Okay, so now that the excitement has worn off from last weekend’s big games, let’s look ahead to the upcoming weekend and what magic lays in wait for us.

There are more great games on the docket.  Michigan State hosts #22 Michigan in a game that has more than its share of bad blood.  Undefeated Wisconsin travels to Minnesota to take on a Golden Gopher team that’s 3-1 and looking better with each passing week.  Illinois comes off another terrible showing to welcome #5 Penn State, who’s sure to have a little motivation for winning this game, and #13 Iowa tries not to allow the letdown bug bite them against Arkansas State in Iowa City.  Even 1-3 Purdue facing off against 2-2 Northwestern should have enough drama to be an interesting match.  Then there’s Indiana, who came oh-so-close to taking down Michigan, facing off now against #9 Ohio State and hoping to get the big upset they so narrowly missed last week.

Let’s break ‘em all down and see why things really are just getting good in the Big Ten.

#13 Iowa vs Arkansas State  Saturday, October 3rd, 12:00  (ESPN2)

Why would you want to watch this game?

Admit it, you wrote off Iowa after the first week and now are wondering just how good this team is.  They used a great defense and bad weather to take down a top five opponent last week – on the road, no less.  Don’t forget, though, that they needed consecutive blocked field goals to knock off FCS Northern Iowa.  So, who is this team?  They’re ranked #13 thanks to the big win over Penn State, but are they really a Top 15 team, or have they just been given an early Halloween gift by the pollsters?

Arkansas State faces their second ranked team in three weeks.  It hasn’t been the best of roads for the Indians, going 1-2 to this point.  They had a great 61-0 win over Mississippi Valley to open the season, but have dropped to #23 Nebraska and Troy since.  Do they have what it takes to shock a Hawkeye team that may be flying just a little too high right now?

So, what’s the skinny?

Iowa has been steadily improving every time they take the field – at least on defense.  While they were slow and stodgy against Northern Iowa opening the season, they took big leaps against Iowa State, improved even more against Arizona, and were downright scary against Penn State.   

While Adrian Clayborn may have gotten the most attention for blocking a punt, then returning it for a touchdown, along with terrorizing Daryll Clark all game.  He wasn’t the only shining star on that defense, though.  Karl Klug assisted in a sack and (possibly more importantly) batted a pass that ended up being intercepted by LB Pat Angerer.  Speaking of Angerer, he not only had that interception, but had 14 tackles against the Nittany Lions, and forced the big fumble by Royster that pretty well sealed the win for the Hawkeyes. 

On the season, Iowa’s defense has allowed only 171.5 yards per game passing.  The secondary has been a nightmare for their opponents, intercepting nine passes and only allowing three touchdowns. 

Their rushing defense has given up an average of 132.5 yards per game but has not allowed a single rushing touchdown this year. 

If there’s a weakness on this defense, it’s that they don’t get enough sacks (just six through four games).

Offensively, Iowa has been far less than exciting. 

The Hawkeyes have an average of 143.5 yards per game on the ground and has six rushing touchdowns.  Redshirt freshman Adam Robinson and true freshman Brandon Wegher have been a great rushing duo, each finding success when the other can’t. 

The passing game has been more difficult.  Ricky Stanzi has averaged fewer than 200 yards per game through the air and has thrown as many interceptions as he has touchdowns (five each).

As a unit, Iowa averages 347.8 yards per game and 25 points per game. 

Arkansas State is a run-heavy offense as well.  The Indians average over 190 yards per game on the ground versus 168 yards per game through the air.  They have just two passing touchdowns while amassing eleven scores on the ground.

Senior QB Corey Leonard hasn’t been terrible.  He’s completed over 54% of his passes and hasn’t thrown an interception.  He just hasn’t been used for much other than a means to back off the defense so the running backs have room to move.

Senior Reggie Arnold has been the main ball carrier.  He’s averaging a very nice 6.34 yards per carry and has found the end zone seven times.  Ten players have carried the ball, however, and as a team the Indians average nearly five yards per carry.

While the Indians’ run game is the strength of their offense, the defending the run is also their strength on the other side of the ball.  Arkansas State has allowed an average of 100 yards per game on the ground and have given up just two rushing touchdowns.  Conversely, they have allowed 256.7 yards per game through the air and have given up six touchdowns with no interceptions. 

This game will be strength on strength.  Iowa’s rush attack against Arkansas State’s rush defense and the Indians’ rush attack against the Hawkeye’s run defense.  The wildcard will be if Iowa can mount a consistent pass attack.  Arkansas State would be well advised not to try the aerial assault with Iowa’s pass defense waiting to turn the ball back to their offense.

Turnovers have been a big part of all of Iowa’s games this year and the Hawkeyes have a turnover margin of +5, against Arkansas State’s margin, which is dead even (5 fumbles gained and 5 fumbles lost).

How can Arkansas State win?

