Courtesy OhioStateBuckeyes.com

Sooner or later, someone has to separate themselves as a clear leader in this conference.  Last week started the weeding process.  This week carries it on. 

Let’s break down the games.

Miami (OH) at Northwestern

Saturday, October 10^th, 12:00 (BTN)

Why would you want to watch this game?

Northwestern has struggled to get things rolling this year.  They’ve lost two of the last three and their only two wins are over FCS Towson and 1-4 Purdue.  They need to not only win, but get a big win to help turn the tide.             

Miami is winless thus far this season.  What’s worse, they haven’t even been close.  Nothing would turn their season around faster than having their first win of the season come against a Big Ten opponent.

So, what’s the skinny?

Scoring points hasn’t been Northwestern’s problem.  They average a nice 31.8 points per game.  Their lowest point total was 24 against Minnesota.  The problem is keeping other teams from scoring on them.

In their five games, Northwestern has allowed 131 points.  The lowest score they’ve allowed was 14 points by Towson.  They allowed Eastern Michigan to put up 24 points and Purdue to score 21.  Let’s not forget Syracuse, who hung 37 on them or Minnesota, who scored 35. 

Northwestern’s scoring defense is rated 76^th in the nation (tied with Mississippi State). 

The Wildcat defense has picked off seven passes, but has allowed nine passing touchdowns.  Their rushing defense has been a bit better, but has still allowed eight scores.

Miami has been much worse on both sides of the ball.  They were shut out of their first two games and have only broken into the twenties once, against Western Michigan, who scored 48 on them.  Their average margin of loss is a miserable 29.2.  The closest they’ve come to claiming victory was a ten point loss to Kent State whose only other win was an 18-0 win over Coastal Carolina. 

Miami’s scoring offense is dead last in the nation, averaging 11.6 points per game and their scoring defense is only one position better allowing an average of 40.8 points per game.

How can Miami win?

Northwestern’s defense isn’t as good as Cincinnati’s 12^th rated scoring defense and Miami managed to put some points on the board against them – not many, mind you, but some.  Still, it’s good enough considering Miami can’t stop Northwestern’s offense.

The Red Hawks need to get something going on offense.  Anything would work.  Zac Dysert is efficient enough, completing 62.2% of his passes, when he’s not busy throwing interceptions (6 versus just 3 touchdowns).  Daniel Raudabaugh is efficient enough as well (53.2%) but has also been too prone to tossing interceptions (5 versus 2 touchdowns).

Miami has to start by protecting the football.  They’re capable of moving the ball against Northwestern.  Anyone is.  The Wildcats, however, have intercepted seven passes this season and Miami has a real penchant for throwing picks.  They’ve got to either keep the ball on the ground, or make darn sure they target the guys in the red and white jerseys. 

Speaking of the ground game, Miami has four guys capable of carrying the ball.  If they keep rotating through them and keep them fresh, they’ll start getting production.

Defensively, Miami has to shut down Arby Fields.  He’s the one causing the most damage for the Wildcats on the ground.  Stephen Simmons has a better average, but Fields has more carries and more scores.  Take him out of the equation and force Northwestern to go a different direction. 

Taking away the deep ball would be a good idea too.  Mike Kafka completes over 70% of his passes and has only thrown three picks.  Forcing him to turn the ball over won’t be easy, so let him throw the short stuff that doesn’t eat up very many yards.  Just don’t let him start connecting on the medium-to-long routes that’ll keep moving the chains. 

How can Northwestern win?

Just go straight at Miami.  They can’t stop the pass and they can’t stop the run.  Even with a weak defense, Northwestern should be able to easily outscore the Red Hawks. 

There’s no real need to get deep into the how of it.  This Red Hawk defense really is awful.  Northwestern should be able to throw short, medium, and long.  Maybe not at will, but they can change it up and find success at nearly every range.  The run game won’t get positive gains every play, but they will more often than not.

The bottom line is, this is a game where Nothwestern can work on whatever they feel they need to.  They shouldn’t be seriously tested.

What will likely happen?

Again, not to sound too short but, if Northwestern doesn’t win, then they’ve got some very serious problems to address.  Chances are, for one bright, shining moment, Northwestern will look like the team they were supposed to be this year.

Prediction?

Northwestern 34 – Miami (OH) 20

Eastern Illinois at #14 Penn State

Saturday, October 10th, 12:00 (ESPN Classic)

Why would you want to watch this game?

Penn State looked pretty good against Illinois last week.  This week they get a slightly smaller version.  That’s no reason to turn the channel.  The Nittany Lions are improving game by game and they still have a lot to prove. 

Eastern Illinois is putting together a pretty decent season of their own with a 4-1 record.  Former Iowa quarterback Jake Christensen leads this crew with nearly 1100 passing yards and eleven touchdowns with only three interceptions.  I’m sure Penn State will be happy to welcome him back to Big Ten play.

So, what’s the skinny?

