It’s a quiet week in the SEC, three teams are idle and there’s only six games being played involving teams from the conference.  Three of those games mark the opening of conference play. 

Game of the Week:

South Carolina (1-0, 0-0 SEC) at Georgia (0-1, 0-0 SEC): 7:00 PM on Saturday 12 September (ESPN2)

Richard Samuel finds running room; AP; Sue Ogrocki

This is the first game featuring pitting two teams from the SEC East against each other.  The game has taken on additional significance as a result of lackluster performances by both the Gamecocks and the Bulldogs last week.  The loser of this game finds themselves at a severe disadvantage early in the season.  South Carolina outperformed NC State, but can thank their defense for the win.  Spurrier’s offense only managed 256 yards.  Statistically, Georgia hung in there with Oklahoma State, netting 257 yards of offense to the Cowboys’ 307 yards.  Georgia’s defense played relatively well, but three turnovers proved to be the difference last week in Stillwater.  With both offensive units struggling, this game will be won by whichever team manages to improve their offense more and hold onto the football.     

Offensively, South Carolina has to get the running game going.  Brian Maddox needs to do better than he did against the Wolfpack, and he’ll have to do so against a stronger defense.  Maddox doesn’t need to be spectacular, just be effective enough to open up options in the passing game.  When Stephen Garcia does look downfield, Moe Brown will likely be blanketed.  Garcia needs to find Freshman receivers Tori Gurley and Alshon Jeffrey.  Gurley (6’5”) and Jeffery (6’3”) are big targets who will be mismatches for most of the Georgia secondary.  These two only combined for 5 catches and 39 yards last week, but improved play and involvement from these two will give the Gamecocks a chance.

Defensively, Carolina needs to put the pressure on Joe Cox.  Cox had two costly turnovers last week in the fourth quarter and the Gamecocks will try to keep him from finding a rhythm.  Containing Georgia’s run game will force Cox to get the job done with his arm, and that’s when the blitz will really be coming.  An injury to Georgia’s starting left tackle Trinton Sturdivant raises questions about the Georgia offensive line.  Sturdivant’s almost identical injury last year was a key injuring that led to a patchwork offensive line which hampered the ‘Dawgs all of last season.  Is depth on the offensive line about to be an issue again?

Georgia’s offense has to answer the call in the trenches and open up holes for Richard Samuel.  Samuel gained a respectable 87 yards on 20 carries against Oklahoma State and will need to shoulder the load for the Bulldogs.  Tight ends Orson Charles, Aron White, and fullback Shaun Chapas can aid the cause by getting to the second level and putting a body on linebackers and safeties.  An effective run game will keep the pressure off Joe Cox and bring the play action pass into the picture as a weapon.  When Cox looks to throw, A.J. Green seems to be the only reliable target; However, Samuel and Chapas have had success catching passes out of the backfield.

Defensively, the plan looks like Carolina’s.  Defensive coordinator Willie Martinez needs to ensure that his unit keeps the anemic Gamecock running game in check and contain Stephen Garica.  Garcia couldn’t consistently move the ball through the air last week, and Georgia has better athletes than NC State.  Double coverage on Moe Brown will force Freshman receivers Gurley and Jeffery to be the primary targets.  Personally, I don’t think they’re ready.

Barring a horrendous turnover differential, expect the Bulldogs to feed off the home crowd energy and a strong defensive performance.
 

Pick:  South Carolina 10, Georgia 17

Player to Watch:

Jonathan Crompton; QB Tennessee

Jonathan Crompton pitches to Montario Hardesty; AP; Wade Payne

Crompton’s stellar performance in week 1 is tempered by the fact that the Vols played a very weak Western Kentucky team.  UCLA will provide a more honest assessment of Crompton’s abilities.  I think Lane Kiffin will ask Crompton to do less, allowing Montario Hardesty and Bryce Brown to carry the load (and the ball) for Tennessee.  A strong performance by Cromption this week won’t answer all the questions about his improvement, but a weak showing spells trouble for the Vols as they begin conference play the next week against Florida.   

Upset Alert:

Vanderbilt (1-0, 0-0 SEC) at LSU (1-0, 0-0 SEC): 7:00PM on Saturday 12 September

Vanderbilt returns a good number of starters from last year and showed they had the athleticism to hang with some of the stronger SEC schools.  While I don’t see a third place SEC East finish in Vandy’s future, they still have the ability to give LSU fits.  Solid play from a pair of Freshman tailbacks is giving hope to the faithful in Nashville, and it will be interesting to see if Zac Stacy and Warren Norman can put up solid numbers against the LSU defense.  The Commodores’ chances hinge on the effectiveness of this rushing attack, because the pass game was pretty much average against Western Carolina (granted, when you rush for 433 yards, who needs a passing game).  

   
Vanderbilt’s front seven is also solid, but an exodus of players in the secondary leaves them vulnerable to the pass.  There’s athleticism back there, just not much experience.  Les Miles would like to pound the ball with Charles Scott, but I think he’ll find more success downfield to Terrance Tolliver, Brandon LaFell, and the explosive (yet oh so short) Trindon Holliday.  Jordan Jefferson looked solid against Washington, going 11 for 19 with 172 yards and 3 TDs.  He can end the talk about shaky quarterback play with a solid showing at home, or he can get overconfident and get surprised by a weaker conference opponent

I think Vandy makes this one closer than the line thinks it will be, but the close nature of the LSU-Washington game keeps LSU focused in their home debut.  

Pick: Vanderbilt 20, LSU 31

Remaining SEC Games:

Troy at Florida Pick: Troy 7, Florida 55  Another easy non-conference win for the Gators, just not as easy as last week.  Look for an improved passing game and Tebow to play a little deeper into the game as Florida prepares to host Tennessee on the 19th.

UCLA at Tennessee Pick: ULCA 21, Tennessee 34  A balanced rushing attack coupled with Jonathan Crompton making good decisions leads to an impressive Volunteer victory.  Playing in the friendly confines of Neyland Stadium (filled with fans that believe in Kiffin’s squad) helps the Vols maintain focus and energy on their way to soundly beating the Bruins.   

Florida International at Alabama Pick: FIU 9, Alabama 62  This game is a walkthrough for next week’s walkthrough against North Texas.  Look for Greg McElroy to take more chances throwing the ball downfield to his receivers in an effort to build confidence and work on timing

Mississippi State at Auburn Pick: Miss State 20, Auburn 24  There’s a quarterback controversy brewing in Starkville and the Tigers are back to running the football well.  Both Dan Mullen and Gene Chizik are first year head coaches trying to revitalize struggling offenses.  Expect a much higher score than last year’s 3-2 Auburn victory.  Both teams need to do a much better job of holding on to the football.