The biggest thing the Indians will have to do is protect the football at every turn.  Iowa has forced 12 turnovers in just four games.  The Hawkeyes have been fantastic at getting to errant throws, creating them, or both.  If the Indian ball carriers can keep control of the football, they can at least minimize the number of times the Hawkeyes touch it.

Running the ball won’t be easy against a very tough Iowa defense, but that’s Arkansas State’s strength and it’s what they need to stick with.  Don’t get sucked into a pass game that will find limited success and will only give that Hawkeye secondary opportunity to take the ball away.

If and when the Indians need to pass the ball, they need to make the throws short.  Go for just enough yardage to move the chains and not a yard more.  The Hawkeyes can be spread out and they’ve been burned a couple of times on deep routes, but those times were few and very far between.  Only go the long route if it’s truly available.  Don’t get sucked in to thinking that this unit is too slow to keep up.  Arkansas State needs to do only what’s needed to keep moving the chains forward.

Defensively, Arkansas State needs to stop the run.  It’s not easy because the Hawkeyes use two different backs intermittently.  While they’re both talented in their own right, neither of them are Shonn Greene type runners.  Clog the line and stop the run.  Put the offense in Ricky Stanzi’s hands where it’s far less stable than it is in the hands of the ball carriers.

How can Iowa win?

Forget about last week.  Sure, Hawkeye fans will be talking about it right up until Iowa plays Penn State next time around, but it’s done and over.  Right at this moment it means exactly bupkis.  If Iowa comes out thinking they’ve got this in the bag just because they beat Penn State, they’ll get a very rude awakening.  Let it go.

It’s pretty well a given that the outcome of the game will be almost entirely in the hands of the Hawkeye defense.  If they continue what they’ve started, this unit should shut down the Indian ground attack and force them to the air where Iowa’s secondary can really wreak havoc. 

The offense has a lot to figure out and now’s the time to do it.  Get Ricky Stanzi throwing the football.  Yes, I know the ground game is Iowa’s strength, but the run defense is also Arkansas State’s strength.  Their pass defense is less stout and should give Stanzi the best opportunity he’ll have in a while to work on his rhythm and decision making.  Even if he turns it over, the defense will likely hand it back to him, so get him working now while he can.  Hopefully he’ll figure some things out before he has to face Michigan in two weeks.

What will likely happen?

Iowa’s offense may be struggling, but their defense is among the best in the nation.  Arkansas State will find it difficult to run the ball and nearly impossible to pass it.  Whatever problems the Hawkeye offense will encounter, the defense will nullify them.  Sooner or later, the Hawkeye offense will get some things working and put some points on the board. 

If not, Adrian Clayborn can always just block punts and return them for touchdowns.  That’ll work too.

Prediction?

Iowa 31 – Arkansas State 10

Michigan State vs. #22 Michigan  Saturday, October 3^rd, 12:00  (BTN)

Why would you want to watch this game?

Traditionally, Michigan State has been considered Michigan’s “little brother”.  They just don’t get the consistent success that Michigan has seen over the decades.  Last year, however, Michigan State got a big win over the Wolverines…and proceeded to rub it in every chance they got. 

As quickly as fortune smiled on the Spartans last year, though, it’s turned its face back to Michigan.  The Wolverines are ranked in the Top 25 again, with an undefeated record, while Michigan State is 1-3, on a three game losing streak, and needs something really positive to turn their season around. 

So, what’s the skinny?

Michigan State was widely considered one of the top three teams in the Big Ten coming into the season, even though they were missing superstar running back Javon Ringer and experienced quarterback Brian Hoyer.  Thus far, they’ve looked like anything but a conference contender, losing to Central Michigan, at Notre Dame and at Wisconsin in consecutive weeks. 

Keep in mind that their losses have been by a grand total of thirteen points.  That’s just over four points per loss.  It’s not as if they’ve been thoroughly dominated.  They just haven’t found ways to win the close ones and that will kill an otherwise decent season.

It’s not hard to put a finger on exactly what’s causing the Spartans so much trouble.  They average 117.75 yards per game running, which is a bit short of the 130+ yards per game that they averaged a year ago.  That’s one area the Spartans would love to improve.

They’re passing for more than 320 yards per game and have 13 passing touchdowns to only four interceptions thrown.  Last year the Spartans passed for only 213 yards per game, relying instead on Javon Ringer to carry the offensive load.

Where one area has diminished, the other has picked up.  They’re not exactly inept offensively, put it that way. 

Defensively, the Spartans are giving up only 113 yards per game on the ground and just fewer than 250 yards per game through the air.  They’ve allowed 10 passing touchdowns, though and two more on the ground.  That’s area #2 the Spartans need to improve.

Put it into perspective.  Central Michigan managed 29 points against the Spartans.  Notre Dame put up 33 points and Wisconsin scored 38.  While the Spartans are getting production from their offense, they’re allowing far too much to happen defensively.  The averages aren’t out of the norm, but they’re giving up the plays that count the most: the ones that score points. 