Okay, so Eastern Illinois is a FCS team.  This should automatically be a big victory for Penn State, right?  Yeah, that’s probably going to be the case.  Still, Eastern Illinois has that outside potential to be a shocker if Penn State isn’t ready.

So far, EIU hasn’t played anyone in the BCS ranks, but they’ve performed very well against the competition they have faced.  Jake Christensen has been very efficient with his passing (64.5%), the Panthers have three running backs averaging well over five yards per carry, and their defense is allowing only 14.2 points per game.  Most of those have come in their last two contests.

Penn State has been using their time wisely to work on the things that need addressed.  Most notably, they’re getting their offensive line time to gel.  They’ve taken some heat for having such a soft out-of-conference schedule, but this team needed it this year.  They had so many holes to fill from last season’s squad that they really didn’t need a lot of stiff competition right out of the gates. 

Daryll Clark is still a star, as is Evan Royster.  The defense is very, very good, and this team is starting to come together to be the team everyone thought they would be.  Sure, they still need some work on the line, and their young receivers can benefit from more experience, but they’re not a bad team – nowhere near it. 

How can Eastern Illinois win?

Punch Penn State in the teeth immediately and don’t let up.  Jake Christensen hasn’t just been efficient, he’s been effective.  The Panthers have three receivers with long receptions over 40 yards and two more with long balls over 30 yards.  Christensen’s arm strength and accuracy are not in question.  If he can catch the Penn State secondary asleep early in the game and drop a couple of big plays on them, the Panthers could get the Lions rolled back on their heels in a hurry.

The Panthers really have to throw everything they have at this tough Panther defense.  Use every running back in the stable and keep them fresh.  Throw the ball all around the field and keep the secondary guessing.  Pull out some trick plays if there are any in the bag.  Just don’t let up and don’t give up.  Penn State could come into this game thinking they can just play a nice little scrimmage and get a big win.  Show them early what a mistake that can be. 

Defensively, the Panthers have to do everything in their power to exploit that offensive line.  Use some fancy stunts and get the linebackers blitzing at odd intervals.  The main thing is, though, close the lanes for Royster to run through.  Clark likes to use those same lanes, so you can kill two birds with one stone.  If Penn State gets the running game going, the day will go south very quickly because then they can open up the kind of pass attack the Panthers really don’t want to have to face. 

How can Penn State win?

Work the ground game.  Royster is an all-star caliber back.  All he needs is some consistency from the line.  Use this opportunity for that line to grow and learn.  Penn State won’t get another opponent like this one the rest of the season. 

Wake the defense up for this game.  It would be pretty easy for a team like Penn State to just set themselves on cruise control and think they can coast through.  Maybe they can, but that’s not the point.  Penn State needs to not only win this game, they need to crush Eastern Illinois to climb in the ranks.  It’s really very sad that this is how the game has evolved, but they won’t change the system, so go with it.  Play the game and work on changing things in the off season.

What will likely happen?

Penn State will have a big day.  Things will sail smoothly and a lot of players will get valuable experience.

Prediction?

Penn State 38 – Eastern Illinois 16

Michigan State at Illinois

Saturday, October 10th, 12:00 (BTN)

Why would you want to watch this game?

For starters, things just got a little more interesting.  Ron Zook announced that star quarterback Juice Williams will be benched for this game.  That opens up a whole new box of questions.  The biggest one, obviously, is: “how will Illinois perform without Williams?” 

Michigan State got a huge win over Michigan last week.  Now they have to start stringing together big wins.  Throughout the early part of the season, the Spartans have looked nothing like a team that could seriously challenge for a conference title.  What about now?  Maybe that win was the springboard they needed to launch them back into contention.  Then again, maybe it was just a case of emotion winning out over talent. 

This was potentially an interesting game even before the Williams saga.  Now it’s worth a definite look-see.

So, what’s the skinny?

For better or worse, Juice Williams has been the star of the Illinois team for about as long as he’s worn a team jersey.  He’s an incredibly talented athlete who can throw the ball with the best of them, or tuck it down and run with the best of them. 

Truthfully, he’s not a problem.  I should say, he shouldn’t be a problem.  The dilemma is, he’s become so accustomed to being a one-man show in Illinois, that he’s not sure how to relinquish the reigns a little and let someone else in on the offensive production. 

Arrelious Benn is a very talented receiver, yet Williams seems almost afraid to throw to him.  In fact, Williams looks reluctant to throw to anyone on a regular basis.  He displays his distrust in his receivers nearly every time he opts to tuck the ball and run when there’s pressure rather than scrambling to buy time for the receivers to get open. 

He displays equal distrust in his running backs every time he decides to keep the ball himself rather than ditching it off on the option play.  He’s a great athlete.  The problem is, he knows it.

Now, coming in to take his place will be junior quarterback Eddie McGee.  McGee has had precious little time to really develop as a quarterback, but he’s not been awful.  Attempting only 29 passes, he’s completed 19 of them (65.5%).  He’s tossed for one touchdown in those 29 attempts, but has also thrown a couple of interceptions. 

