Big East Preview: Week 4 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Mark Noe   
Thursday, 24 September 2009 04:57

Big East Preview

Game of the Week

Fresno State (1-2) at Cincinnati (3-0)

12:00pm Big East Network

 

When Cincinnati has the ball:

QB Tony Pike
QB Tony Pike; Doug Benc Getty Images
If QB Tony Pike isn’t on your Heisman watch list you better re-evaluate the field. Pike has completed 70% of his passes for 923 yards and 8 TDS in three games. If that isn’t worthy of at least some Heisman talk, then we have a problem with the current standard. The yardage and completion percentage is impressive, but more importantly he has a 4:1 TD to INT ratio helping to keep the opposing offenses off the field. Pike will go to the air plenty of times in this game looking for WRs Mardy Gilyard and D.J. Woods who each have over 200 yards receiving and combine for 5 TDs. Pike has difficulty, if you can call it that, throwing on first down (68% completions) and struggles when they are winning by less than a touchdown (52%, 2 INTs). In these situations, the Bearcats turn to RB Jacob Ramsey who has carried for 161 yards. The yardage isn’t impressive, but he averages over 8 yards per carry which shows exactly how the run game will hurt any team that keys on the pass. Fresno State best chance may come by keeping the game close for as long as possible. A strategy such as this will allow the Bulldogs to key more on the run with Pike struggling in the air. Another step in the direction of a win for Fresno State will be to shut down Pike and Co. in the first half. Cincinnati tends to get ahead early in the game and then coast. The Bearcats have yet to prove they are a team that can score late when the game is on the line. Of course, this is mainly due to always being in the lead late in the game.

When Fresno State has the ball:

Cincinnati

 

Fresno State

359 ypg

Passing Offense

225 ypg

201 ypg

Passing Defense

198 ypg

157 ypg

Rushing Offense

269 ypg

69 ypg

Rushing Defense

176 ypg

51%

3rd Down Conversions

46%

82%

Red Zone Conversions

70%

2

INTs Thrown

6

7

Opponent INTs Thrown

1

-4

Time of Possession

+6

If you’re the type of person which picks game based on team record and rankings, then you risk the chance of getting this game wrong. Fresno State may be 1-2 overall, but their offensive production has been nothing short of impressive generating nearly 500 yards total offense per game. QB Ryan Colburn has thrown 55% of his passes for completions for 637 yards and 6TDs. While these numbers are solid, he struggles with interceptions (6 INTs). First and Third downs are troublesome for the Bulldog quarterback as there is a significant reduction in his completion percentage and an increase in picks in those situations. Down field, will 4 wide receivers that have more than 100 yards each on the season. The Bulldogs utilize the spread offense and get the ball around to enough players that defenses can have a hard time keeping up. If Colburn starts to struggle, look for the ball to be given to RB Ryan Matthews who has exploded in three games; averaging 9 yards per carry for a total of 447 yards and 4 TDs. When Fresno State is winning by a TD or less, he gets the job done on the ground.

Cincinnati will have to pressure the quarterback enough to eliminate one aspect of Fresno State’s high octane offense. Luckily, the defense has 11 sacks which show they are capable of taking down the passer often. Fr. LB Walter Stewart will be the biggest threat to quarterback and Colburn will have to know where he is before calling the snap.

Prediction:

Cincinnati’s offense is very similar to that of Boise State, and Fresno State showed they couldn’t keep pace. Any team that gives the Bearcats enough room to breathe easy has been left in the dust.

Pick: Cincinnati

 

 

The Little Guy with a Rock to look out for….

RB Dion Lewis
Matt Freed/Post-Gazette

Dion Lewis

RB, Pittsburgh

With 398 yards and 5 TDs already this season, plenty of Pitt fans have quickly forgotten LeSean McCoy. I’m expecting a 150 yard rushing performance by the Panther’s running back as Pitt squeaks by N.C. State.

 

 

 

Upset Alert

Pittsburgh (3-0) at North Carolina State (2-1)

Both teams can score points as well as move the ball up and down the field which means the winner will be decided by the defenses.

N.C. State Defense

6.5 Sacks by the Defensive Line, 9 Sacks overall, 8 QB Hurries, 8 Pass Break Ups, 2 FF, 2 INTs

 

Pittsburgh Defense

5 Sacks by LB Adam Gunn, 14 Sacks overall, 15 QB Hurries, 7 Pass Break Ups, 5 FF, 3 INTs

 

This game will be close, but Pitt gets better when the game is on the line and N.C. State seems to fall apart. This game will follow the same trend.

Prediction: Pittsburgh

 

The Undercards

Rhode Island @ Connecticut

Rhode Island’s defense is atrocious. They allow opponents 475 yards per game total offense while only gaining 361 yards per game.

Pick: Connecticut

 

South Florida @ Florida State

QB Matt Grothe is responsible for 46.3% of South Florida’s offense. With him out, Fr. QB B.J. Daniels will have to pick up the slack, and he doesn’t have the experience to compete with Florida State.

Pick: Florida State

 

Rutgers @ Maryland

The Scarletknights’ offense still seems to be in shambles. They struggled against FIU in both the passing and rushing games. Maryland may be 1-2 overall, the Terps’ running and passing games keep getting better with each game. I think the MTSU loss is just what they need to wake up.

Pick: Maryland

 

Maine @ Syracuse

QB Greg Paulus hit his stride against Northwestern. He went 24 of 35 for 346 yards, 2TDs and an INT.

Pick: Syracuse

 

Louisville @ Utah

U of L is full of surprises. Their defense is better than expected, but they have struggled with turnovers and 3rd down conversions. Not a recipe for a win.

Pick: Utah

 
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