For Michigan, things couldn’t look better.  They were supposed to be better than last year, but not by leaps and bounds.  Here they are, going into their fifth game and they’re undefeated with a win over a ranked opponent.  No, that opponent isn’t ranked anymore, but that’s not the point.  Michigan wasn’t supposed to be this good yet.

The Wolverines have had four straight home games and have taken good advantage of the friendly confines.  They annihilated Western Michigan 31-7, upended Notre Dame 38-34, blasted Eastern Michigan 45-17, and outlasted a fired up Indiana team 36-33.

Tate Forcier has been the talk of the town and deservedly so.  His stats aren’t fantastic, throwing for only 167.8 yards per game, but has seven touchdowns with only two interceptions.  His running isn’t bad with 127 yards rushing and two more touchdowns. 

Michigan has a powerful run game, averaging more than 240 yards per game with 12 rushing touchdowns. There are four different ball carriers averaging over five yards per carry (with regular work), led by Carlos Brown who’s averaging an amazing 8.45 yards per carry on 38 attempts. 

Michigan’s run defense gives up an average of 142 yards per game and has allowed six rushing touchdowns.  Their pass defense has give up just fewer than 244 yards per game and has allowed four touchdowns while taking away four interceptions.  It’s no real surprise that Michigan’s defense is a step behind the offense given the attention that’s been paid to the new spread Rich Rodriguez has brought to Ann Arbor. 

How can Michigan State win?

It’s all about consistency.  The Spartans can’t allow themselves to get rattled when Michigan makes a big play.  It’s going to happen.  Obviously the Spartans will want to try to stop those plays from happening, but they can’t let those take them out of their game plan when they do happen. 

Michigan State needs to establish some kind of run game.  Michigan’s pass defense really isn’t bad at all.  Their run defense, though, still leaves a little to be desired.  State needs to get some wheels churning and take advantage of what the Wolverines give them.  Working the ground game will bring the defense in tighter and give the pass game more opportunities to make things happen.

The biggest issue the Spartans will have to address is the run defense.  Tate Forcier is more than capable of throwing the football, but he really doesn’t do it that often.  He doesn’t need to.  Between him and his running backs, the Wolverines usually get a good ground game working.  If the Spartans can find a way to slow that rush attack down, Forcier will have to step up and be more than a running quarterback. 

At the same time, Michigan State will have to work on locking down the pass defense when Michigan gets into Spartan territory.  Allowing ten passing touchdowns isn’t a great thing when you have someone like Tate Forcier on the other side of the line of scrimmage.  He and his receivers are very dangerous and will exploit every opening the Spartans allow, so they’re going to have to find a scheme that will keep Forcier out of his rhythm during those crucial times when the Wolverines are knocking on the door.

The Spartans have only allowed three sacks this year, which is great, and they’ve gotten eight of their own.  Don’t look for the Spartans to add greatly to those totals.  Getting Forcier on the run isn’t necessarily a good thing.  Getting pressure is good, but the Spartans will need to make sure there’s someone nearby to wrestle him down when he starts to run.

How can Michigan win?

For starters, the Wolverines can’t take the Spartans too lightly just because they have a losing record right now.  Michigan State is having some troubles, but that doesn’t mean they’re a pushover and Indiana just gave the Wolverines a big scare last weekend.  Right now, the Wolverines can’t take anything for granted. 

The Wolverines need to do what they’ve done so far this year.  Sound like a cop-out?  Well, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. 

The Spartan run defense is pretty decent, but that’s no reason to give up on the rush attack.  It’s not that good and the Wolverine run game really is that good.  It may be a little slow going at first, but it won’t take too long before Michigan will start getting results.

Now is a good time for Tate Forcier to start flexing his throwing abilities.  He can pick and peck at the Spartan defense to keep them soft, but as soon as he leads the Wolverines into Spartan territory, it’ll be time for him to start going for the gold. 

Defensively, the Wolverines need to get after Kirk Cousins and/or Keith Nichol, whichever one is under center at the time.  The Spartan pass attack is their best weapon, and Michigan needs to take it away.  The Wolverine secondary needs to be very quick and active.  They’ll need to get solid play out of their safeties.  For all the work Michigan does on offense, it’ll be for naught if Michigan State can turn the tables quickly through the air. 

What will likely happen?

Stats are one thing, but games aren’t played with stats.  This is a rivalry of the best kind.  There’s a long history and a lot of hard feelings.  Michigan State needs this win, but Michigan is having the better season.  Still, anything can happen at any time.  There’s no reason to believe Michigan State is going to get blown out.  They’ve hung close in all of their losses and should do the same this time around. 

The question is, can they get over the hump and win a close one?  Can they knock off a ranked opponent?  Michigan does have to come to East Lansing.