Illinois has struggled mightily all year.  Their only win in four games came against Illinois State.  The rest of the time, they’ve been throttled.  Granted, “the rest of the time”, they’ve played ranked opponents (#24 Missouri, #9 Ohio State, and #14 Penn State).  Still, there’s no good reason for such poor performances, even against that level of competition. 

The Illini offense has only averaged 17.8 points per game while their opponents have averaged 29.8.  It’s not fair to put it all on the offense, though.  Obviously, the defense has had its share of troubles.  They were unable to slow down Missouri, giving up 37 points.  Ohio State shut them out 30-0, and Penn State racked up 35 points to Illinois’ 17.  They’ve been beaten by the run, beaten by the pass, and beaten in the turnover margin. 

Michigan State is coming off of a huge overtime upset win over Michigan in front of their home crowd.  We could possibly look back in December and see that game as the moment the Spartans re-emerged as a Big Ten power.  On the other hand, we could look back at that game as being the one shining moment in an otherwise blah season. 

The Spartans haven’t played quite as poorly as it might appear by just looking at their record.  They did lose to Central Michigan 29-27, but we really shouldn’t judge them quite so harshly on that.  The only team Central has lost to so far is Arizona, and the only team Arizona has lost to is #12 Iowa.  CMU isn’t all that bad.  Still, it’s not a team you would generally expect Michigan State to lose to. 

After that game, they took Notre Dame down the wire and lost it in the closing minutes 33-30.  That was on the road.  They were on the road again at Wisconsin for the next game and played tough in that one also, dropping 38-30.  Then they got Michigan and got the win they were looking for.  Notre Dame may not be Florida, but they’re not bad and, so far, Wisconsin is looking pretty darn good.  Losing to those teams on the road isn’t reason to jump on the Spartan band wagon, but it’s no reason to jump off of it either. 

The pass game hasn’t been bad, averaging over 300 yards per game and scoring 13 touchdowns.  They could do without the six interceptions, no doubt, but at least their in the positive in the touchdown-to-interception category. 

The run game also hasn’t been awful, averaging 133.6 yards per game with six touchdowns. 

The Spartan rushing defense hasn’t been too bad, giving up only two touchdowns and an average of fewer than 100 yards per game (96.4).  The pass defense, though, has been an outright sin.  They’re allowing 244 yards per game and have given up 12 touchdowns while getting only three interceptions.  That phase alone drops Michigan States total defense to a national ranking of 49^th, and their scoring defense to a ranking of 64^th. 

Not helping matters, Michigan State has a turnover margin of -4.  They’ve given the ball away nine times, while only taking it back five. 

How can Illinois win?

The Illini need to take the time to get their offense settled.  Undoubtedly, things will be a little shaky at first until McGee gains his confidence. 

That being said, don’t wait too long to get McGee slinging the ball downfield.  As I said earlier, Michigan State’s pass defense is it’s weakest link by far.  Let McGee do his thing and do it often.  It’s Illinois’ best chance of getting a big win against an opponent that’s not in the FCS. 

Jason Ford and Daniel Dufrene have had decent enough success against tougher defenses than this one.  They should have enough success to keep the defense from playing too deep against the pass.  They should also have enough success to get things started so McGee can ease his way into the starting role. 

We don’t know how long he’ll be Illinois’ starter, or even if he’ll play the whole game.  Hopefully, Ron Zook will give him enough of an opportunity to prove himself before pulling the plug.

Defensively, Illinois needs to worry most about Larry Caper.  The young man may not have the greatest stats in the league, but he’s proven himself near the goal line.  The run that beat Michigan was a classic example of Caper’s drive, determination, and raw ability.  The Illini need to shut him down, take him (and all of his rushing brethren) out of the equation and force Kirk Cousin to beat them with his arm.  Cousins has been good, but the more he has to throw, the more opportunities they’ll have to add to the Spartan turnover woes.

How can Michigan State win?

For starters, put as much pressure as you can on Eddie McGee.  He’s not had a ton of experience to help guide him through this game.  He’s only passed for one touchdown and thrown two interceptions.  Get pressure on him and he may turn out to be even worse than Williams at turning over the football.  At the very least, it should be less difficult to get him rattled than it would be with Juice at the helm.

Michigan State won’t find it easy to bottle up Illinois’ running backs, but they’re capable of keeping them in check.  They can’t get sucked into dropping too many people back to protect the pass unless they’re getting great penetration up front.  McGee is nearly as prone to throwing picks as Williams is, so they’re still better off shutting down the run and working on the pass game than they are throwing everything they have at the pass and ultimately getting burnt by both. 

Offensively, Michigan State needs to flex their passing muscles.  The Spartan pass attack is rated 14^th nationally, versus Illinois’ 84^th rated pass defense.  Kirk Cousins should have little trouble finding lanes to throw through.  He just has to protect his passes better than he’s done to date.  Illinois’ offense is just potent enough to cause real trouble if he makes too many mistakes.

Luckily for Michigan State, Illinois’ run defense is even worse than their pass defense (rated 103^rd).  The Spartans should be able to pick and choose how they want to attack the Illini defense.

