Well, this week of conference games is going to be much like any other in the MAC.  A few games are going to be very interesting and the rest of the match ups are just going to be ignored by everyone outside the conference.  The actual break down is a 50/50 split as we can ignore the Akron/Syracuse game since it is a non conference match up.  The quality “conference shaping” games this week will be Temple/Toledo, Kent State/Ohio, and Central Michigan/Bowling Green.  Of course that leaves Buffalo/Western Michigan, Northern Illinois/Miami(OH), and battle of the winless Eastern Michigan/Ball State. Here is what we can expect from the coming weekend.

Game of the Week

Central Michigan @ Bowling Green:  Saturday, 24 October, 12:00pm, ESPN PLUS

The game time question for Central Michigan: 

How will the team fair with out their primary running back?

Now I know what you are about to say, “Dan LeFevour is their primary runner!  He’s not hurt.”  That assessment is correct, LeFevour is the primary runner for Central Michigan, but their primary running back is  Sophomore Paris Cotton.  He’ll be sitting out Saturday’s game with a leg injury.  While his total yardage is not that impressive (163 yards) he is second in rushing attempts behind the scrambling quarterback.  I’m sure the coaching staff is concerned, given that they now have two of their ball carriers injured, but the Chippewas have a deep bench.  Leading rusher (and I’m still excluding LeFevour from this category as well as Antonio Brown who is actually a wide receiver) Carl Volny is health and leads runners in touchdowns (3).  It looks as though the play calling may change slightly with Cotton not there to carry the ball, but with the top three players in rushing yardage still available as well as bruiser FB Bryan Schroeder, Central Michigan should be just fine on offense.

Hmm, maybe I got the game time question wrong.  Maybe it should be something more along the lines of finding a way to defend the Tyler Sheehan passing attack.  While some may make an attempt to over hype the Bowling Green passing numbers, the cold hard facts are that Central Michigan just beat up on Western.  Sheehan leads an impressive air attack but his numbers are not much different than Tim Hiller.  Last weekend, the Chippewas gave up 410 yards through the air, but they managed to allow the Broncos only 23 points.  Sheehan will get his impressive throwing yards just as Hiller did, but passing yards don’t win games, points do. 

The game time question for Bowling Green:

Is there anyway for the defensive line to contain Dan LeFevour?

In the table above, I’ve highlighted the Central Michigan rushing yards per game and the Bowling Green defensive rushing yards allowed per game.  This game will come down to whether or not the Falcons can reduce Dan LeFevour’s effectiveness.  I say “reduce” because there isn’t really away to completely eliminate Dan LeFevour from a game.  He’s a tough competitor who has shown an ability to pass the ball (1549 yards, 14TDs, 4 INTs) and continues to blow away his running backs in rushing (395 yards, 9 TDs).  In fact when you look at the numbers LeFevour could easily throw for 20 TDs and rush for 20 TDs this season given the quality of the MAC’s defensive units.  Alright enough about LeFevour.  I think we all understand who versatile he is.  The issue at hand is can Bowling Green stop him.

The Falcons will have to rely on a veteran defensive front to step up big and contain LeFevour.  Leading the charge will be three senior linebackers (Sanderson, Schneider, Basler).  Each has over 40 total tackles on the season and rank in the top 5 on the team.  The concern will be the ability of the defensive line to make some plays and stop the Chippewas for a loss.  The top DL in tackles for the Falcons is junior Darius Smith who only has 19 total, 1.5 of them for a loss.  When you look at the tackle totals, what will jump out at you is the complete lack of defensive linemen in the top half of the team rankings.  When a team’s defensive backs and linebackers lead the team in tackles, you know opponents are reaching the second level for 5-10 yards a play. If this trend continues Saturday, the Falcons don’t stand a chance of beating Central Michigan.

The Intangible:

Well the field conditions are likely to be sloppy with the passing of a low pressure system on Saturday morning.  Throwing the ball may be a challenge as the trailing high pressure system brings in 16 mph winds.

When the Dust Settles:

Central Michigan will come out on top in this one which have them sitting pretty at 7-1, their best start since sometime during the Reagan administration.  Bowling Green will likely keep the game respectable as did Western Michigan, but in the end the Chippewas will prove to be too much.

