SEC action this week offers six games and five in-conference contests. While Georgia sits idle, the other eleven teams from the SEC are preparing to commence hostilities.  Following the past two weeks, there are several questions that teams will be looking to answer this week.  Are Tennessee and Arkansas for real? Can Florida and Ole Miss find a consistent offense? I’m putting all of these questions aside for the moment, because I don’t think any of these teams are playing in the best SEC game this week.

Game of the Week:

Auburn (5-2, 2-2 SEC) at LSU (5-1, 3-1 SEC): 7:30 PM on Saturday 24 October (ESPN 2)

This game hasn’t meant as much in recent years since Auburn ceased to be a force in the SEC momentarily.  Gene Chizik’s new offense made a big impact in Auburn’s early season, but the “O” hasn’t looked as solid in their past three SEC games. LSU has been struggling to find an offense this season, but has a strong defensive unit which helped them win several close games so far this season. An LSU win ensures that the Bayou Bengals control their own destiny.  An Auburn win gives Alabama a nearly insurmountable lead in the SEC West and thoroughly mucks up the race for second place in the division.

Auburn’s offense seemed to be an unstoppable force earlier in the year, posting big numbers on the scoreboard and beating a very solid West Virginia team 41-30. I believe that coach Chizik and his offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn are on to something that will be effective for years to come in Auburn. Auburn currently stands second in the SEC in total offense and scoring offense. Last year, they ranked eighth and tenth respectively in those categories. While I love the new Auburn offense, it is hard to deny that the numbers have dropped dramatically in the past three games. The Tigers scored 26 in a win against Tennessee, 23 in a loss against Arkansas, and 14 in a losing effort against Kentucky. The back to back losses have sent a very promising season into a bit of a tail spin. Auburn was greatly exceeding expectations to date this year, now they’re just meeting them.

Recent offensive downturns aside, it has really been the defense that is letting Chizik down. Last year Auburn allowed an average of 18.0 points per game (5^th SEC) and 317.8 yards per game (6^th in SEC). This year’s defense isn’t faring as well, allowing 26.3 points per game (10^th in SEC) 367.6 yards per game (11^th in SEC). It is unusual to see Auburn in the bottom of the SEC with respect to defensive stats. Even in the last few “lean years” at Auburn, the defense played exceptionally well. Take a look at the stats below illustrating the slow demise of the Auburn defense.

LSU has had their issues as well, except that theirs have come on the offensive side of the ball. With all the weapons around Jordan Jefferson, it is wholly unacceptable for LSU to be the worst team in the SEC in total offense. On top of that, only Vanderbilt scores fewer points per game. LSU’s best offensive performance all year was their solid opening game against Washington, but you can’t peak in your first game. A game against an Auburn defense which has failed to perform up to standards might be just was Les Miles and his offense need. On the other hand, failure to move the ball against Auburn confirms the lack of any offensive ability for LSU.

The same LSU defense that held Florida to 13 points needs to show up and help the offense this weekend. Having been the defensive coordinator at Tennessee for many years, John Chavis is familiar with Auburn’s personnel, but not the new look of the offense. Chavis has the personnel to match up against Auburn on paper, but will that play out in the game. Auburn’s running game is more of a power attack compared to Florida’s speed game, and it will be interesting to see how LSU’s front seven respond to that. This holds particularly true in the fourth quarter, because the game should still be close at that point.

The game turns into a classic SEC defensive struggle, but LSU’s defense is better. Auburn is sent reeling with conference losses in three consecutive weeks. LSU maintains control of their destiny and moves a week closer to their game with Alabama.

Pick: Auburn 16, LSU 22

Player to Watch:

Greg McElroy, Quarterback, Alabama

Alabama’s offense hasn’t been convincing in their last two victories. It took a Mark Ingram led “wildcat” drive to finally put away South Carolina last week. The week before, ‘Bama was absolutely horrid in the red zone. McElroy struggled in these games, posting a completion percentage of 50% or less and throwing for less than 150 yards in both games. It won’t be any easier against Tennessee, who has a solid defense. Coached by NFL coaching legend Monte Kiffin, the Volunteer defense is allowing less than 20 points per game and ranks third in the SEC in total defense. This may be the best defensive unit that Alabama has faced all year. McElroy’s performance following his last two lackluster games is particularly vital.