Emotions will be running high in this one, no doubt about it. 

In the end, Tate Forcier has engineered a couple of late game drives for wins and Michigan’s offense has too many tools for a struggling Spartan D.  While the fruit might normally be ripe for the Spartans to pick up an upset of a Wolverine team playing a bit higher than their expectations, this isn’t a normal situation.  Michigan wants this one just as much as the Spartans do.  Look for Forcier to put together another great fourth quarter win and knock the Spartans out of conference contention early.

Prediction?

Michigan 34 – Michigan State 30

Purdue vs. Northwestern  Saturday, October 3^rd, 12:00  (BTN)

Why would you want to watch this game?

Purdue has been up and down already this year.  They held strong against Oregon, on the road, losing by only two points, but dropped another close one against 2-2 Northern Illinois the following week.  Their encore was to go punch-for-punch with Notre Dame, dropping a three point loss to the Irish.

Northwestern has been less than spectacular, beating Towson and Eastern Michigan, but losing consecutive games to Syracuse and Minnesota. 

This may be a match of two teams struggling early in the season, but that’s also exactly why this game is worth seeing.  These teams need more positives and this game is a must-win for both of them.

So, what’s the skinny?

Purdue has actually looked pretty good at times.  Every week I’ve talked about RB Ralph Bolden’s amazing 234 yard performance against Toledo.  He started the season white hot.  He’s slowed down a little, but is still a powerful threat from the backfield.

As a team, the Boilermakers are averaging 176.5 rushing yards per game and have nine rushing touchdowns. 

The pass attack averages 244.5 yards per game and has eight touchdowns, but the Boilermakers have also thrown six interceptions.

Defensively, Purdue has allowed 177.5 yards per game on the ground and has allowed nine rushing touchdowns.  Against the pass, they’ve given up 244 yards per game and allowed five touchdowns while picking off four passes.

Break down those stats a moment.  Purdue has allowed almost identical numbers rushing against their defense as their offense has gained.  The same holds true for the pass game.  Their defense is giving up exactly what the offense gains.  They gained nine touchdowns on the ground, but have given up nine as well.  They’ve gained eight touchdowns through the air, and have given up five. 

Okay, that last stat wasn’t quite the same, but a clear picture is beginning to emerge.  For every yard the offense fights to get, the defense gives it right back up again and for every score the offense gets, the defense allows one in return (or nearly so). 

Northwestern’s struggles have been a little more troubling.

While Purdue can at least claim that two of their three losses have come to teams that were either ranked or beat teams that were ranked (Oregon over Cal), Northwestern can make no such claims.  Their wins have come over weak opponents while they’ve lost to the only teams they’ve faced with something resembling a pulse. 

The Wildcats have gained an average of 130.5 yards per game on the ground and have amassed nine rushing touchdowns.  Using the pass, Northwestern has averaged 286.3 yards per game and has earned seven touchdowns while throwing four interceptions. 

The Wildcats have allowed an average of 130.5 yards rushing and have given up eight touchdowns.  Against the pass, they’ve allowed an average of 205 yards per game and have allowed six touchdowns while picking off six passes.

At first glance, Northwestern looks just like Purdue in that they allow almost exactly what they gain on the ground.  They’ve given up only one fewer touchdowns than they’ve gained running the ball. 

The pass game is a bit different, though.  Northwestern has allowed 81 fewer yards per game through the air than they’ve gained, but have allowed just one fewer touchdowns than they’ve gained. 

Starting to see a trend?

How can Purdue win?

Get Bolden working early and wear down the Wildcat defense.  The 130 yards Northwestern allows per game on the ground is nowhere near as bad as the 177 Purdue allows, but Bolden can stretch those numbers nicely.  Don’t take unnecessary chances with Joey Elliott passing the game into a Northwestern secondary that has averaged 1.5 interceptions per game. 

Defensively, the Boilermakers need to be quick off the line and the ends need to get penetration into the backfield.  Getting the tackles into the backfield is always great, but if the ends can get around the corner, the run will have to go up the middle, right into the linebackers and Kafka will have to step up into the pocket to throw.  He’s not as good when he has to be a pocket quarterback and forcing any team to run the ball instead of throwing it is always a plus. 

How can Northwestern win?

Right off the bat, Northwestern needs to force Joey Elliott into passing the football rather than handing it off.  Elliott has thrown six interceptions despite completing 60% of his passes. 

The Wildcats should also be shooting for turnover.  Besides the six interceptions, Purdue has coughed up five fumbles.  Northwestern should be swiping at the football, punching at it, and going for the pick as often as possible.  The safeties will have to be on the money with their timing, though.  Nothing turns the tide faster than a corner that goes for the pick and misses with no one there to back them up.

