Most weeks I like to take this opportunity to talk over the Playoff, but due to the state of conference play, many of the teams atop their division are not ranked in the BCS rankings. The muddled state of several conferences has significantly increased the voliatility of the bracket.  So, we'll have to wait a few more weeks to really see things settle down.  So while Florida and Texas still maintain their positions in the #1 and #2 seeds and matchups between Boise State/TCU, Oregon/Pitt, Iowa/Alabama, and Cincinnati/USC are intriguing, I know the whole thing is going to change next week.

For right now, I think we should all focus in at the #4 spot of the BCS rankings.  Ranked only two positions away from a national championship bid, Boise State may as well be at the far end of the universe from their title dreams.  The saying "they'll be in the championship with a little help" doesn't seem to grasp the magnitude of the situation.  In fact, the Broncos will have to "get some help" from 7 teams to have any chance of moving up those last two spots. 

Here is what will have to happen for the leading non-BCS contender to get an invite to the big dance...

USC needs to not win the PAC-10 Conference Title.

The easiest way to have this happen is with a second loss to Oregon.  If the Trojans get past the Ducks then Boise State will have to root for Oregon State, Arizona State, and Arizona to pull off an upset.

Texas needs to lose some combination of two games or just lose the Big 12 Championship.

This is the tallest order out there.  It isn't completely out of the realm of possibility, but then again neither is the meltdown of the East Antarctic Ice Shelf due to Global Warming.  I'm not sure Oklahoma State or Kansas has what it takes to pull off an upset, but the assumption I'm making here is that a loss in the Big 12 Championship would be enough to knock them out of contention for the National Title.

Cincinnati needs to lose a game, preferably in conference, or fail to win the Big East Championship

This could get complicated as well.  With games against West Virginia, Connecticut, and Pittsburgh remaining Cincinnati could easily fall out of contention of the Big East title.  Problems arise if a Mountaineer team with only a loss to Auburn runs the table in the Big East.  Would an undefeated Boise State get in to the national championship over a one loss Big East champion?  I doubt it.

Iowa needs at least one loss, preferably to Ohio State

Again Boise State must count on a BCS conference to knock its champion out of contention for the big game.  Iowa can still win the conference with a loss to someone other than Ohio State, but the Buckeyes already have two overall losses which makes them the Broncos new favorite team in the Big Ten.  Would a two loss Big Ten champion get the nod over an undefeated Boise State team?  I would hope not.

TCU needs to lose to anyone.

While Boise State will sit stagnant for much of the rest of the season in the BCS rankings, TCU could still continue to climb with a schedule that continues to gain strength as the season progresses.  Tough to say where TCU could end up after running the table, but they need as much help as the Broncos if they want an invite to the big game.

Florida and Alabama need to win out the season

I know it is odd to say Boise State needs two teams to win out, but hang with me for a second.  If Florida and Alabama take perfect seasons ranked at #1 and #2 into the conference championship then I find it inconceivable for both of them to make it to the big game.  Now if either team loses between now and the conference championship, then a win by the underdog could cause a swap of ranking leaving Boise State out of the title game. 


Well there is the immense amount of "help" the Broncos will need in the last half of the season.  With 9 weeks remaining, I wouldn't count the Broncos out just yet.  Although, I forgot to mention the key to any title run by a non-BCS team....

Boise State must still win out, and let me leave you with this final thought...

What does the nation do with an undefeated Florida/Alabama, an undefeated Boise State, and a one loss Oregon team having one the PAC-10?

The Concept:

A hybrid system that incorporates the current bowl system with an expanded playoff. Playoff would take 4 weeks to complete utilizing the same amount of time as the current bowl system.

Background:

Anyone even remotely interested in college football knows there is a problem with the current way in which the nation crowns the NCAA football champion. While most major websites and analysts vote for a complete revamp of the BCS system, we believe that the pieces and parts of the solution have already been created waiting for someone to put them together. We have done that and what you see above is the result: A 10 team playoff which incorporates

- BCS Rankings

- Current BCS bowl layout

- BCS Conference Champions with At-Large Bids

- Maintains the tradition of bowl season

We think it is a solid assumption that the current BCS ranking system can identify the top 10 teams in the country, but no amount of human input and computer analysis can pinpoint the top two teams in the nation. It’s this belief that pointed us to a 10 team playoff.

Additional Bowl Locations Selection:

The four BCS Bowls (Fiesta, Orange, Sugar, and Rose) are on center stage and the current BCS Bowls plus National Championship format will be maintained. BCS Bowls will have rights to Semi-Final games and 2 of the 4 regional games.

The BCS Bowl which hosts the national championship, will be required to host a regional round game to facilitate preparations for the National Championship.

In order to fill the bracket, the BCS will host a "BCS Playoff Bowl Location Selection Show" where they will invite four non-BCS bowls to participate. These "smaller" bowls will be required to provided their payouts to the BCS payout pot in order to facilitate a graduated payout system which is addressed later.

New Bowl Schedule:

After rescheduling, only two bowls (not involved in the playoff) will have to move the date in which they play:

Hawaii Bowl will move from 24 DEC at 8:00pm to 23 DEC at 5:00pm

Emerald Bowl will move from 26 DEC at 8:00pm to 27 DEC at 5:00pm

GMAC Bowl would have the option of moving to 04 JAN at 8:00pm to accommodate a 3 day, bowl game free period before the National Championship

Team Selection:

6 BCS Conference Champions seeded 1 through 6 according to their BCS ranking. (AP Rank if too early in the season). If a BCS conference championship does not rank in the BCS rankings they will forfeit their guaranteed bid.

4 Non Conference Champions will be seeded 7-10 and will be required to play into the playoff. These will be the 4 highest ranked teams in the BCS rankings that did not win a BCS conference.

There is no limit to the number of teams any one conference can have in the playoff

Seed assignment is preset and permanent in the bracket. It cannot be altered to make for "better matchups" in the playoff.

Payout:

Payout will be graduated and will be determined by the round in which you lose and exit the playoff. A graduated system allows for the increased cost of sending teams to an increased number of games as well as paying for fan incentives to attend.

2009 Payout totals $186,260,000.00

Benefits and Drawbacks of the Playoff System:

As with any proposal for change, there must be benefits clearly defined and they must out weigh the drawbacks.

Benefits:

- National Champion will be decided on the field by the players

- Increased viewership of smaller, "early bowl season" bowls

- Increased BCS exposure adding Bowl Location Selection Show

- Current systems remain in place

- Favors BCS conferences while allowing for at-large bids

Drawbacks:

- Lengthened season

Solution: Eliminate weak early season game

- Reduction in number of automatic bowl bids for conferences

Non issue: Payout increased by graduated payout system