What will likely happen?

Eddie McGee will throw a new wrinkle into Michigan State’s plans.  He’s more accurate than Williams and will likely be more comfortable throwing than Williams is.  No doubt he’ll attack Michigan State’s pass defense and find moderate success, at least.  The run game will struggle a little though.

That’s where Michigan State will get the edge.  Illinois’ defense is just terrible, no matter how you cut it.  Michigan State’s offense, however, isn’t bad at all.  They’ve got a lot of areas they can improve on, but they’re plenty solid enough to move the ball against Illinois.

Don’t be surprised if the score gets fairly high.  There should be some fireworks in this one, but ultimately Michigan State will be able to limit Illinois’ run game while Illinois won’t be able to stop Michigan State from doing anything.

Prediction?

Michigan State 41 – Illinois 27

Purdue at Minnesota

Saturday, October 10th, 12:00 (ESPN2)

Why would you want to watch this game?

Purdue isn’t as bad as advertised.  No, I’m not kidding.  Would you believe that their scoring offense ranks higher than Georgia Tech, Boston College, or (gulp) Ohio State?  It’s true.  Purdue can put points on the board.  What’s more, though their record is dismal at 1-4, they’ve been right there in every loss, including missing by only two points on the road against #13 Oregon and losing by just three points to Notre Dame. 

Minnesota could be caught in the “perfect storm”.  They’re coming off a tough loss to a good Wisconsin team and have road dates at #14 Penn State and #9 Ohio State in the next two weeks.  Sandwiched in between is this Purdue team that looks pretty weak on the surface, but could be good enough to throw the Golden Gophers for a loop. 

So, what’s the skinny?

Purdue is one of those teams you just can’t quite figure out.  They’ve got the tools to do something pretty special, but they’re coming from such a dark place, they can’t seem to dig their way out of the hole they’ve been anguishing in. 

The Boilermaker run game has been solid, averaging 153.6 yards per game and scoring nine times on the ground.  Their pass attack has been even better putting up 258.2 yards per game and scoring 11 touchdowns. 

Purdue ran for 170 yards against Oregon.  They added 167 against Notre Dame.  If they can put up those numbers against those teams, they can definitely do it against Minnesota’s 96^th rated rush defense. 

Purdue’s passing offense hasn’t been bad either.  They average 258.2 yards per game and have scored 11 touchdowns.  They’ve also given up 7 interceptions.  Joey Elliott is completing 62% of his passes.  Against Oregon’s 20^th rated pass defense, he was able to put 266 yards up with a touchdown, but did throw two interceptions. 

Purdue’s defense is the problem.  Rated 85^th against the run and 90^th against the pass, Purdue hasn’t been able to consistently stop anybody from doing pretty much whatever they wanted. 

Minnesota’s rush attack has been one of the worst in the nation (107^th).  Averaging just 96 yards per game, Minnesota hasn’t been able to get the wheels churning. 

The Golden Gophers’ pass game has been a bit better.  They’re averaging 231.4 yards per game and have scored seven passing touchdowns while giving up six interceptions.  No, they’re not great, but they’re not bad either.  There are a lot of teams doing worse, let’s put it that way.

Minnesota’s defense allows an average of 24.6 points per game.  The run defense is a bit of a problem, allowing 174.6 yards per game and has given up ten touchdowns.  The pass defense allows just over 200 yards per game (202), and has allowed five additional scores.  They’ve only picked off three passes, though.

Minnesota has beaten decent teams in Syracuse and Northwestern.  They beat a pretty good team in Air Force.  They couldn’t get it done against their truly good opponents, California and Wisconsin. 

They’re still putting far too much focus on the Adam Weber/Eric Decker combination.  It’s a great combination, but against stiffer defenses, it’s just not enough.  They’ve got to find a ground game to help take pressure off of Weber, and they really need to get some of their other receivers involved more.  Troy Stoudermire is a good receiver.  So are about three other guys.  So, why is Eric Decker catching roughly four times as many passes as they are? 

How can Purdue win?

The Boilermakers need to basically put this game in Ralph Bolden’s hands.  Joey Elliott can burn Minnesota and he won’t have to worry as much about being picked off against them as he will against other opponents in the conference.  He doesn’t have to, though.  The Gophers will give up yards to Bolden & Company and he’ll wear down the defense plus take minutes off the clock.  Let the run game pound away and chew up yardage.  Occasionally Joey can loose the cannon and find success, but the runners can carry the day.

Defensively, Purdue needs to do something positive.  Shutting down the rush shouldn’t be too terribly tough, so the Boilermakers need to focus on it and make sure they can at least get that taken care of.  Their safeties need to play back and let the line and backers handle the run game.  Keep them back in two-deep coverage to give assistance to whoever is covering Decker and to protect against the homerun ball.  Even if they give up yards, they’ve got to do everything they can to stop the scores. 

How can Minnesota win?