Offensively, Northwestern needs to work the ground game.  Purdue’s run defense has allowed far too many yards and the Wildcats need to exploit that.  It not only should keep the chains moving and keep Purdue’s defense on the field, but will do a better job of protecting the football.

What will likely happen?

It’ll be an ugly game.  Both offenses in turn will struggle to move them ball consistently, then will suddenly get hot, then cool down again.  There will likely be two or three games within the game.  Will it come down to who has the better overall offense?  No.  Defense?  No.  It’ll come down to whoever can capitalize on the turnovers.  Each team will likely cough it up or throw the pick at least once.  The questions are: where will that happen and what will the recovering team do with it once they’ve got it.

Ultimately, both teams have a -3 turnover margin, but Purdue has looked better against stiffer competition than Northwestern has.  The Boilermakers will get a much needed conference win at home.

Prediction?

Purdue 27 – Northwestern 24

Minnesota vs. Wisconsin  Saturday, October 3^rd, 12:00  (ESPN)

Why would you want to watch this game?

Despite my sincerest attempts at painting them into a corner, Wisconsin has come out of the blocks at 4-0, including a win over Michigan State to start their ’09 Big Ten campaign.  More than a few people picked Iowa to be the sleeper in the Big Ten, but just maybe Wisconsin has something to say about that.

Minnesota, meanwhile, is 3-1 with their only loss coming to #24 California.  The Golden Gophers have back-to-back road dates at #15 Penn State and #9 Ohio State looming very near in the future.  They need to get a big win over a tough competitor before the wheels come off the cart. 

So, what’s the skinny?

Minnesota wasn’t really blown out by California.  They lost by 14, but considering they put up 21 points against the Golden Bears and were dead even with them going into the fourth quarter, that’s not so bad.  So, if they play that well, how is it that their offensive stats aren’t better?

The Golden Gophers are only averaging 105.75 yards per game running the football with five rushing touchdowns.  Their pass game isn’t a lot better, averaging 221.5 yards per game.  They’ve tossed for six touchdowns, but also given away five interceptions. 

Defensively, Minnesota hasn’t been super stingy against the run.  They’ve allowed 144.5 yards per game and have given up seven rushing touchdowns.  The Gophers have been pretty solid against the pass.  They’ve given up an average of just 213.3 yards per game and four passing touchdowns.  The downside is that they’ve only picked off two passes.

Besides the loss to California, Minnesota won at Syracuse (23-20), against Air Force (20-13), and at Northwestern (35-24).  Neither of their earlier wins was decisive at all, but Minnesota started pulling it together against Northwestern and showed that they can win convincingly over conference opponents.  That Northwestern is fairly weak is of little consequence.  If the Gophers can continue to beat the teams they’re supposed to beat, they’ll find their way to a bowl game again this year.

Wisconsin has had a slightly better start, but hasn’t had the benefit of facing a ranked opponent against which to gauge their true ability.  With wins over Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Wolford, and Michigan State, the Badgers have jumped out to a perfect start, but their opponents have a combined record of 5-11 (4-8 BCS opponents).  It’s not as if Wisconsin has been beating up on competitive teams.

Wisconsin has been playing more traditional Badger ball thus far this season, pounding it out on the ground and averaging an impressive 197.75 yards per game.  They’ve picked up ten touchdowns on the ground.  Passing the ball, the Badgers have averaged 230.3 yards per game and have picked up eight additional touchdowns.  QB Scott Tolzien has only thrown two interceptions.

Against the run, the Badgers are allowing an average of 145.75 yards per game and have allowed four rushing scores.  Against the pass, they’ve averaged 226 yards per game and have succumbed to eight touchdowns.  They’ve also picked off seven passes this season so far. 

The Badgers aren’t doing anything really fancy and they’re not doing it against anyone noteworthy.  They’re just pounding the ball down the field and finding ways to score.  Their defense could be better, but allowing 226 yards through the air isn’t so terrible unless you factor in that they haven’t really faced a passing offense capable of truly scorching anyone. 

How can Minnesota win?

Minnesota really needs to get something resembling a ground game.  Wisconsin’s pass defense may be good enough to slow down Adam Weber, even with star WR Eric Decker on the field with him.  Minnesota overuses Decker and if Wisconsin has any sense at all, they’ll be keying on him all game long.  Duane Bennett and DeLeon Eskridge need to get something going to take pressure off of Weber.  Wisconsin should give them plenty of opportunities.

The Gophers are going to have to get a handle on John Clay and Zach Brown.  Neither has a fantastic average (4.98 and 3.74 ypc respectively), but together they combine for 142.5 yards per game rushing. 

Most importantly, Minnesota is going to have to protect the football.  Wisconsin has seven interceptions and five fumbles recovered with a +5 total turnover margin.  Whatever problems the Badgers may have defensively, it has nothing to do with creating turnovers.

How can Wisconsin win?

