determine just how good Michigan was.

Most of us had pointed out from the very beginning, though, that Michigan would be better than last year, but not back to being the Michigan of old. That 4-0 start, and those narrow losses, were a bit deceptive. Still, there are some Wolverine fans calling for Rich Rodriguez’s head. I’ve read comments that range everywhere from the idea that Rodriguez is a horrible coach that will run Michigan into the ground, to the feeling that Rodriguez’s style of football works – just not at Michigan.

It’s still early folks. No, not early in this year, but early in the rebuilding process. When you gut a team like he did at Michigan, and start from scratch, it’s going to take another year or two to really get things working the way you want.

Don’t jump off the bandwagon just yet. Michigan may be mid-pack in the conference this year, but that’s a major improvement over 3-9.

5. Illinois: It’s probably too little-too late for a bowl, but great effort!

After starting the season with a miserable 1-6 record, the Illini have won two straight and (technically) are still in the hunt for bowl eligibility. Granted, just getting bowl eligible doesn’t mean that a bowl committee will invite Illinois to play. Still, it’s impressive how Illinois went from playing horribly through the first two-thirds of the season, to suddenly playing pretty decent ball.

Juice Williams left their game against Minnesota fairly early with an injury to his left ankle. Jacob Charest stepped in and led the Illini to a 28-7 halftime lead. The Illini defense held Minnesota to just ten points through three quarters. Minnesota had an enormous 22 point fourth quarter, but it wasn’t enough.

As good as Illinois has suddenly looked lately, it’s not enough either. They’d have to win out the rest of the year, including a game against #5 Cincinnati. Even if they were to upset Cincy, it’s unlikely that it would cancel out blowout losses to Penn State and Ohio State, and missed opportunities against Purdue and Indiana – not the most convincing resume.

6. Minnesota: Now’s not the time to miss Decker.

Right after I praised Adam Weber for spreading the ball around and having a fantastic game without Eric Decker last week…he goes and does this. Completing just 14 of 31 passes against an Illinois defense that has been walked all over this season? What happened?

The offensive line didn’t do much to help Weber’s cause. Illinois had Weber on his back all day long with seven sacks. He picked up over 240 yards passing, along with a touchdown, but also had an interception, and needed a lot of help in the fourth quarter just to make it a game.

South Dakota State shouldn’t be much of a problem for the Gophers, but they have to travel to #10 Iowa to end the season. They’ll need to win both games to guarantee a bowl game. Now isn’t the time for Minnesota to fall apart, with a 13^th game hanging in the balance.

7. Wisconsin: These guys are the untold story of the Big Ten.

With Iowa’s improbable 9-0 start, Ohio State’s losses to USC and Purdue, and Illinois’ complete meltdown, Wisconsin’s great season has largely gone unnoticed. Early in the year they were one of the many topics of discussion, going 5-0. Their wins over Northern Illinois and Fresno State are looking better and better all the time, but in the early going it was the win over Michigan State that meant the most.

After getting blasted by Ohio State and losing convincingly to Iowa, the Badgers almost fell off the map. In two short weeks they were out of any BCS discussion and out of the conference title race. Since those two games, though, they’ve destroyed a Purdue team that knocked off Ohio State just a couple weeks before, and beat an Indiana team that has been much improved this year.

Though the nation has been distracted by the national title talks of Florida, Alabama, and Texas, arguing over whether Iowa deserved to be in the discussion or not, or debating the benefits of a playoff system yet again; Wisconsin has been quietly putting together an even better turnaround season than Michigan, Indiana, or Purdue. After a 7-6 record last year, they’re already at 7-2 with three very winnable games left in the season.

8. Indiana: Is so close to being a good team.

When you’re sitting at 4-6 with just two games left, and one of those games is #18 Penn State, it’s not easy to see any silver lining in the season. The lining for this team, though, is as bright as it can be.

After starting off 3-0, the Hoosiers dropped three straight, picked up a win over Illinois, then dropped three more. What’s easily overlooked, though, is how close this team is to being 7-3 right now, maybe even 8-2.

They lost to Michigan by just three points at a time when Michigan was playing their best ball of the year. They lost to Northwestern by just one point after allowing them to come from behind in the second half to steal the win. They dropped this last weekend to Wisconsin by a score of 31-28. Just in those three games alone, Indiana could have completely reversed their fortunes for the year and would be pretty well locked into a December bowl game. Add to that the fact that they led Iowa by ten points going into the fourth quarter. Had they managed to hold down the Hawkeyes for fifteen more minutes, this team could actually be 8-2 and talking January bowl games (especially with a victory over a top 5 team).