Obviously the ground game stinks.  If they can’t rely on it, then there’s little choice but to rely on the pass attack.  The Gophers really need to start spreading the ball around better, though.  There’s no doubt that Eric Decker is one very talented receiver, and I realize as well as anyone the relationship that’s built between a quarterback and his favorite target.  However, this is the time to start working hard on finding other options.  When Minnesota faces Penn State and Ohio State in a couple of weeks, they’re not going to have Decker available so often.  Those defenses are absolutely capable of putting double coverage on him and still be able to cover the gaps.  What will they do then?  Now’s the time to figure out who else can shine.

Defensively, Minnesota has to figure out how to stop the run game without sacrificing their pass defense.  Ralph Bolden’s averaging 5.58 yards per carry, but he’s not the only horse in the stables.  Minnesota will have to account for them all.  They just can’t turn their back on Joey Elliott in the process. 

What will likely happen?

I really want to pick the upset here.  I really, really do.  Purdue has played seemingly above their ability a few times this year.  The thing is, I don’t think it was above their ability.  They can throw the ball.  Maybe not well, but they can throw it.  They can run the ball and they can do it well.  Minnesota is coming off a tough game and have a couple more right in front of them.  Purdue is exactly the kind of team that can sneak up and burn them while they’re busy thinking ahead. 

I just can’t do it though.  Purdue can’t seem to put teams away.  Their defense is just too terrible.  They’ll have a lot of difficulty keeping Eric Decker under wraps and I do think some new faces will emerge.  It’ll be a close one, but Minnesota will pull it out in the end.

Prediction?

Minnesota 37 – Purdue 33

Indiana at Virginia

Saturday, October 10th, 3:30 (ESPN360.com)

Why would you want to watch this game?

Virginia had a perfectly terrible season going, until they found a way to knock off North Carolina last weekend.  The Cavaliers had lost all of their first three games to William & Mary, #10 TCU, and at Southern Miss.  They finally got one in the win column and are looking to pick up another win over a beatable, but not so light Hoosier team.

Indiana started out hot with three straight wins to open the season.  Then they had to face Michigan and #9 Ohio State on consecutive weeks.  They held tough against Michigan, losing by only three, but were manhandled by the Buckeyes.  In front of them now is a beatable team that could help them get one game closer to bowl eligibility.  On the other hand, in front of them is a team that could turn the tables and make bowl eligibility seem a million miles away.

So, what’s the skinny?

Virginia started right out of the gates with an embarrassing 26-14 loss to William & Mary.  They managed an almost duplicate performance against #10 TCU, dropping 30-14.  They started putting something together in that game, though, and came back tougher against a pretty good Southern Miss team, dropping a close one 37-34.  They’ve had good moments, but they have been overshadowed by all the negatives.

Their pass offense is atrocious.  As a team, they’re averaging a dismal 179.3 yards per game through the air and have thrown only four touchdowns to five interceptions.  Their rush attack hasn’t been a lot better, averaging only 93 yards per game with five rushing touchdowns.

The rush defense is just so-so, allowing 145.25 yards per game and has given up five touchdowns.  Their pass defense, however, is statistically one of the best in the nation.  They’ve allowed just 156.5 yards per game and have given up only three passing touchdowns while taking away four interceptions.

Despite a decent defense, Virginia is allowing an average of 24 points per game while their offense struggles to scrounge up 19.5 points.  When your offense is that far behind the curve, your defense has to be spectacular to make up for it and Virginia’s is merely “good”. 

Indiana can’t complain too much about their offensive production.  Ohio State held them to just 14 points, but that’s better than the goose egg Illinois laid against the Buckeyes.  In fact, it’s just four points short of what #7 USC managed against OSU.  The Hoosiers also put 33 points on the board in a heartbreaking loss to Michigan. 

Indiana’s run game is still just okay, averaging 131 yards per game and scoring eight rushing touchdowns.  Their pass offense puts up decent yards, averaging 233.2 yards per game, but has only scored five touchdowns versus six interceptions given up.

The Hoosier run defense hasn’t been too bad, giving up 119.2 yards per game and six touchdowns.  The pass defense is allowing an average of 218.2 yards per game and has given up eight touchdowns while taking away six interceptions. 

The yardage allowed by Indiana isn’t really a big deal.  They’re rated around mid-pack both on the ground and through the air.  Their red zone defense is among the best in the nation (tied for 3^rd).  Yet, they give up 24.4 points per game.  How does that happen?  Generally, it’s an indicator that they’re prone to giving up some big plays.

How can Virginia win?

There’s no particular weakness on the Indiana defense to target specifically, so Virginia can go with their strength and milk it for all it’s worth.  The problem with that is:  what exactly is their strength.  Their run game isn’t good and neither is their pass game. 

Virginia has to come out trying to generate a ground game.  Get started with the one option least likely to have turnovers involved.  When they do pass, they need to keep it fairly short, working the outside and keeping it simple.  Around midfield, though, Virginia should test the Indiana defense deep a few times.  Once in the red zone they’re tough, so try to beat them from a little farther out.