Put the game in the hands of John Clay and DeLeon Eskridge.  Let them exploit Minnesota’s run defense and open up better opportunities for Scott Tolzien to work against the pass defense.  The Gophers did hold Northwestern to only 64 yards rushing, but they gave up 163 to California and 261 to Air Force.  Against honest-to-goodness running teams, the Gophers didn’t stack up. 

As is the case with anyone facing Minnesota, the Badgers need to put a lid on Eric Decker.  He is the target of choice for Adam Weber.  Shut down Weber and the Gopher offense is left with a handful of short passes and the run game.  Those aren’t options Minnesota cherishes. 

What will likely happen?

On the surface, Minnesota looks like the better team.  They hung tough for three quarters against California.  They beat Syracuse on the road and they won convincingly over Northwestern.  They also won over a very decent Air Force squad. 

Wisconsin, on the other hand, has made their hay by winning over soft opponents.  Fresno State was perhaps the only team worthy of consideration as a real opponent (lost by only 8 to #10 Cincinnati). 

Sometimes stats don’t tell the whole story, though, and here’s where it comes into play.  Wisconsin has found ways to win the close games already this year.  Sure, they shouldn’t have been close to begin with, but there are quite a few teams that play down to the level of their competition.  Winners win, plain and simple.  So far, Wisconsin has found ways to continue doing that.

Minnesota is poised to repeat what happened to them last year.  They beat on the teams they’re supposed to beat on, but can’t find ways to get it done against the tougher competition.  Right now, Wisconsin is the tougher competition. 

This game will stay close through three quarters, but as the fourth rolls around, Wisconsin’s run game will have worn down the Gopher defense and Wisconsin will once again find a way to march down the field and put in the winning score(s).

Prediction?

Wisconsin 21 – Minnesota 20

Illinois vs. #15 Penn State  Saturday, October 3^rd,  3:30  (ABC Regional)

Why would you want to watch this game?

How will Penn State react now that they’ve lost their first game?  Were they really exposed by Iowa or was it just the bad weather and some bad luck?  After Ohio State destroyed Illinois last week, Penn State will need to do the same this week to show that they’re still on par with the Buckeyes.

Illinois has to get something going fast.  At 1-2, this is far from the beginning they wanted to their 2009 season.  Granted, Illinois has played some pretty good competition already this year.  Missouri is just outside the Top 25 and Ohio State is in the Top 10.  Those are the Illini’s two losses.  A win at home over the Lions could show that Illinois is still a player in the conference.

So, what’s the skinny?

Illinois has faced some pretty tough competition.  The one weak opponent they’ve encountered (Illinois State), they punished to the tune of 45-17.  Missouri is technically #26, Ohio State is #9, and now Penn State is #15.  Illinois has definitely not taken the easy road.  In fact, it’s probably one of the toughest opening schedules in the country. 

The problem is, though, that they’ve not done anything with it.  Losing 9-37 to Missouri was a bad omen.  Annihilating Illinois State was a feel good moment, but it didn’t really mean anything other than that the Illini were still better than their smaller in-state cousin.  Getting shut out by Ohio State 30-0 just reminded Illinois that they’re not up to speed with the top players in the conference, let alone the nation.

It’s been the Juice Williams show for a couple of years and, frankly, the story is getting old.  There’s no big secret to shutting down the Illini – get after Williams.  The receiving corps has been underwhelming.  Illinois is only throwing for 155.7 yards per game and have only thrown one touchdown.  Williams has thrown three interceptions without a touchdown and Eddie McGee has given up two interceptions against his lone touchdown.

On the ground, Illinois is running for an impressive 192 yards per game and have scored six times.  Illinois has four different runners, besides Williams, that have had good success, with sophomore Jason Ford leading the pack.  Ford has a remarkable 9.81 yard-per-carry average and has one of the touchdowns.

Defensively, Illinois has given up 761 yards and six touchdowns through the air, for an average of 253.7 and two touchdowns per game.  They’re not getting much pressure on opposing quarterbacks with only four hurries in three games.  They’re not picking up much down the field either, only picking off two passes.

Against the run, Illinois is allowing an average of 132.33 yards per game and have allowed three touchdowns.

Illinois isn’t one-sided.  They’re a quarter sided.  Only half the offense really works and both aspects of the defense have been weak.

Penn State has been beating up on weaker opponents throughout the early season.  The Lions have had convincing wins over Akron, Syracuse, and Temple.  In those three wins, they’ve scored 31, 28, and 31 points respectively.  Then, when confronted by a team with a great defense, but no real offense, Penn State couldn’t get the job done. 

Led by Evan Royster, Penn State has averaged 127.25 yards per game running the ball, (Royster averages 76.25 ypg).  The Nittany Lions have run the ball in four times for scores. 

Through the air, Penn State averages 247.5 yards per game and has thrown nine touchdowns and six interceptions.  Three of those came against Iowa, so the Lions were averaging an interception per game through their first three games. 