Upset Alert:

Arkansas (3-3, 1-3 SEC) at Ole Miss (4-2, 1-2 SEC): 12:21PM on Saturday 24 October

Arkansas’s defense has picked it up in the last few weeks. Following conference games where they allowed 52 and 35 points to Georgia and Alabama, they held Auburn and Florida to 23 points apiece. Arkansas has been explosive on offense and is beginning to find a running game to complement Ryan Mallett’s arm. If the defense continues to play at a high level, Arkansas can hang with anyone in the SEC.

Mississippi’s struggles are well documented, and a strong performance against UAB doesn’t mean they’re ready for conference play. The fact that this game will be played in Oxford is the only reason that I think the Rebels come away with a victory. Arkansas is allowing nearly 150 yards per game to their opponents on the ground, and the Mississippi running game can wear you down. However, Houston Nutt’s team will fall if this game becomes a shootout like several of the other Arkansas games this season. Ole Miss comes out of this one with a close victory.

Pick: Arkansas 20, Ole Miss 24

Noteworthy Games:

Tennessee (3-3, 1-2 SEC) at Alabama (7-0, 4-0 SEC): 3:30PM on Saturday 24 October (CBS)

I really don’t this will be much of a game, but I said the exact same thing about Florida and Arkansas last week. While Mark Ingram has been spectacular, Greg McElroy and the Crimson Tide’s passing game has struggled in their past two SEC contests. Playing against Mississippi and South Carolina meant that Alabama was up against two solid defenses. I Think Tennessee’s defense is even better than the last two Nick Saban’s team has faced. If Tennessee can shut down the run, I don’t think McElroy can get the job done through the air.

Jonathan Crompton has a breakout day against Georgia, but I don’t see a similar performance in his future against the Tide. Although there are several injuries plaguing the Alabama defensive unit, they’re a deep and solid bunch. The bottom line is that even if Alabama’s offense has a bad game, Tennessee’s offense won’t score enough points to make Alabama worry. Alabama wins by at least ten points, probably more.

Pick: Tennessee 13, Alabama 27

Remaining SEC Games:

Vanderbilt at South Carolina Pick: Vandy 9, South Carolina 31 Unless the Gamecocks decide to take the week off, this should be an easy win for them. Vandy has struggled this year, but nothing quite as embarrassing as the overtime loss to Army two weeks ago. All that said, Vandy has made a habit of playing South Carolina close. They only lost by seven points last year. The margin of victory will be bigger this time around; the Gamecocks are a much improved team.

UL Monroe at Kentucky Pick: ULM 17, Kentucky 27 Kentucky would be wise not to overlook ULM. The Warhawks are 4-2 and looked good when I watched them play Arkansas State last week. Still, ULM is not a team that should be able to compete with Kentucky’s depth and athleticism for four quarters. Derrick Locke is running the ball well for the Wildcats, who played and excellent game last week and knocked off Auburn in the process. This team also hung in there against South Carolina, losing only when they couldn’t make good on a two point conversion. This game is close at the half, and Rich Brooks’ team wears down the Warhawks in the second half.

Florida at Mississippi State Pick: Florida 34, Mississippi State 17 This game has a plot line that is likely better than the game will turn out to be. Mississippi State’s new head coach Dan Mullen was the offensive coordinator at Florida until this year. While the Bulldogs are only 3-4, they have played well in losses to LSU, Georgia Tech, and Houston. I’m sure Urban Meyer wants to see Mullen succeed, but not at the expense of his Gators. All talk of “friendly competition” between the two head coaches will end at kickoff. Expect an SEC battle and the competition to be less than friendly on the field (but clean, there’s not bad blood between these teams). Mullen’s squad played a decent game, but is overmatched this time around.