Defensively, Virginia needs to keep the plays in front of them.  If they have to, they can drop their safeties back in zone.  Whatever it takes, they can’t let Indiana’s pass attack get behind them.  The Cavs need this game to move at a slow pace so their offense has time to keep up.  Don’t give up the big plays.  Make Indiana earn their keep.

How can Indiana win?

Indiana should come right out of the gates attacking the Cavalier defense.  Ben Chappell should have a pretty good day, so get him started early.  Back the defense up and then let Darius Willis and Demetrius McCray go to town.  They could start the other way around and still be fine, but why not bury Virginia quickly and take the pressure off?

Defensively, the Hoosiers need to shut down the run game.  Force QB Jameel Sewel to throw the ball more than he’d like and wait for the mistakes.  Virginia is struggling at every facet of their offense, but the pass game is most dangerous.  Leave them little choice but to go to the air where Indiana can create turnovers.

What will likely happen?

Keep in mind that statistics are just numbers.  They indicate potential weaknesses or strengths, but they don’t tell the whole story.  Unfortunately for Virginia, they really do tell a lot of the story.  They can’t get anything positive going for them.  The win over North Carolina was surprising, but I’m not sold that it’s a real indicator that they’re returning to some previous successful form. 

Indiana’s defense isn’t spectacular by any stretch, but it’s not bad.  Their red zone defense is very good.  Their offense has tons of potential and is steadily improving week-by-week. 

Virginia could make this interesting, but not for more than two or three quarters.  Down the stretch, Indiana’s more balanced attack will win out.

Prediction?

Indiana 27 – Virginia 13

Wisconsin at #9 Ohio State

Saturday, October 10th, 3:30 (ABC Regional)

Why would you want to watch this game?

Quite a few people were saying during the off season that Wisconsin might return this year to their previous form; that they might look like the conference and/or national contender that they were supposed to be last year.  Here they are.  They’re 5-0, only one win away from bowl eligibility and one big win away from national recognition.

Ohio State is riding a three game winning streak into the Top 10.  Two of those wins were shutouts over Toledo and Illinois.  This is the team you have to beat if you want a shot at the Big Ten title.

Is Wisconsin really that good or are they benefitting from light competition to drive up their record?

So, what’s the skinny?

It’s really something of a shame that Wisconsin isn’t rated.  Their competition hasn’t been that bad.  Northern Illinois is 3-2, but their two losses are to Idaho (who is 4-1), and of course, the Badgers.  Fresno State has a losing record, but nearly all of their games have been against ranked opponents, and they’ve not had terrible showings (20-28 against #8 Cincinnati on the road).  Wolford may be weak, but Wisconsin won handily, as would be expected.  Michigan State isn’t having a great start either, but they have not been dominated by anyone and just knocked off a ranked Michigan team.  Traveling to Minnesota isn’t an easy trip this year, yet the Badgers came out on top there too.  Yet, despite beating all of these teams, the Badgers are still on the outside looking in.

The Badger run offense has been very strong.  They’re averaging 217.2 yards per game and have 13 rushing touchdowns.  John Clay has been the big force, running for 582 yards already and averaging 5.2 yards per carry. 

The pass attack isn’t great, averaging 216 yards per game, but they have scored nine touchdowns and have only given up three interceptions.  Scott Tolzien has completed 65.6% of his passes.  He’s not lighting up the sky with footballs, but he doesn’t have to with the rush attack they have.  Tolzien does what he needs to do, when he needs to do it, plain and simple.

Wisconsin’s defense is…okay.  Their rush defense is 7^th in the conference, allowing 128 yards per game and giving up five rushing touchdowns.  The pass defense is 8^th in the conference, allowing 235 yards per game and nine touchdowns.  The Badgers have picked off eight passes, though. 

In a nutshell, Wisconsin is a running team that doesn’t do anything exceptionally well, but does it well enough to support the run game and give them a chance to win every game they play.

Ohio State has been doing everything people expected them to do.  They allowed a team or two to stay a little too close for comfort (Navy).  They lost their first shot at burying the BCS jinx (USC), and they’ve soundly throttled everyone else (Toledo, Illinois, and Indiana).

The Buckeye rush offense is 3^rd best in the conference, averaging 188.6 yards per game and has scored eight times.  Daniel Herron has punched the ball into the end zone more times (5), but Terrelle Pryor has put up the most yards (298), and Brandon Saine has the best average (6.0 ypc).  Thanks to a tough offensive line, just about anyone can run for Ohio State.  No disrespect to their runners, I’m just sayin’ is all. 

The pass offense has been weak.  Actually, they’re last in the conference in passing offense, averaging just 180.6 yards per game but have scored eight passing touchdowns.  Terrelle Pryor has also tossed five interceptions.  It’s not really mattered though because…

Ohio State’s defense has been outstanding.  The Buckeyes are top in the conference in total defense.  Against the run, they allow just 83.4 yards per game and have allowed four touchdowns.  Against the pass they’ve been equally disciplined, allowing just 169.2 yards per game and giving up four touchdowns while intercepting eight passes.