I know the argument that’s coming: but they didn’t win, and champions find ways to win. That’s true, and I’m not arguing that Indiana should be given some kind of special consideration because they’ve lost close games. But it is an indicator of what’s possible for this program and maybe even of the direction they’re heading for the future.

Keep in mind that last year, Iowa was 8-4 during the regular season, and few people outside of Iowa City paid them any mind. They lost all four games by a grand total of just 12 points, though. They picked up a big bowl win over South Carolina and used that to vault into the near-perfect season they’ve had this year.

If Indiana can figure out how to play consistently through four quarters and beat the teams they’re capable of beating, this team could come back next year and be an honest contender for a very nice bowl game.

9. Michigan State: It’s crunch time for the once (and future?) contenders.

The story for Michigan State this year is missed opportunities. They were pegged to be one of the challengers for the Big Ten title. That went out the window when they dropped three straight from week 2 though 5, including a loss to conference opponent Wisconsin.

Still, they turned around and knocked off Michigan, who had just knocked off Notre Dame. They followed that up with wins over Illinois and Northwestern and kept themselves in the hunt, should any of the big dogs falter. But then Iowa and Minnesota handed them back-to-back losses and suddenly Michigan State was just wondering about a bowl game at all, let alone the Rose Bowl.

Back at 5-5 after beating up on Western Michigan, the Spartans need only to beat Purdue next week to become bowl eligible. That may not be so easy though. Purdue has not only knocked off Ohio State, but gotten past Illinois and Michigan as well. They’re not a team that will roll over and play dead just because people expect them to. After that the Spartans have to host #18 Penn State – hardly a walk in the park.

One win gets them bowl eligible, but with losses to all of the top programs in the conference, it’ll likely take seven wins to secure an extra game. With only two games left, that means they have to win them both. It’s crunch time. One more misstep, and the Spartans will be home for Christmas.

10. Penn State: Unfortunately, this will be remembered as the season that got away.

Put things into perspective for a moment. Even after getting walloped by Ohio State last weekend, the Lions are 8-2 with two very winnable games left on the schedule. A January bowl game is well within the realm of probability, especially if Iowa falters over the last couple of weeks. In no way is this season a failure.

It’s not necessarily viewed that way by the Nittany Lion faithful, though. Given a shot at a revenge match against Iowa in their home confines, the Lions failed. Bye-bye national title hunt. Given a chance to repeat last year’s victory over Ohio State, this time in front of the home crowd, the Lions failed. Bye-bye conference title.

Their wins have been over weak-to-marginally-talented teams. Their only encounters with top rated teams were defeats. A hundred other teams in the country would be thrilled with a record like Penn State’s regardless who they beat to get there, but for many in Happy Valley, this season will likely be remembered as one that got away. With a relatively soft schedule, Penn State still couldn’t secure a conference or national title.

11. Ohio State: And just like that, they’re in the driver’s seat.

Had Iowa won last weekend, Ohio State would still be the second-best team in the conference and would not only need a win against the Hawkeyes this coming week, but potentially need them to stumble against Minnesota as well in order to get to the Rose Bowl. Had Penn State come into Columbus and gotten a win, the Buckeyes would be out of the conference title hunt altogether. Neither of those things happened, and now Ohio State is once again the team to beat on the road to Pasadena.

All the Buckeyes have to do is beat Iowa and they’re going to the Rose Bowl. That’s it. With two conference losses, Iowa will be out and the Buckeyes will be in. It likely wouldn’t even matter if Michigan were to pull the ultimate upset in the final week. In head-to-head matches among the top three, Ohio State would be the clear winner.

Lose to the Hawkeyes, though, and the Buckeyes will likely find their way to the Capital One Bowl. With three overall losses, there’s no way the Buckeyes would pick up an at-large BCS bowl bid.

It’s all in their hands, and with Ricky Stanzi injured, Iowa’s offense is even less effective than ever. It’s practically non-existent. As good as Iowa’s defense may be, it’s not going to keep the Buckeyes off the board for all four quarters. As good as Ohio State’s defense is, it would be tough for Iowa to win even under the best of circumstances.

Buckeye fans can practically start packing their bags for Pasadena. Ohio State is firmly in charge of their own destiny now and this week’s match against Iowa is suddenly a lot less thrilling than it was a week ago.