With the race for the conference championship shaping up to be a thriller, only Rutgers, Syracuse, and Louisville find themselves out of the running only half way through the season.  It isn’t impossible for any of these teams to turn around a 0-2 or 0-3 start to conference play, but it is very, very unlikely with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh opening undefeated in the conference.

Cincinnati is the top team in the Big East and the favorite to win the title, but don’t count out a hungry Pittsburgh team who has so far found a way to avoid their usual mid season collapse.  Week 8 could begin to thin out the field and begin to answer the question of who should be atop the Big East.

Game of the Week

Connecticut @ West Virginia:  Saturday, 24 October, 12:00pm, ESPNU

The game time question for Connecticut: 

Will a team ignited with passion or a team stricken with grief show up on Saturday?

Imagine yourself the average college football fan.  You know the kind of fan that watches the games on Saturday, but doesn’t read every blog opinion about their favorite team during the week.  Now, I’m not levying judgment on normal fans (yes normal, as we are generally considered over the top) but I using the common fan to prove a point.  Now as I said, imagine you’re the average college football fan, and I hold up a picture in each hand of two teams about to play each other.  One is of Connecticut, and the other is of West Virginia.  Who do you see yourself picking to win? 

I’d argue that 99 out of 100 times you run this drill, the fan would answer West Virginia, and the fan 95 out of 100 times would be right.  But what about those 4 times out of 100 that they’re wrong?  Sure it’s only 4%, but in the art/science of game predictions you live for that 4%.

This weekend’s matchup between the Huskies and Mountaineers can easily fall into the 4%, and the Huskies are in complete control of the outcome.  I don’t want to be that writer that says a team should use the loss of a player as motivation, but the emotions of Jasper Howard’s untimely death will be there just the same.  As a player and a human being you have to decide to either let the emotion of the event destroy or use the emotion to motivate you toward your goals.  Something tells me Jazz would want to see a team ignited come out of the tunnel on game day, and I think the Huskies are going to come out swinging.  The question beyond the kickoff will be whether or not they pack enough punch to knock out the Mountaineers.

QB Cody Endres will be the player that will have to pick the team up and convince them they can compete with a fast West Virginia offense.  Endres completes 66.3% of his passes for 936 yards, 4 TDs, and 1 INT.  The problem has been the sacks the offensive line has given up (15 sacks total).  If the passing game is slow to start, the running back duo of Andre Dixon (616 yards, 7 TDs) and Jordan Todman (502 yards, 6 TDs) will have to take up the slack.  Connecticut has enough offensive punch to keep the game close, but it will be on the defense to slow down the Mountaineers spread offense which is likely more than they can handle.

The game time question for West Virginia:

How questionable is Jarrett Brown after the concussion last weekend?

QB Jarrett Brown is the key component of the West Virginia offense.  He hasn’t reached Pat White status, and likely never will, but the quarterback has over 1400 yards of total offense.  Here are his stats thus far:

68.6% completions, 1209 yards, 8 TDs, 5 INTs

50 carries, 209 yards, 1 TD

Brown has been cleared to practice this week, but the ultimate decision to start him will be made on Saturday.  He announced on Twitter that he doesn’t remember the hit, although I’m not really sure if that’s a good sign.  If he starts, the Huskies will have to focus on containing Brown on 1st down:

9.9 yards per pass attempt on first down

5.1 yards per rush attempt on first down

75%/25% split of passes/quarterback rushes on first down

He beats opponents on third down, completing 73.3% of his passes, but generally beats himself in the first down throwing 80% of his interceptions in these situations.

If Brown can’t go or has to leave the game early, the Mountaineers will look to Freshman QB Geno Smith who finished out the Marshall game last weekend.  Smith doesn’t have a long resume of stats but his performance against Marshall showed signs of hope for the backup quarterback.  He completed 71.4% of his passes for 147 yards and 1 TD.  If nothing else, Smith didn’t hurt West Virginia as he filled in for Brown and that is all they can ask for out of a backup.  If Smith has to start the Huskies will need to focus on the following:

-          Getting ahead early as Smith struggles when the Mountaineers trail (13 of 21, 1 TD, 1 INT).

-          Keeping the game between the 40 yard lines as Smith only completes 45.5% of his passes in the center of the field.

When the Dust Settles:

While I would like to see Connecticut pull of an emotionally driven upset to show the college football world they can withstand the toughest of life’s challenges, I don’t think Connecticut has the speed to keep up with West Virginia.  They stand a chance if Brown can’t play, but counting on a player to remain on the sidelines is not grounds for an upset pick.

Prediction:

West Virginia  38  -  Connecticut  21

Upset Alert

You know I reached this point much later in the season, but it seems that I have arrived here once again.  I am matching my write up to my official staff picks. Since I picked the favorites in each game to win, I won’t be writing an Upset Alert.  Feel free to call me lazy, but I just can’t bear the heartache of writing up an upset against my better judgment/staff pick and having it be right.  I’d rather just ignore the issue.

The guy with a rock no one is looking out for:

Everybody has written off Louisville this week against Cincinnati.  Froman comes into this game with a Jekyll and Hyde personality.  One week he shows he can compete at the collegiate level and the next he can’t hit the side of a barn.  If Cincinnati’s Tony Pike can’t go this weekend after his medical procedure on his non-throwing arm, it could leave the door open for the Cardinals to pull an upset.  That is if the right Adam Froman shows up on game day.

The Undercards

Rutgers @ Army 

This will be QB Nick Savage’s first road start of his career.  It will be a tough test not because of the opponent, but due to the weather.  Tomorrow night is expected to bring a cold rain into West Point which is challenging for any quarterback.  While I expect Army DL Josh McNary to keep Savage from becoming too comfortable in the pocket, I just don’t see Army beating a Rutgers team.  Maybe that’s the Navy alumnus speaking though.

Prediction:  Rutgers  28  -  Army  16

South Florida @ Pittsburgh

Probably anybody else’s Big East game of the week, this game will be the final test before I consider Pittsburgh a legitimate contender for the conference title.  While the South Florida defensive line boasts 9 sacks and over 20 TFL, the Panthers have consistently kept teams below their average sacks per game.

Prediction:  Pittsburgh  20  -  South Florida  17

Louisville @ Cincinnati

“The Battle for the Keg of Nails.”  Lame!  The only interesting story in this game will be whether Heisman candidate Tony is capable of playing with a hurt non throwing arm.  If he plays, Cincinnati will blow out Louisville.  If he doesn’t, Cincinnati still wins.  I guess it will interesting to see if there really is a keg of nails and how big it is.

Prediction:  Cincinnati  42  -  Louisville  20

The Undercard of the Undercards

Akron @ Syracuse

Ugh.  Syracuse’s QB Greg Paulus has somehow forgotten how to throw the football in the past three games to include throwing 6 INTs in the most recent two.  Not surprising that Coach Marrone benched him and gave the backup a chance.  What’s surprising is that Marrone is now indirectly blaming the offensive line by “shaking” things up and moving a bunch of players around.  The unfortunate thing for Marrone is that this shake up will work against Akron just the same as if he did nothing, but he won’t see it that way until ‘Cuse plays another conference game.  A shame really.

Prediction:  Syracuse  27  -  Akron  20