It’s hard to say that the Buckeyes are having any problems, but if there are any, it’s not with the defense.

How can Wisconsin win?

They’re going to have to get fired up on defense.  Ohio State’s offense isn’t exactly the most explosive in the nation, but it’s not that bad either.  Wisconsin’s offense is going to struggle to move the ball, so the defense is going to have to come up big to keep them in it. 

Specifically, the Badgers need to shut down the run game.  That won’t be easy with a couple of decent running backs plus Terrelle Pryor all hitting them from different angles with different styles.  If they can lock Pryor in the pocket and limit the production of the other runners, they’ll stand a much better chance of pulling the upset.  If they allow the Buckeyes to run roughshod over them, though, the game will get out of hand quickly.

Offensively, the Badgers just need to keep doing what they’ve been doing – running the ball.  Nothing wears down a defense faster than having to spend all day chasing down running backs.  It won’t be easy, that’s for sure.  Ohio State is very good at stopping the run (10^th in the nation), but if Wisconsin can keep pounding at them, they’ll eventually start getting the production they need. 

Scott Tolzien needs to be careful with the ball as well.  The Buckeyes are pretty decent at picking off passes and Wisconsin can’t afford to give up turnovers. 

How can Ohio State win?

Close down the Badger run game.  It’s the bulk of their offense.  Shut it down and you’ve pretty well shut down the Badgers.  Yes, Scott Tolzien is an efficient quarterback, and there’s no indication that he couldn’t maintain that efficiency with more throwing opportunities, but it’s not what Wisconsin wants to do.  They want to run the ball and chew up yards on the ground, so take that away from them. 

Offensively, Ohio State needs to focus on limiting turnovers.  Wisconsin is tied with Iowa for having the best turnover margin in the conference.  They’ve taken the ball away from their competitors 15 times; seven fumbles and eight interceptions.  Ohio State may be the heavy favorite, but an upset is just a fumble or an interception away. 

They should pound the ball right back at Wisconsin.  The Buckeyes have so many different options running the ball that they should be able to keep the Badger defense guessing.

What will likely happen?

This will be what we affectionately call a “slobberknocker”.  There will be a few big passes and some really exciting plays, but the biggest part of this game will happen with short bursts on the ground.  The team with better play at the line will be the one that comes out on top of this one.

Wisconsin will keep it close and beat on Ohio State all game long.  Down the stretch, though, the Badger defense is just not strong enough to keep pace with Ohio State’s offense while the Buckeyes will likely shut the Badgers down.  There’s little chance of Ohio State taking Wisconsin too lightly.

Prediction?

Ohio State 27 – Wisconsin 20

Michigan at #12 Iowa

Saturday, October 10th, 8:05 (ABC)

Why would you want to watch this game?

A week ago, this would have been a battle between two ranked teams.  Michigan’s loss to Michigan State knocked them out of the Top 25, but don’t let that make you think they’re done for the year.  They’ll be looking to prove that last week was an aberration against an in-state rival on the road.

Iowa has been somewhat maligned for their unconvincing wins over Northern Iowa and Arkansas State.  Those games have taken quite a bit away from the fact that they also beat Penn State on the road, defeated an Arizona team that’s now 3-1, and annihilated an Iowa State team that fell just one point short of being 4-1.  The Hawks have beaten decent teams.  They’ve just struggled against the teams they should have wiped out. 

This is going to be a battle between two pretty good teams looking to stake a claim at the conference title.

So, what’s the skinny?

Michigan had a dream season going.  They’re rebuilding from that atrocious 3-9 campaign they had last year and were 4-0 going into their rivalry game against a struggling Spartan team.  Then, for the first time this year, they weren’t able to pull out the close win.  They came from behind to force overtime, but couldn’t finish it off.

The big story out of Ann Arbor has obviously been the play of Tate Forcier.  He’s led an offense that’s second in the Big Ten in scoring.  That’s a huge contrast to last season where Michigan was dead last in conference play.  The Wolverines now have the second best rushing offense in the conference, averaging 197.8 yards per game and scoring 12 rushing touchdowns.

Their pass offense is a lot less impressive statistically, averaging just 190.2 yards per game, but has scored nine times through the air.  As a team they’ve tossed six interceptions, but Forcier is only responsible for three of them.  He’s completed nearly 60% of his passes, he just doesn’t throw as often as you’d expect for the attention he’s gotten. 

Defensively, the Wolverines haven’t been very impressive against the run.  They’re allowing 153 yards per game and have given up nine touchdowns.  Against the pass they’re not a lot better, allowing 239 yards per game, but have given up just four passing touchdowns while intercepting six passes. 

Iowa’s offense has suffered terribly so far this season.  Some of it has to do with injuries to TE Tony Moeaki, who looked so good early in the year, and OL Bryan Bulaga.  It’s not really fair to write off their woes to injuries, though.  Iowa still has plenty of weapons and they haven’t used them well.