It’s no secret that defense is Penn State’s true strength right now.  Against the run, Penn State is allowing only 75.5 yards per game and has given up only one touchdown on the ground.  Against the pass, the Lions allow an average 158.3 yards per game and have given up just two touchdowns through the air while picking off five passes.

Again, Penn State has built these stats against generally weaker opponents.  Still, even against Iowa, they were rock solid on defense.  That game came down to turnovers and special teams play.  The Lions only allowed one score from Iowa’s offense, and pretty well made the Hawkeyes look completely inept handling the ball.

How can Illinois win?

The Illini are going to have to play some pretty inspired defense.  Penn State isn’t the most explosive offensive unit in America, but they can move the football and put points on the board.  Their defense, though, will pick on Juice Williams and Jason Ford all day long and will probably be pitching a shutout much like Ohio State did.  Illinois is going to have to play equally tough defense to give their offense as many chances as possible to finally break the Penn State defense.

Illinois is going to have to find some kind of balance on the offense as well.  Jason Ford is an exciting runner, and I’ve no doubt that he’ll put some yards in the stat books against Penn State.  He’s not going to be able to carry the game, though.  Williams is also a good runner, but it’s pretty well a forgone conclusion that Penn State will do whatever it can to shut him down.  They’ve got to find a balance that will keep Penn State guessing.

Watch the turnovers!  Despite getting two interceptions against Iowa, Penn State gave up three picks and a fumble that ended up being their demise.  Illinois can’t let Penn State turn the tables on them this week.  The Illini defense just isn’t strong enough to be giving away opportunities to a team like Penn State.

How can Penn State win?

Keep playing tough defense, especially against the run.  For all of the coverage Juice Williams get by the media, Jason Ford is arguably the MVP of the Illinois offense this year.  He’s the one putting up consistent yardage and putting defenses back on their heels, not Williams.  If Penn State can lock him down and force Williams to do more with his arm, they’ll win the battle nine times out of ten.

Penn State can lean pretty heavily on Evan Royster this week.  Illinois’ rush defense isn’t that strong and Royster should be able to move the ball and put points on the board, almost single handedly. 

Lastly, protect the football.  Ford and Williams are dangerous enough that Penn State can’t afford to beat themselves again by handing the ball over. 

What will likely happen?

Illinois may move the ball from time to time, but they’ll find scoring against Penn State just as tough as it was against Ohio State.  The Nittany Lion defense will keep the Illini in check.

Meanwhile, Royster will run through the Illini defense and put up big numbers this week.  He’ll open up the game nicely for Daryll Clark to start generating some passing yards. 

In the end, Penn State will be much too tough for the Illini to tame.

Prediction?

Penn State 33 – Illinois 9

Indiana vs #9 Ohio State  Saturday, October 3^rd, 7:00  (BTN)

 Why would you want to watch this game?

Believe it or not, Indiana might not be that bad.  They’re 3-1 and can at least boast a very near victory over a ranked opponent.  While they might not be that exciting, the Hoosiers are quietly putting together a decent season.

Ohio State, on the other hand, is playing like typical Ohio State.  Since dropping in the last minute to USC back in week two, the Buckeyes have shutout Toledo and Illinois while racking up over 30 points in each contest.

Waiting in the wings for the Buckeyes, however, is still undefeated Wisconsin.  Could the Buckeyes overlook Indiana while thinking ahead to the Badgers?

So, what’s the skinny?

Indiana took a couple of weeks to get their Pistol Offense going in the direction they wanted it to.  They struggled to get by Eastern Kentucky 19-13, and then followed that up with a 23-19 win over Western Michigan.  The Hoosiers finally got the offense rolling a little better when they traveled to Akron and put up 38 points en route to a 38-21 win to stay undefeated.  Then came the first real test of the season.

Indiana went on the road to the Big House in Ann Arbor, Michigan.  Given that Michigan was also undefeated, had knocked off Notre Dame a couple of weeks earlier, and had destroyed both Western and Eastern Michigan, it looked like Indiana was about to be thoroughly exposed as a sheep in wolf’s clothing.  Instead, the Hoosiers led Michigan 26-21 going into the fourth and were still up 33-29 with just over two and a half minutes left in the game.  At 2:59 left to go, however, Michigan retook the lead and never gave it back.  Still, for nearly thirteen minutes, Indiana kept Michigan on the ropes.  Few people saw that coming.

Indiana hasn’t quite accomplished what they wanted in boosting the run game.  The Hoosiers are averaging 159.25 yards per game on the ground versus 166.92 yards per game last year.  That average still is pretty decent and they’ve gotten eight touchdowns via the run.  Through the air, Indiana is averaging 239 yards but has only picked up three touchdowns while throwing four interceptions.