Prediction:

Central Michigan  30  -  Bowling Green  21

Upset Alert

You know I reached this point much later in the season last year, but it seems that I have arrived here once again.  I am matching my write up to my official staff picks. Since I picked the favorites in each game to win, I won’t be writing an Upset Alert.  Feel free to call me lazy, but I just can’t bear the heartache of writing up an upset against my better judgment/staff pick and having it be right.  Truth is I’d rather just ignore the issue.

The guy with a rock no one is looking out for:

Nixon has 6 receptions for 199 yards and 2 TDs.  That’s 33 yards per reception and a score 33% of the time.  He is Temples big play wide receiver and is good for one big reception per game.

The Undercards

Ball State @ Eastern Michigan

Way more exciting than Akron/Syracuse.  The best part of any game which features two winless teams is that when the clock hits 0:00 one team will have their first win.  The problems for Eastern Michigan will continue on Saturday with their top running back, Dwayne Priest, questionable with a leg injury.  Most times you look for the team with the most positives to determine who to pick.  When you’re dealing with the winless, you look for the team with the least amount of negatives.  With pretty much every category offset, I’m looking at straight up scoring numbers and the ability to convert on 3rd down.

Prediction:  Ball State  27  -  Eastern Michigan  13

Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH)

Both teams are coming off losses last weekend.  NIU lost in a nail bitter to Toledo.  Miami (OH) further solid their new title as the MAC Whipping Boys.  NIU QB Chandler Harnish finished last week’s game with a mysterious leg injury which no one can seem to identify exactly when it happened.  He listed as questionable for tomorrow’s game at Miami, but the Northern Illinois program has the depth of talent to continue generating offense.  I suspect Harnish will make the start, but won’t have to play long as this game turns into a blow out.

Conference Stat of the Week:  +30 

This is the Turnover Margin Delta between NIU and Miami (OH) in the Huskies’ favor.

Prediction:  Northern Illinois  35  -  Miami (OH)  12

Kent State @ Ohio

Another of our interesting games, Kent State and Ohio are jockeying for the top position in the MAC East.  If Kent State can pull off the upset, and Temple loses to Toledo, we could see a two way tie between these two teams for first in the East.  Ohio scores more points, gets more turnovers, and converts on 3rd down 15% more often than Kent State.  Overcoming stats like this is a tall order.  The Bobcats should be 4-0 after this one, although I expect Kent State to have the lead until late in the 4th quarter.

Prediction:  Ohio  24  -  Kent State  20

Buffalo @ Western Michigan

Turner Gill is having a rough season up north with the Bulls.  The game time question for Buffalo last weekend dealt with adjusting to several injuries on defense and the loss of star running back James Starks.  This weekend the theme remains the same except added to the list is emerging star and back up running back Ike Nduka and Brandon Thermilus.  They represent more than 70% of the teams rushing yardage and 66% of the rushing TDs.  If Thermilus remains questionable and doesn’t make the start, Buffalo is guaranteed a loss.  The big picture is what should be worrying Gill.  It should be interesting to see if the Bulls can end up .500 in conference with so many injuries.  In this one, I’d give them the same odds of losing as I give Tim Hiller of throwing for 300+ yards.

Prediction:  Western Michigan  42  -  Buffalo  13

Temple @ Toledo

Alright, we’ve reached the last game of the conference.  Temple/Toledo.  You know I should have worked in some sort of healthcare theme into this write up considering every game seems to be full of high profile injuries.  News broke yesterday that Toledo QB Aaron Opelt was cleared to practice and he is listed as probable for Saturday’s game.  Looking at the stats, Temple struggles compared to Toledo on converting 3rd downs but the Toledo defense has shown itself to be pathetic.  They allow opponents a coin’s toss chance of converting on third downs and have no problem giving up points.  Fortunately, the Toledo offense can march down the field against most opponents and score to keep pace.  The Rockets have been over matched on paper several times this season, and I’d expect them to continue to win the close games.

Prediction:  Toledo  31  -  Temple  30

The Undercard of the Undercards

Akron @ Syracuse

Ugh.  Syracuse’s QB Greg Paulus has somehow forgotten how to throw the football in the past three games to include throwing 6 INTs in the most recent two.  Not surprising that Coach Marrone benched him and gave the backup a chance.  What’s surprising is that Marrone is now indirectly blaming the offensive line by “shaking” things up and moving a bunch of players around.  The unfortunate thing for Marrone is that this shake up will work against Akron just the same as if he did nothing, but he won’t see it that way until ‘Cuse plays another conference game.  A shame really.

Prediction:  Syracuse  27  -  Akron  20