Running the ball, the Hawkeyes have been decent, averaging 139.6 yards per game and picking up six rushing touchdowns.  Passing, they’ve been….okay…averaging 222.6 yards per game and tossing eight touchdowns.  They’ve also given up seven interceptions, though – tied for worst in the conference with Purdue. 

The Iowa defense has been the key to rolling out their 5-0 start. 

Against the run, Iowa allows 122.2 yards per game, but have not given up a single rushing touchdown.  Against the pass, they give up just 180.4 yards per game and have allowed five passing touchdowns, but have taken away 10 interceptions.  They allow just 5.4 yards per pass play – best in the conference.  You can chip away at them, but they don’t allow many big plays. 

The Hawkeyes are tied for best in the conference with a +5 turnover margin.  Besides the ten interceptions, they’ve forced 8 fumbles (also tied for best in the conference with Ohio State), and have recovered four of them. 

The Hawkeye defense is one of the most confusing anywhere around.  They don’t do anything fancy or strange, they just play straight forward defense and do it very well.  What’s confusing, though, is that they’ll let you think you’ve got an opening for a pass, then they’ll shut the door while the ball’s in the air.  They’ll let you think you’re moving the ball well, then they slam the door in your face.  What they won’t do, is let you put a lot of points on the board against them.  They allow just 13.4 points per game.

How can Michigan win?

Michigan doesn’t pass the ball as much as you’d think.  That’s a good thing this game.  Iowa’s run defense isn’t as stiff as it was last year, but their pass defense is even better than a year ago.  Michigan needs to keep the ball on the ground and work the edges.  Iowa’s defense is surprisingly quick, but Michigan can pound out two or three yards consistently and make their third down situations short rather than long.  When they do pass, they should keep it short.  When they get into the red zone, Michigan may as well forget about running the ball in.  For whatever reason, Iowa’s pass defense gets a little confused when they get down to short range. 

Defensively, Michigan needs to get penetration into the Iowa backfield and disrupt the run game.  Iowa has two very good runners in Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher, but they do their best work when they’re allowed to hit the line with a head of steam.  Catch them before they can get moving and wrap them up. 

The Wolverine secondary should be on their toes as well.  This could be a huge day for them.  QB Ricky Stanzi has thrown seven interceptions.  He tends to throw behind his receivers and under-throws the longer routes.  If Michigan keeps their safeties in two-deep coverage, they can likely pick up a couple of interceptions and keep their offense on the field.

How can Iowa win?

Luckily for Iowa, this isn’t the toughest defense they’ve faced, nor the toughest their going to face.  Keep in mind, though, that it was the defense and special teams that beat Penn State, not the offense.  They should be able to generate a little something offensively, but the defense will have to come up big again.

Iowa needs to pound the ball at Michigan’s defense.  The offensive line hasn’t been outstanding, but they’ve been good enough at creating holes for the running backs to work through.  Let the defense do their thing and just keep pounding away at Michigan.  On the other hand, Stanzi had a couple of really nice passes last week against Arkansas State early in the game.  He should try it again and see if he can get the Hawkeyes up early.  They need to be ahead by 14 or more going into the fourth quarter.  Tate has a way of brining the Wolverines back late in the game.

Defensively, Iowa needs to bottle up Brandon Minor.  He’s a good running back that will test their run defense, but they’ve got to get tough at the point of attack and take him out of the equation.  Tate Forcier can run the ball too, but Iowa really wants to get him into a position where he’s throwing the ball more.  Get him throwing and Iowa is almost assured another interception.  Their pass defense is just that good. 

What will likely happen?

Iowa will move the ball against Michigan on the ground, but the pass game will find limited success and will likely give up a couple of turnovers.  The defense, however, will keep them right in the thick of things and will probably facilitate an early Hawkeye lead. 

That’s where the problem for Iowa will occur.  Going into the fourth, if they’re not thoroughly dominating the Wolverines, they’ll get burnt.  Forcier will catch fire like he usually does and Iowa will slip into their usual late-game slumber. 

As the game draws to a close, Hawkeye fans will feel the sting of Stanzi’s turnovers and the defense will give up one too many plays. 

Look for the upset.

Prediction?

Michigan 24 – Iowa 20

Game of the Week

Wisconsin at #9 Ohio State

This one’s in the Horseshoe between two good teams.  Just how good is Wisconsin, though?  We don’t really know.  They’re good enough to come into this game undefeated and good enough to give the Buckeyes their most serious test since USC.  It should be hard-hitting and exciting right up until the end.

Player to Watch

Purdue QB Joey Elliott

He’s had the Boilermakers on the verge of some big wins, but hasn’t gotten them through.  In front of him is a weak Minnesota pass defense.  It should be interesting to see if he can lead his team to an important conference victory.

Upset Alert

Michigan over #12 Iowa

For starters, Iowa is overrated.  Their offense is a joke and they’re getting by because of a defense that’s forcing big turnovers and stopping opponents dead in their tracks.  They played like a team too full of themselves against Arkansas State.  Michigan wants and needs this win more than Iowa does.  Look for Michigan to set off Iowa’s mid-season slide.