The Hoosier run defense hasn’t been all that bad, allowing only 94.25 yards per game.  They’ve given up five rushing touchdowns.  Against the pass, the Hoosiers have allowed 233 yards per game and have succumbed to five touchdowns while picking up five interceptions.

Much of the Ohio State Hate-fest has started to simmer down.  There have been plenty of other story lines out there to discuss.  The Buckeyes just feel like yesterday’s news.  

While the nation was busy turning their attention to Florida, Alabama, Penn State, Iowa, and other interesting stories, the Buckeyes have shut out their last two opponents and quietly worked on keeping themselves in close enough range to leap back into one of the top spots when someone falters (and they will). 

Ohio State has averaged 181 yards rushing and has scored seven rushing touchdowns.  Through the air, Ohio State is averaging 186 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions given up. 

Even though Chris “Beanie” Wells has moved on, Terrelle Pryor, Daniel Herron, and Brandon Saine have been combining to keep Ohio State’s run game alive and well.  Pryor and Saine both have well over five yards per carry averages.  Herron isn’t faring as well statistically, but he’s getting the bulk of the carries and keeping the ball moving forward more often than not. 

Defensively, Ohio State is allowing just under 100 yards per game and has given up four rushing touchdowns.  Protecting against the pass has been a real strength though, allowing 159 yards per game and giving up only two passing touchdowns.  To counter, they’ve intercepted the football six times.

How can Indiana win?

As difficult as many have found it to be, Indiana has to close down the run lanes.  Ohio State has a pretty solid offensive line, but Indiana’s linebackers are going to have to be very mobile and they’ve got to be paying close attention to what’s going on.  Terrelle Pryor will gladly pull down the ball and run with it, and he’s dangerous when he does.  The linebackers will have to be very quick to keep up with him and catch his reads.

Indiana can’t get sucked into thinking they have to throw the football.  It won’t work against this defense.  Keep tweaking on the run game and use the pass attack only enough to keep the defense honest.  The offensive line is going to have to be quick off the line and very tough with their run blocking.

How can Ohio State win?

Stop the run.  Demetrius McCray and Darius Willis are good running backs.  They won’t be easy to stop, but Ohio State’s defense is more than capable.  Slow down those two and force Indiana into their pass game.  The Hoosiers have thrown four picks in four games.  Get them throwing and look for the opportunity to take the ball away.

Ohio State should run the ball.  They do it fairly well.  Certainly, Indiana’s run defense has been pretty decent, but that’s against lines that were generally weaker than the one Ohio State is fielding.  Let the big boys push people around and get the ball churning on the ground. 

Terrelle Pryor will have a real chance to shine, if he doesn’t blow it.  Most defenses struggle a little against an option attack and few run it better than Pryor does.  Just pound into his head that if and when it comes time to throw, he has to be careful about his target selection and make sure his passes are on the money.  Indiana is one of those teams that can hurt you if you come into this game asleep at the wheel. 

What will likely happen?

Indiana’s performance against Michigan was fun, and just maybe it’s a sign of things looking up for the Hoosiers.  Don’t expect a repeat, though.  While Michigan may be much improved over last season, you can’t draw a comparison between them and Ohio State just yet. 

The Buckeyes beat the teams they’re supposed to beat and Indiana falls squarely into that category.  The Hoosiers may make some neat plays and they may even stick around for three quarters or so.  Ohio State has a penchant for allowing lesser teams to hang tough sometimes.  That doesn’t mean Indiana is going to still be there at the final bell.  In fact, if the last two weeks are any indication, Ohio State is getting very serious about putting teams away early and not giving them a chance. 

Terrelle Pryor will keep the Hoosier defense on its heals while the Buckeye D will swarm all over Indiana. 

Prediction?

Ohio State 27 – Indiana 10

Game of the Week:   #22 Michigan at Michigan State

How could it be any other game?  The Spartans loath the Wolverines and aren’t ready to hand back the title of “best team in Michigan” yet (even though that’s practically already been done).  Emotion alone should make this a great football game.  Now that Michigan is ranked, though, there’s another element involved.  State can regain a fraction of their lost cred by knocking off the Wolverines and get a big boost by doing it in front of their home crowd. 

Player to watch:  Wisconsin QB Scott Tolzien

Wisconsin is a running team that can sometimes pass, and they’re undefeated after four games.  They’re coming up against (arguably) their toughest competition to date, though.  How will Tolzien handle things if the run game doesn’t produce as he hopes?  Also, how will he react if Minnesota burns the Badger defense and he has to take the game on his shoulders? 

Upset Alert:  Michigan State over Michigan

Besides what I said above, this is one of those in-state rivalries where anything can happen.  Just because the Wolverines look better and are ranked, doesn’t mean that they’re an automatic.  The Spartans will likely play their best ball to date.  It’s definitely possible, that’s all I’m saying. 

Final Thought:  How interesting would it be if we exit this week with Purdue and Minnesota undefeated in conference play and Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State not?